RALEIGH, N.C. — There were potential playoff previews all around the NHL on Thursday night, and here’s how they finished.
The Rangers beat the Avalanche 3-2. Dallas beat Vancouver 3-1. The Oilers and Golden Knights beat the Kings and Jets, respectively, by matching 4-1 scores, but both games involved empty-netters that altered the optics. Heck, even the Islanders, on the outside of the playoff bubble, went into Florida and beat the Panthers 3-2.
And then there was the Red Wings at Hurricanes — a 4-0 Carolina win that ran Detroit’s record to 0-2-1 on this all-important road trip.
The Red Wings had as tall a task as any of those teams Thursday, to be sure. They were in Carolina, in the middle of a five-game trip and without Patrick Kane — who was a late scratch after catching the illness that has ravaged the Red Wings locker room lately.
But a lopsided loss, with their backs against the wall? It’s another gut punch in what’s been a month full of them, for a team that just one month ago was in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot.
Some thoughts on where that leaves the Red Wings, both in the playoff race and beyond.
1. It should be noted that Detroit’s players and coaches seemed to feel OK about the first period, despite being outshot 15-3, because the actual scoring chances were much more even. There is merit to that: Natural Stat Trick had the all-situations high-danger chances at just 4-3 in Carolina’s favor in the first period and, remarkably, tied 10-10 at the end of the game.
Just as with Tuesday’s overtime loss in Washington, though, the time for those silver linings has passed. Detroit got nearly every result it needed elsewhere in the league Thursday — the Capitals and Flyers both lost in regulation — so it didn’t lose any ground, but it didn’t make any up, either.
Ben Chiarot said after this latest loss, when asked about the team’s concern level: “I liked (the game in) Nashville a lot, I liked Washington a lot, tonight a little tougher — it’s a top-flight team we’re playing against. I wouldn’t say the concern level is high. We like the way our game is going right now, and we know the goals will come.”
He might be right about that. That’s how close the race is and how up-for-grabs the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot feels. And I’ve written about the benefits of that chase.
But with each passing game, even if the gap doesn’t widen, it’s getting harder and harder to treat this so-called race as such, when Detroit (and every other team it’s competing with) seems so unable to grab control of it.
Final. pic.twitter.com/IFtVefhikt
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 29, 2024
2. Where Thursday’s game took a nosedive was in the second period, with two Hurricanes goals in the first six minutes. First, the Red Wings had a blown coverage on a track that left Sebastian Aho wide-open for a backdoor goal, which Derek Lalonde explained as such:
“We duplicated on it. The ‘D’ slid, (Michael Rasmussen) should have took the backdoor guy. So if you can see in the split second — and it happens quick — that’s why you middle-lane drive, but you had Ras and (Jeff Petry) basically covering the driver and leaving the most dangerous guy on the weak side. So, it happens, we’re usually pretty good with tracks. It’s just a misplay. Unfortunately, that’s the goal that got them going.”
Less than a minute later, Petry was called for a tripping penalty, and Carolina quickly capitalized with a Seth Jarvis goal that seemed to leave James Reimer frozen. By period’s end, after a Martin Necas backdoor goal and a Brady Skjei squeaker, it was 4-0. At that point, the game might as well have been over.
“It’s obviously hard to push when you’re down 4-0,” Moritz Seider said. “We still didn’t give up on it. I think that’s a big positive. We stayed together as a team, and maybe that’s something to take away from the game.”
Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde saw a misplay on the opening goal allowed. (James Guillory / USA Today)
3. Detroit has three goals in its last three games, all of them in the Washington loss, and that’s a far cry from the team that hovered around the top five in league scoring for much of the year. All season, though, many have warned that the Red Wings were due for regression. It’s hitting them like a train right now.
When asked what the Red Wings need to do to pick up a couple of points by the end of this trip — with games remaining in Florida and Tampa Bay — Chiarot answered simply: “Keep doing what we’re doing. We’ve just got to find the back of the net. We’re playing well defensively.”
Detroit has plenty of players who can score. It has 13 players in double digits, including 11 of the 12 forwards it dresses nightly. The question might be, though, are they built to score in these types of games? When they need goals that don’t come on the rush or with plenty of space in the offensive zone?
Those kinds of goals are harder to generate on pure skill or with hard shots from the outside. Two of their three in Washington came right at the top of the crease, but they’ve struggled to find them consistently of late.
4. That speaks to the many questions this Red Wings skid is posing for their future, even beyond whether they get into the playoffs. Detroit has prospects in Marco Kasper and Carter Mazur who have scored those kinds of goals in the past, but both are in the AHL. Can either be expected to be a major solution to the issue in 2024-25? And will two rookies really be the answer to a forward corps that simply must get better defensively?
Or how about in goal, where Reimer may have been put in a bad position on two of the four goals Thursday but was beaten clean on the other two? He’s a free agent, so it’s not all about him, but the reality is the Red Wings have shown this season they need above-average (or better) goaltending to win consistently. That’s what they were getting in January and for much of February, and it’s been a notable area of regression of late.
That doesn’t mean Detroit’s goalies are at fault lately — that blame gets shared by 18 skaters and a coaching staff — but there is nonetheless a reality Detroit is going to have to confront at some point: Whereas teams like Carolina can win despite their goaltending or when getting average nights in the crease, the Red Wings as currently constructed have been hard pressed to do so.
5. And, of course, there’s the blue line. Petry has been fans’ preferred scapegoat to a degree that has now become ridiculous. He’s had plenty of struggles this season, but homing in on him exclusively obscures a defense corps with much more widespread issues. Seider is Detroit’s No. 1, and a remarkable talent, but he looks overextended right now by what’s been an obscene workload all season. Shayne Gostisbehere has produced at a high level but plays with plenty of risk in his game to do so. Justin Holl is a $3.4 million scratch nearly every night, with two more years left on his deal.
No one of those things is a five-alarm fire, but to improve them, some kind of upgrade feels imperative.
Seven of Detroit’s eight roster defensemen are still under contract or team control next season, though. Can Detroit realistically bring the same group back for another go-around? Or, perhaps more worryingly, can it realistically do anything about it?
All of these issues are being brought to the forefront seemingly nightly.
(Top photo of Detroit’s Jeff Petry taking a shot past Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin in the first period Thursday: James Guillory / USA Today)
