Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that F-16 fighter jets are legitimate targets for Moscow – even on third-country airfields – is an escalation of Russian rhetoric that could potentially lead to a war, according to Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
“Of course, if they are used from the airfields of third countries, they become a legitimate target for us, wherever they are,” Putin was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency TASS, adding that since the US-manufactured fighter jets can carry nuclear weapons, Russia must “take this into account”.
For Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi of the Stockholm Defence University, Putin’s statement is mainly a rhetorical escalation, but the threat should be taken very seriously.
“If Putin wants a war with NATO, that’s how you start it. Then it will be a third world war”, Paasikivi told Swedish press agency TT on Thursday.
According to him, the fact that the F-16 can be equipped with nuclear weapons fits in well with the Russian narrative, which revolves around the image of the West as the great aggressor.
“For Putin, it is important to constantly present the West as the major threat to the domestic audience. The West’s so-called nuclear threat is at the centre of the entire Russian narrative”, Paasikivi said.
According to the Swedish lieutenant colonel, Putin is concerned that the F-16s – which are expected to arrive in Ukraine by the summer – will significantly increase Ukraine’s combat capability.
“The Kremlin is being a bit more forceful. The same threats have been made in the past, but to so explicitly identify the F-16s and strike targets in the West is new.”, he said, adding that the Russians feel compelled to try to scare the West into obedience”.
According to Paaskivi, Russia knows it cannot win a war against NATO, but there are no guarantees.
“Russia has started the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War and is waging it ruthlessly, without following the laws of war. We cannot trust Russia,” he said.
Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium have pledged to deliver 45 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, rising to 60 by the end of the year.
Western allies are currently training Ukrainian pilots to fly the planes, with the first cohorts completing their training earlier this month.
(Charles Szumski | Euractiv.com – Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski, Euractiv.com)
