Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.
Here’s where things stand at the moment:
NFL playoff picture during Week 17
AFC playoff picture
yz – 1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3), AFC North champions: They brought home the division crown, conference first-round bye and home-field advantage by pummeling Miami on Sunday. The only question left for the regular season is how Baltimore approaches its finale against archrival Pittsburgh and whether the Ravens will give many (or any) key players multiple weeks off. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers
x – 2. Miami Dolphins (11-5), AFC East leaders: They saw their hopes for home-field advantage go up in a massive cloud of smoke Sunday in Baltimore. Lose next week, and the Dolphins likely won’t be playing any postseason home games as such a defeat would confer the division title to Buffalo. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6), AFC West leaders: Coal in the collective K.C. stocking. Not only did the reigning champs fail to secure their eighth consecutive division crown on Christmas by stumbling against Las Vegas, they played themselves out of any shot at the AFC’s top spot. But one more win, and division is theirs. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7), AFC South leaders: Much-needed win over hapless Carolina means the Jags are one win from repeating as division champions by virtue of what would be a 5-1 record against AFC South foes. Remaining schedule: at Titans
x – 5. Cleveland Browns (11-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve now won four in a row, enough to graduate to postseason for the third time since their 1999 rebirth. However Baltimore’s win Sunday locks the Dawg Pound into the fifth seed and a likely wild-card round visit to the AFC South champions. Remaining schedule: at Bengals
6. Buffalo Bills (10-6), wild card No. 2: They’ve got pretty much everything they wanted – meaning end the regular season on a five-game winning streak next weekend in Miami, and Buffalo will have resurrected itself into AFC East champions … again. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins
7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7), wild card No. 3: Huge game next week against Houston could determine if they’re a wild card … or even kings of the AFC South. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans
8. Houston Texans (9-7), out of playoff field: Huge game next week at Indianapolis could determine if they’re a wild card … or even kings of the AFC South. Remaining schedule: at Colts
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), out of playoff field: If nothing else, they took a big step toward salvaging Mike Tomlin’s career-long streak of non-losing seasons as a head coach after completing a season sweep of Cincinnati. Still, head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis are among Pittsburgh’s problems. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Ravens
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), out of playoff field: A winless mark (0-5) against the division and a 3-7 record in conference are shaping as season-killing detriments … to say nothing of an upcoming trip to Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Browns
11. Denver Broncos (7-8), out of playoff field: And Russ is cooked after that Christmas Eve debacle – though mathematically this team, now on a two-game skid, will remain alive a bit longer for the AFC West and a wild card. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Raiders
NFC playoff picture
yz – 1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4), NFC West champions: They won this weekend, while the Eagles and Lions didn’t – meaning the Niners won’t be leaving the Bay Area for another football game … unless they reach Super Bowl 58. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams
x – 2. Dallas Cowboys (11-5), NFC East leaders: They extended their winning streak at AT&T Stadium to 16 games by virtue of a dubious win over Detroit on Saturday night. But “America’s Team” reclaimed first place in the division Sunday thanks to Philly’s loss and a better record (8-3) in conference games. Beat Washington next week, and the NFC East’s run of non-consecutive champions since 2005 will extend another year. Remaining schedule: at Commanders
y – 3. Detroit Lions (11-5), NFC North champions: They went for the win in Dallas, and came up short … apparently. Looking more like they’ll be welcoming Rams QB Matthew Stafford home in a few weeks as Lions can’t be worse than third seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8), NFC South leaders: They came up short Sunday against New Orleans, Tampa’s four-game winning streak halted. but Bucs can still earn third straight division crown by beating Carolina in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Panthers
x – 5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), wild card No.1: Shocking loss to Arizona puts exclamation point on reigning NFC champs’ late-season meltdown. They need a win next week plus a Dallas loss to retain NFC East throne. Remaining schedule: at Giants
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7), wild card No. 2: They narrowly escaped the Giants on Sunday afternoon. LA now just needs another win or Seattle loss Sunday to clinch a wild card. Remaining schedule: at 49ers
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve pulled wins out of the fire two weeks in a row, Week 16’s victory in Nashville moving the Seahawks ahead of Minnesota. Next, a near de facto playoff game against Pittsburgh. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cardinals
8. New Orleans Saints (8-8), out of playoff field: Crucial win at Tampa on Sunday keeps them alive for division title or wild card. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons
9. Minnesota Vikings (7-8), out of playoff field: Sliding fast, but wins over the Saints and Packers could help. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8), out of playoff field: They need some wins and breaks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears
11. Chicago Bears (7-9), out of playoff field: Still a faint heartbeat for a wild card after four wins in five weeks. Remaining schedule: at Packers
12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9), out of playoff field: Still a faint heartbeat for the NFC South championship after three losses in four weeks. Remaining schedule: at Saints
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division title
z – clinched first-round bye and home-field advantage
NFL playoff clinching scenarios in Week 17
Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:
- PIT loss or tie + CIN loss or tie
Kansas City clinches playoff berth and AFC West division title with:
- KC win or tie OR
- DEN loss or tie
LA Rams clinch playoff berth with:
- SEA loss OR
- GB-MIN tie
Seattle clinches playoff berth with:
- SEA win + GB-MIN tie
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.
