It’s our favorite time of year, folks. We’ve officially entered one of the best parts of the NFL season where we’ve got football, turkey and then more football.
Gotta love it.
With that in mind, I’m wagering on a few games on the schedule that span from Thanksgiving Thursday to Monday Night Football.
Let’s dive into my best bets for a stacked NFL Week 13.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, NOV. 28
Dolphins @ Packers (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Are you aware that the Green Bay Packers are 8-3 and have the third-best record in the NFC?
They also rank sixth in overall DVOA, meaning they are the sixth-most efficient team in all the NFL. The Packers rank third on offense and 11th on defense.
They are legitimately a good NFL team.
It is fair to mention that they do have close wins against some bad competition, but they blew out the 49ers, beat the Cardinals and beat the Texans. Green Bay is now on a short week, playing at home, with weather on its side.
Yes, Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovalioa is bad in the cold weather. And in Green Bay, the temperature will be around freezing or colder. But that is not why I’m picking the Packers to cover here.
The Dolphins have played an easy schedule and this is a level up in competition on a short week and on the road. They have beaten the Patriots, Raiders and won in Los Angeles against the Rams. However, the Packers are a different beast. Their ability to pressure and find unique ways to blitz quarterbacks will get after Tagovailoa, who will be looking to throw the ball quickly.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins run defense is suspect and against the Packers, that’s less than ideal. Run defenses project worse in shorter weeks when they have less time to heal and less time to prepare for a run game.
I like the Packers run game to handle business on Thursday night.
PICK: Packers (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Herd Hierarchy: Packers reappear in Colin’s Top 10, Eagles soar in Week 13
SUNDAY, DEC. 1
Steelers @ Bengals (1 p.m., CBS)
What is the golden rule? If you don’t remember, it’s to wager on Mike Tomlin’s Steelers when he’s an underdog.
After winning outright as a ‘dog two weeks ago against the Ravens, Tomlin is now 49-20-1 against the spread (ATS) in that spot. Against divisional foes, that number is 81% against the spread. It does not matter in this game, but wagering against the Steelers when they are a favorite is also a good wager.
But back to the Steelers getting three points this Sunday.
We know their defense is good and will match up well against a potent Bengals offense because they can rush the passer against the Bengals offensive line. They can also control the run game because of that matchup.
It’s a huge advantage for the Steelers.
In the five games Joe Burrow has faced Pittsburgh, he’s been sacked on average three times and has thrown eight interceptions — the most against any team. It’s always a battle.
While I might not like the Steelers offense because it is predictable, the Bengals defense is predictably bad.
Cincinnati allows just a tick under 27 points per game and the Bengals are also ranked 27th in both pass and rush defensive DVOA. Not a good squad on defense.
Pittsburgh’s offense is better with Russell Wilson, but it does only three things: runs the ball, moves Russell Wilson’s launch point and has him throw go-routes.
I don’t think the Bengals can stop any of those.
I’ll take the Steelers to cover.
PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Tom Brady’s 3 Stars of Week 12: Saquon Barkley, Myles Garrett, Tua Tagovailoa
MONDAY, DEC. 2
Browns @ Broncos (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
The Browns are such an up-and-down team. And that inconsistency can show up in a full game, a half or even a drive.
Take two weeks ago. They looked awful off a bye against New Orleans. Could not play any defense. Despite a ton of yards for Jameis Winston, they didn’t score enough. Then, four days later against the Steelers, they looked fantastic in the first half, jumping out to an early double-digit lead.
The second half of that game, the Browns committed three turnovers, yet somehow did enough to win the game. They cannot be trusted, and now they are back on the road against a good team.
The Broncos defense is outstanding, and Winston is going to throw the ball to it often. Cleveland’s run game — with a beat-up offensive line — will not be able to be the workhorse the Browns would like against Denver. The Broncos defense is fourth in DVOA and third in points allowed. The Browns just aren’t going to score much.
Then you have the Broncos offense, which is getting better each game. Quarterback Bo Nix’s odds are getting shorter by the week to be Offensive Rookie of the Year and Denver’s efficiency rankings continue to improve. It is averaging 27 points per game over its last three, while the Browns defense is 22nd in scoring.
Cleveland’s defense has a fierce pass rush, but it isn’t good if the Browns can’t get home. An injury to the linebacking core has hurt the run defense, and the secondary isn’t as good as expected.
I like the Broncos to cover.
PICK: Broncos (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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