How Maharashtra election results may affect stock markets on Monday

How Maharashtra election results may affect stock markets on Monday
The thumping for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to be a big trigger for the stock markets on Monday. Investors are likely to cheer for political stability and centre-state synchronisation as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are now the ruling force in more states than in 2019.

A gap-up start for Sensex, Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank aren’t ruled out. The Mahayuti coalition has promised to focus on planned urban development in Mumbai, including freeing up open spaces from encroachments. This could give real estate developers, construction, and infrastructure stocks a boost.

ALSO READ: Maharashtra Election 2024: Full list of winners

Some of the expectation was already visible in the surge in Indian stocks on Friday after most exit polls projected a win for the incumbent alliance, which has promised to make Maharashtra a $1 trillion economy by 2028.

It’s a sharp turn of fortunes, and sentiment, in favour of the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which saw a sharp fall in voter support in the Parliamentary elections whose results were declared in June.

“Having the same government as a central government is even more positive. This also strengthens the government at center in terms of what they want to do because on and off their strength is questioned post general election. But Haryana election outcome vindicates that the popularity of the government is intact. This only strengthens and embolden the government also, it’s very important from Maharashtra state perspective, which is an important state from economic growth perspective, where we need lots of sort of policy reform, direction, infrastructure development, which can become what more fast and clear and strong,” Vikas Khemani of Carnelian Asset Management & Advisors told CNBC-TV18 in a conversation.

Watch the entire conversation on the latest Maharashtra election results here:

Congress, which seemed to be on a path to revival, led by its performance in Maharashtra, has seen a sharp reversal. Congress’ own tally in Maharashtra in the 2024 assembly election is the worst-ever in the party’s history.

Seats in Maharashtra 

Election year Congress  BJP
1962 215
1967 203
1972 222
1978 62
1980 186 14
1985 61 16
1990 141 42
1995 80 65
1999 75 56
2004 69 (Sharad Pawar splits) 54
2009 82 46
2014 42 122
2019 44 105
2024 15 (provisional) 133 (provisional)

Adani Group stocks will definitely be on the watchlist. While Chairman Gautam Adani is in the news for many wrong reasons, the Indian billionaire is perceived to be closely aligned with the Modi-led BJP. One of Adani’s pet projects, the Dharavi redevelopment, was an election issue too.

While Congress may have won the Dharavi constituency, the overwhelming state-wide majority for the BJP-led alliance may be seen as advantage for Adani, and, possibly, fewer hurdles for the Dharavi redevelopment project.

The winning side had also promised multi-storeyed automated parking systems in urban areas of Maharashtra, to address parking and traffic issues. Watch out for Mumbai-based developers like Lodha, Oberoi, and Godrej.

A bunch of welfare measures are also likely to have an impact on consumption stocks, lenders, renewable energy producers, drones, diagnostic centres, and solar cell makers.

Watch out for stocks like IdeaForge as the incoming government has promised to deploy drones to reduce human-wildlife conflict.

Other big promises in the Mahayuti manifesto that could affect consumption include the following:

Monthly financial assistance of ₹2,100 for women under the Ladki Bahan Yojana

Loan waivers for farmers, an increase in income support from ₹12,000 to ₹15,000, and an increase in minimum support price for some crops.

A monthly stipend of ₹10,000 for a million students.

₹15 lakh interest-free loans borrowers from the Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Classes (OBC).

While the details of the proposed health card aren’t known, the proposal for a government-funded annual health check-up is likely to give diagnostic stocks a sentiment boost.

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