The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have looked all season like they were on a collision course for Super Bowl LIX. And of course, the Chiefs would first have to beat the Buffalo Bills in what would surely be an epic AFC Championship Game.
It’s what many predicted before the start of the regular season. It’s what the entire NFL world seems to be expecting.
Yawn.
When’s the last time the NFL playoffs unfolded exactly as everyone expected? When’s the last time the best teams in the regular season ended up in the Super Bowl? When’s the last time the postseason was completely predictable? (Note: Please pay no attention to 2022).
It’s better to ignore the “chalk” predictions, because nobody really wants that. What makes the NFL playoffs so exciting is when we expect the unexpected. It’s the upstart teams making runs that really bring the thrills. The surprising stars, the shocking plays, the mighty underdogs — that’s what makes the playoffs great.
So with that in mind, put the chalk back in the box and get ready for the surprises — like these five bold predictions for the NFL playoffs that I guarantee will come true:
1. Regime Change
The Kansas City Chiefs will NOT reach the Super Bowl this year.
That’s only happened once in the last five years, but it’s going to happen again. This might be the most vulnerable 15-2 team in NFL history. They have been playing with fire all season long. The fact that 11 of their 15 wins have been by one score or less shows you how close they were to being 4-13 instead. I mean they don’t even have a Pro Bowl quarterback anymore.
They’re lucky they’re in the AFC and didn’t have to live in, say, the NFC North this season. But the AFC playoffs are still going to provide some difficulties for them. The odds are that they’ll get to the AFC Championship Game since they only need one measly win to get there. But that’s where their reign will end. They’ll likely face the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills. Either of them is capable of putting an end to the Chiefs Dynasty once and for all.
Or at least until next year.
2. Midnight in Minnesota
It’s fitting that the Minnesota Vikings‘ first playoff game will end right around midnight (Eastern time, at least) on Monday because that’s when Sam Darnold’s Cinderella season will end and he’ll turn back into a pumpkin. The Vikings might have gone 14-3 this season and made a run at the top seed in the NFC, but they are going to lose their first-round game in Los Angeles against the Rams.
The seeds were planted on Sunday night in Detroit when Darnold, in arguably the biggest spot of his career, had his worst game since his famous “seeing ghosts” game back when he was with the Jets. He completed 43.9 percent of his passes and honestly, if his receivers hadn’t kept bailing him out, that percentage would have been in the 30s.
Rams coach Sean McVay is going to make sure his defensive coordinator, Chris Shula, goes to school on that film and finds a way to keep the ghost-blitzes coming. Darnold is having an amazing season — an MVP-caliber year — but he didn’t suddenly turn into Patrick Mahomes (pre-2024 Mahomes, I mean). He’s still a limited quarterback. And in a big game — his first-ever playoff game as a starter — we’re all going to see why.
3. A Command Performance
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will lead the Commanders to the franchise’s first playoff win in 19 years.
It’s usually a pretty safe bet to pick against rookie quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs. They don’t often fare well or go very far. In fact, only five have ever led a team to a conference championship, and none have ever even reached a Super Bowl as a starter. Daniels likely won’t be the first in the Super Bowl, but don’t rule out that conference championship game.
At the very least, he will continue his outstanding regular season with a stellar performance in a win in Tampa on Sunday night. Bucs coach Todd Bowles is known for creative defensive schemes that can confound young quarterbacks, but Daniels has really grown beyond that. He’s not only great at making the right reads, but he’s been brilliant at improvising outside of the pocket. He is already one of the five best two-way quarterbacks in the game.
That’ll be good enough for at least one win. And don’t be surprised if he gives the Lions quite a scare in the divisional round, too.
4a. Bills are always due
When the Buffalo Bills lose — and they will lose — it will be in excruciating fashion. At some point late in the game, their fans will see the light at the end of the tunnel. Victory will seem to be in their grasp. They might even look ahead and see a clear path to that elusive championship. And then either a gust of wind will blow their game-winning field goal just a little bit wide, or their opponent will find a way to go 99 yards in 14 seconds for a game-winning touchdown, or maybe …
… You know what? This happens to the Bills all the time. Everyone in Western New York expects it. And I said no “chalk” predictions, so let me try No. 4 again.
4b. Harbaugh Bowl, 2.0
Did you enjoy the first Harbaugh Bowl back in Super Bowl XLVII? Did you learn everything you ever wanted to know about their extended family back then? Well, it’s been 11 years and a lot of those stories were overshadowed by the blackout in the Superdome that night, so it’s probably about time we all get a refresher course on the First Family of Football (coaches division).
John’s Ravens and Jim’s Chargers (wait, maybe it’s reversed? … no, that’s correct) will meet in the AFC Championship game. It won’t be easy. John’s Ravens will have to win a divisional game on the road in Buffalo and Jim’s Chargers will have to knock off the two-time defending champion Chiefs in Kansas City. But they will, because who’s got it better than the Harbaughs? That’s right. Nobody.
The Ravens actually have a team perfectly built to win in Buffalo, with a punishing run game that will even work in the snow. The Chargers have the tougher task, but while they lost twice to the Chiefs this season, both were one-score games — 17-10 and 19-17. There’s no doubt the third time will be a charm.
As for which Harbaugh will come out on top … Well, John did win that Super Bowl and family bragging rights many years ago.
5. Like I told you back in the summer … Eagles-Ravens in LIX.
I wasn’t wrong then, and I’m not wrong now. Super Bowl LIX will feature the Baltimore Ravens and the Philadelphia Eagles, with the Ravens winning, 27-24.
After the Ravens beat the Chargers in the AFC Championship Game and the Eagles beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game, New Orleans will get ready for teams led by the two best running backs in football. And after a year of debate about the true value of running backs and whether it’s smart to pay them, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry will take center stage.
In fact, they will even dominate the game. They’ll combine for more than 400 yards and four rushing touchdowns. The Ravens will even close out the game with a nine-minute, clock-guzzling drive filled with nothing but Henry runs. When it’s over, Henry will have more rushing yards than Lamar Jackson will have passing yards, but Jackson will still win the MVP because we all know that is a quarterback award.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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