The NDTV Poll of Polls further predicts 25-37 seats for the JMM-led INDIA bloc and 5-9 seats for others. Matrize’s projections align with this trend, estimating 45-50 seats for the NDA and 18-25 seats for the INDIA bloc, and 1-4 seats for Other, leaving the state’s political future hanging in balance until the final results.
Polling for the second and final phase, covering 38 of the 81 assembly seats, ended on Wednesday, November 20. The elections witnessed significant voter turnout across the tribal-dominated state, as the JMM-led INDIA bloc and the NDA vied for control of the legislative assembly.
A total of 528 candidates contested in this election, including Chief Minister Hemant Soren, his wife Kalpana Soren (both JMM), and Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri (BJP). The INDIA bloc, buoyed by welfare promises, is battling the BJP’s aggressive campaign centered on Hindutva, alleged corruption in the JMM regime, and issues of infiltration from Bangladesh.
The polling, conducted in two phases—on November 13 and November 20—saw over 1.23 crore voters, including 60.79 lakh women, exercising their franchise across 14,218 polling stations.
The INDIA bloc, banking on tribal welfare and development schemes, faced stiff opposition from the BJP, which raised issues of corruption, Hindutva, and alleged Bangladeshi infiltration. While INDIA leaders such as Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge promised continuity in welfare policies, BJP heavyweights, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, criticised the current government’s governance.
The INDIA bloc consists of JMM (43 seats), Congress (30), RJD (6), and CPI(ML) (4), with some friendly contests expected. On the other hand, the NDA has BJP contesting 68 seats, AJSU Party 10, JD(U) 2, and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 1.
2019 Elections
The JMM-led coalition emerged victorious in 2019, securing 47 seats and ending the BJP’s rule in the state. Within the alliance, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) claimed 30 seats, the Congress won 16, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) secured one seat. The BJP, on the other hand, managed 25 seats. Other parties such as JVM-P won three, AJSU Party secured two, while CPI-ML and NCP each claimed one seat. Additionally, two Independent candidates were successful.
2014 Elections
The 2014 elections were a turning point, as the BJP formed a stable government under Raghubar Das, the first to complete its full term in Jharkhand. The BJP contested 72 seats, winning 37 with a 31.26% vote share. The JMM won 19 of the 79 seats it contested, securing 20.43% of the vote share.
The Congress, RJD, and JVM(P) fared poorly, with JVM(P) managing to win eight seats before merging with the BJP. The AJSU Party, now an NDA ally, contested eight seats and won five, marking a strong regional presence.
With exit polls yet to be announced, all eyes are on whether Jharkhand will choose continuity with the Hemant Soren-led INDIA bloc or shift back to the BJP-led NDA.
