Trade Setup for December 24: 200-DMA remains elusive for Nifty as conviction lacks at higher levels

Trade Setup for December 24: 200-DMA remains elusive for Nifty as conviction lacks at higher levels

After a gap-up opening, the Nifty 50 index traded within a narrow range before closing at 23,753.45, remaining below its 200-day moving average (DMA).

Company Value Change %Change

The market ended higher but retreated from intraday peaks, breaking a five-day losing streak. Financial stocks outperformed, with the Nifty Bank gaining over 1%. Major heavyweights, including Reliance Industries, ITC, and HDFC Bank, contributed significantly to Nifty’s recovery.

Shares of India Cements Ltd., which was recently acquired by India’s largest cement company UltraTech Cement Ltd., rallied as much as 11% on Monday. The upmove in the stock price was seen after the Competition Commission of India (CCI) cleared over ₹7,000-crore deal, wherein billionaire Kumar Mangalam Birla-promoted UltraTech Cement will acquire a majority stake in India Cements.

“Today’s gains might appear to be a relief rally, but the markets quickly lost early positivity as sentiment remains bearish,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking. “Occasionally, oversold heavyweights like HDFC Bank and RIL draw buying interest, as we saw today. Their substantial weight in the indices often lifts other major stocks, but the real challenge lies in sustaining these gains.”

Mood at global stock markets remains upbeat at the start of the holiday-shortened week.

What do the Nifty50 charts indicate?

After showing sharp weakness in the last three sessions, the Nifty showed relief rally in Monday’s trading session and closed the day higher by 165 points.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the near-term trend of the Nifty remains weak and the present upside bounce could be a sell-on-rise opportunity for the short term. Immediate resistance to be watched around 23900-24000 levels. The next lower support is at 23500.

Going forward, a decisive move above 23,850 could trigger a smart recovery towards 24,000/24,400. On the downside, support is placed at 23,540; a breach below this level may lead to further weakness in the index, believes Rupak De of LKP Securities.

According to Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities, 23650/78300 and 23550/78000 will act as key support zones, while the 200-day SMA or 23850/78800 and 24000/79300 could serve as key resistance areas for the bulls.

What do the Nifty Bank charts indicate?

The Nifty Bank ended the session at 51,317.60, posting an impressive gain of 1.10%, driven by strong buying interest.

A notable rebound in the daily RSI from oversold levels suggests a revival in positive momentum. The hourly chart highlights signs of a short-term base formation, hinting at further consolidation or upside, said Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities.

“While the index remains below the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs, its position above the 200 EMA underscores sustained strength in the broader trend. The resistance is 51,800, and a move above this level could lead to a test of 52,100. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 50,700, providing a short-term base for the index,” Mehra said.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50’s futures across series shed 2.1% in Open Interest on Monday. Rollovers at the start of the expiry week are at 36%. The December futures are trading at a premium of 16.3 points from 38.1 points earlier. Nifty Bank’s futures across series shed 5.8% in Open Interest on Monday. Current rollovers are now at 53%.

Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio at 0.84 from 0.8 earlier.

SAIL has exited the F&O ban today.

Bandhan Bank, Granules India, Hindustan Copper, Manappuram Finance and RBL Bank remain in the ban list.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for December 26 expiry:

On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 23,800 and 24,000 have seen Open Interest addition for this week’s weekly expiry.

Strike OI Change Premium
23,800 33.6 Lakh Added 83.5
24,000 29.5 Lakh Added 28.3
23,900 13.2 Lakh Added 48.35
23,850 13.1 Lakh Added 63.6

Nifty 50 on the Put side for December 26 expiry:

On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 23,500 and 23,800 saw Open Interest addition, while the 24,000 strike saw further shedding for this week’s weekly expiry.

Strike OI Change Premium
23,500 33.6 Lakh Added 25.1
23,700 30.1 Lakh Added 69
23,800 21.8 Lakh Added 113.25
24,000 12.4 Lakh Added 257.25

Short covering was seen in these stocks on Monday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:

Stock Price Change OI Change
Macrotech 2.76% -35.37%
ITC 2.01% -33.55%
JSPL 3.20% -31.20%
Delhivery 3.20% -31.13%
Varun Beverages 2.50% -28.50%

Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Monday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:

Stock Price Change OI Change
CDSL -2.63% -38.85%
Dalmia Bharat -2.34% -36.85%
HUDCO -1.83% -32.81%
LTIMindtree -1.70% -30.68%
Nykaa -4.92% -25.55%

Here are the stocks to watch ahead of Tuesday’s trading session:

Indian Bank: Central Bank Of Sri Lanka (Financial Intelligence Unit) imposes penalty of Sri Lankan Rupees (LKR) 2 million on the bank for failure to conform to the provisions of Financial Transactions Reporting Act, No.6 of 2006 (FTRA) of Sri Lanka.

MIC Electronics: Competent Authority approves capacity cum capability assessment for GPS location based Public Address & Passenger Information System (PAPIS) and LED Destination Boards in AC & Non-AC ICF & LHB Coaches.

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