Dating back to the middle of the 2022-23 season — more than two seasons’ worth of games ago — no team has been a better point-spread bet than the Detroit Lions. Heading into Week 13 this season, the Lions were not only on a 32-9 run straight up (SU), but also 32-9 against the spread (ATS).
However, Detroit has failed to cover in each of its last three games — two ATS losses and one push. So is that keeping bettors off the Lions in NFL Week 16 odds, on the road vs. the Chicago Bears?
Well, no.
“That’s not deterring anybody from betting the Lions in this spot. The public still loves the Lions,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Lions vs. Bears and the even meatier matchups — the Houston Texans vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Baltimore Ravens — as we dive into NFL Week 16 betting nuggets.
Swing Shift
When Patrick Mahomes exited the Chiefs’ 21-7 victory over Cleveland due to an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, oddsmakers had to redo their calculus for Week 16 NFL odds. A week ago, as Caesars Sports posted lookahead lines for this week’s matchups, the Chiefs opened as 4-point home favorites.
In the wake of the Mahomes injury, and the strong expectation that he wouldn’t play this week, Caesars reopened Sunday night at Texans -2.
“We had a decent amount of Texans money at -2,” Feazel said.
That led Caesars to move Houston to -3. That’s a 7-point swing from the look-ahead line. Which sounds about right, considering we are talking about Patrick Mahomes.
So on Tuesday, when Mahomes practiced and indicated he was hoping to play Saturday, the pendulum made another massive swing, toward Kansas City (13-1 SU/6-8 ATS).
“Now we’ve seen the line go from -3 Texans to -3 Chiefs. Our opinion is that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league,” Feazel said, while adding a caveat for this season. “But this year, the Chiefs aren’t relying on an explosive offense to win games.”
Because as Feazel added, the K.C. offense just isn’t as explosive this year. Still, the public is on the Chiefs vs. Houston (8-6 SU/6-8 ATS) for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday.
“To no one’s surprise, we are seeing Chiefs money, coupled with the Under,” Feazel said.
However, the total has actually climbed in this game, due to the now seemingly available Mahomes. The total opened at 41.5, got as low as 39.5, then rebounded to 42 by midweek.
All that noted, the Under hit in Kansas City’s last three games.
Nick’s Week 16 Tiers: Ravens & Steelers rivalry week, Bengals & Dolphins facing elimination
NFL Rocks On FOX
FOX is home to multiple noteworthy matchups in NFL Week 16 odds. We’ll get back to that Lions-Bears game in a moment, but there are two more showdowns that will surely attract a lot of betting attention.
The first is Steelers vs. Ravens, at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Caesars opened Baltimore -7, went to -6.5 on Sunday evening and -6 on Monday. As of Wednesday night, the spread is Ravens -6 (-115).
“The Steelers were able to steal that first win vs. Baltimore,” Feazel said, alluding to an 18-16 Pittsburgh win at home in Week 11. “This week, we’re seeing a lot of Ravens money, which is not a surprise with this being a revenge spot.
“There’s some Steelers moneyline bets, but action is mostly Ravens on the spread, coupled with the Under. And I think Ravens money will be exacerbated if George Pickens remains out for Pittsburgh.”
Pickens, the Steelers’ leading receiver, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He missed last week’s loss at Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU and ATS, while Baltimore is 9-5 SU/7-6-1 ATS.
In Sunday’s early window on FOX, at 1 p.m. ET, it’s Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders. The Eagles (12-2 SU/9-5 ATS) are on a 10-game win streak, going 7-3 ATS in that span.
Washington (9-5 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has won its last two games following a three-game slide. But Jayden Daniels and Co. were not impressive in a 20-19 victory at New Orleans last week.
“The Commanders were 7-point favorites last week and almost lost to two backup quarterbacks,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing more Eagles money, which is not surprising, with the Eagles taking over as NFC favorites.”
Indeed, Philly is +200 to win the NFC, surpassing Detroit (+230). The Eagles also moved to No. 2 in Super Bowl odds at +430, behind favored Buffalo (+400).
NFC Rankings: Where do Eagles, Lions and Packers sit?
Limping Lions
Detroit has suffered a boatload of key injuries on defense this year, most notably to disruptive defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a season-ending broken leg in Week 6. The Lions (12-2 SU/9-4-1 ATS) have 15 defensive players on injured reserve.
It showed at home in Week 15 vs. Buffalo. Josh Allen & Co. racked up yards and points in a 48-42 victory.
Still, Detroit opened as a 7-point road favorite vs. Chicago (4-10 SU/7-6-1 ATS) in Week 16 NFL odds, for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. The Lions dipped to -6.5 on Tuesday at Caesars.
Feazel noted a little skepticism in the Lions, hence that line move down. But as noted above, the public betting masses are on Detroit this week, though perhaps not for the usual reason.
“That probably has more to do with the opponent than with confidence in the Lions,” Feazel said.
Detroit is also minus running back David Montgomery, whose season might be over with an MCL injury.
“That’s gonna make an impact, and that’s probably why we’re seeing some Under money in this game,” Feazel said.
The total actually climbed early this week, from 46.5 to 48.5. But it then backed up a notch to 48.
Bills-Lions, Vikings-Chargers highlight Colin’s Top 5 Must-See SB LIX matchups
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay’s first play this week is a two-team, 6-point teaser. For those unfamiliar, a teaser bet is much like a parlay but with a more favorable point spread on the teams being bet.
With that favorable spread comes a smaller payout. But teasers can be a worthwhile pursuit. So, McKay is taking the Denver Broncos +8.5/Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 as a teaser play. Denver travels to face the Los Angeles Chargers in the Thursday night game, while Cincinnati is home vs. Cleveland on Sunday.
“Denver is coming into this game more healthy than a banged-up L.A. team that won earlier this year in Denver. It’s two different teams to close the season,” McKay said. “And Cincinnati will have too much offense for a Cleveland team that’s going with its third-string QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson.”
The Browns announced Tuesday the benching of Jameis Winston, who took over seven games ago after Deshaun Watson suffered a torn Achilles.
McKay is also on the Steelers-Ravens tilt on Saturday, taking Pittsburgh +6.5. But as Feazel noted, McKay said to pay attention to who is and isn’t playing.
“Keep an eye on the injury report here, with [wideout] George Pickens and defensive end T.J. Watt,” McKay said, noting Pickens (hamstring) and Watt (ankle) are questionable. “Pittsburgh won 18-16 earlier this season, and this game could be a low-scoring battle again for the two rivals.”
Finally, McKay likes Carolina +4.5 at home against Arizona.
“Carolina laid an egg as a favorite last week vs. Dallas, but is now back in the role of underdog,” McKay said. “QB Bryce Young was playing well before last week, and he will not have as much trouble vs. a mid-level Arizona defense.”
Can Michael Penix Jr. UPLIFT the Atlanta Falcons after Kirk Cousins’ struggles?
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
Perhaps the high-rollers are using a little more of their money this week on holiday gifts. As of Wednesday night, Caesars Sports had just one six-figure bet to note in NFL Week 16 odds.
A Nevada customer put $125,000 on Eagles -3 (-125) vs. the Commanders. If the Eagles win by more than 3, then the bettor will profit $100,000, for a total payout of $225,000.
Here’s a leftover from NFL Week 15 Monday night: $40,000 on Raiders +5.5 (-105) vs. Falcons. Atlanta didn’t play well at all, and in fact, the Falcons benched QB Kirk Cousins in the aftermath, but they won 15-9.
So the bettor didn’t get the cover. And there’s a lesson to be learned here. The Raiders closed as either 6- or 6.5-point underdogs, depending on where you bet — it was -6 at Caesars. That half-point/full point proved critical. A bet at +6 nets a push and a refund, and +6.5 would’ve been a winner.
If you’re betting the underdog, and the line is +5.5, then maybe wait until closer to kickoff and see if you can get +6 or even better. Just a little public service announcement.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
