| Company | Value | Change | %Change |
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The Nifty is down 550 points in the last three trading sessions. It shed another 140 on Wednesday. At one point, it even broke below last Friday’s low of 24,190, falling to levels of 24,150. By close, the bulls huffed and puffed their way to defend both the levels by a narrow margin, closing just below 24,200 and just above 24,190.
The broader markets, outperformers until now, also succumbed to some selling pressure for the second day running. 74 stocks on the Midcap 100 index and 77 stocks on the Smallcap 100 index ended with losses.
Even as the market struggled through the day, the session belonged to the three new listings on Dalal Street – Vishal Mega Mart, MobiKwik and Sai Life Sciences, all of which had a stellar debut on the bourses. The shares ended with gains between 40% to 90% from their issue price and now have a combined market capitalisation of ₹70,000 crore. You can read more on that here.
Last Friday’s low of 24,190, followed by Wednesday’s low of 24,149 now become key levels to defend for the Nifty. But with the kind of selling seen over the last few sessions, the markets may be due for a bounce due to the oversold setups. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the Nifty on its daily chart is now at 45. An RSI reading below 30 indicates that the index or the stock is “oversold.”
All eyes are now on the US Federal Reserve and its interest rate decision later tonight. The market is factoring in a 25 bps rate cut from Jerome Powell & Co., but greater attention will be paid to the FOMC’s commentary on the future rate trajectory. Reaction of the FOMC statement on the US markets, particularly the Dow Jones, which has been on its longest losing streak since 1978, will also be keenly watched.
The Fed aside, one must also keep in mind that Thursday is the weekly options expiry session of the Nifty 50 contracts and the last two weeks have shown the kind of extreme swings the market has had on the day of expiry or a day after that. That could also keep the bulls on a cautious footing.
Foreign institutions continued to remain net sellers in the cash market, although they were outbought by their domestic counterparts.
Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One said that the 24,000 level on the Nifty, followed by 23,900 will be the key support on the weekly expiry session. On the upside, 24,400 is the immediate hurdle for the index and a broader uptrend will only resume once the Nifty crosses 24,750 on the upside.
The short-term Nifty trend appears to have reversed down, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. The next lower support is between 24,000 – 23,900 and immediate resistance is at 24,350 – 24,400 levels, he added.
Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan said that a new leg of selling on the Nifty would begin once the index breaks below the 24,150 mark, which happens to be Wednesday’s low. In this case, he expects the index to fall to 24,000. On the flip side, holding above 24,250 can take the index back to 24,400 levels.
The Nifty Bank has now shed 1,400 points in the last two trading sessions. From looking to test 54,000 on the upside, the index is now fighting to hold 52,000 levels on the downside. 11 out of the 12 index constituents ended with losses on Wednesday, while all 12 had ended in the red a day before. Losses are primarily being led by HDFC Bank, whose shares have declined in six out of the last seven trading sessions.
Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates said that the Nifty Bank has formed a big red candle on the daily chart indicating weakness and has also broken the previous week’s low of 52,265. Therefore, 52,500 will become a strong barrier for the index in the short-term, while on the downside, support lies at 51,680, which is the 100-Day Exponential Moving Average. He advises booking profits on every bounce till the index remains below 52,500.
The momentum on the Nifty Bank is moderately bearish and the hourly RSI has entered the oversold zone, indicating the potential for a short-term pull back. Support remains at 51,800 but Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that a break of the 51,700 on the downside can take the index down to 51,270 levels.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Supreme Industries | 2.54% | 19.08% |
| Indraprastha Gas | 4.83% | 9.13% |
| Coromandel International | 1.08% | 8.93% |
| Prestige Estates | 1.83% | 7.33% |
| Marico | 1.31% | 5.38% |
Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| IPCA Laboratories | -3.11% | 22.16% |
| NMDC | -6.04% | 20.08% |
| Federal Bank | -5.34% | 17.46% |
| Adani Green Energy | -4.09% | 15.81% |
| SJVN | -2.45% | 9.41% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Chambal Fertilisers | -1.01% | -7.04% |
| PVRINOX | -6.37% | -5.47% |
| HUDCO | -3.37% | -4.30% |
