A few more weeks of the NFL regular season, and then we’ll be rolling right into playoffs.
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.
There are still plenty of great ways to wager on these games as the season winds down.
So let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 15, including a three-team teaser.
Bills @ Lions (4:25 p.m. ET, Dec. 15, CBS)
This game features the best player in the league this season against the best team.
Josh Allen saunters into Detroit off one of the greatest games a quarterback has ever had. In a 44-42 loss to the Rams, he had three passing touchdowns and three rushing. The defeat dropped Allen to 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS) indoors.
And he’s getting reinforcements with top tight end Dalton Kincaid returning from injury, as well as rookie WR Keon Coleman. Expect the Bills to move the ball with ease against Aaron Glenn’s man-to-man defense.
The Lions play man-to-man defense at one of the highest rates in the league since Glenn took over in 2021. This is bad news against Allen, who can dominate with his legs — especially late in the season. The Bills like to save Allen’s legs for when it matters most, which is in December and January. And his carries have gone up this month.
The Lions have struggled all season defending running QBs, from Kyler Murray to Sam Darnold. Yes, they won those games, but Allen is vastly superior to those guys.
I’m concerned about the Bills defense. That unit was just run over by the Rams, to the tune of 42 carries and 137 yards, but nothing longer than twelve. Buffalo lives in the nickel defense, and that might have to change because Detroit will match those 42 carries with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit hasn’t lost in three months, and I’m the only idiot willing to try and fade them.
It failed miserably a few weeks ago against the Colts, but it worked last week against the Packers.
PICK: Bills (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
PICK: Bills ML
Are the Bills asking too much from Josh Allen?
Three-team, 7-point teaser
Washington -7.5 to .5
Miami +3 to +10
Colts +4.5 to +11.5
Anytime I get in a funk and I feel lines are inflated, I look to teasers. Ideally, I like teasers where I can tease down through key numbers of 7 and 3, or up through the 3 and 7.
Washington is off a bye, is healthy and has new addition Marshon Lattimore, who will suit up for the first time with the squad. And the Commanders get the gift of facing backup QB Jake Haener.
With do-it-all talent Taysom Hill playing, the Saints are 4-4 this season. Without him? That record is 1-4. And now he’s out for the season.
Earlier this season, when Derek Carr was injured, New Orleans went to Spencer Rattler. He started three games and the Saints lost badly in all of them. That’s not all on Rattler. However, he wasn’t great. And now, the 5-8 Saints are headed toward a top-10 pick in the draft.
Oh, and Alvin Kamara missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with an illness.
Expect Dan Quinn to have a strong game plan, Lattimore to embrace the revenge game angle and a healthy Jayden Daniels to roll a very bad defense that ranks seventh in the league in missed tackles.
Tease Washington -7.5 to .5
Can Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders avoid an UPSET vs. New Orleans Saints?
Miami is the latest team “fighting for its season,” but before you take the +3 with Miami on the road, consider a teaser up to +10.
If you remove the game in which Tua Tagovailoa was concussed against Buffalo, the Dolphins have only lost by double digits once and that was on Thanksgiving in frigid temperatures in Green Bay.
This game is indoors, and Miami will be alive until the final whistle. The Texans just aren’t great at anything right now. C.J. Stroud has regressed. His yards per attempt are down from 8.2 to 7.2, his passer rating is down, his QBR is down, his interceptions are up, and his sacks are up.
The offensive line is abysmal — particularly up the middle. And Miami’s defensive line is emerging late in the season. It’s led by Chop Robinson, the rookie from Penn State.
If Jalen Ramsey can turn back the clock a few years and shadow Nico Collins, the Dolphins could win this outright, as the Texans only have two wins all season by more than six points. That was at lowly New England and at terrible Dallas.
Tease Miami +3 to +10
Nick’s Week 15 Tiers: Dolphins & Colts hanging on a thread
The Colts go to Denver for what is basically an elimination game.
And it’s a tough spot. They’re on the road against a Denver team that is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season. That’s the best in the NFL.
Denver has covered three weeks in a row as a favorite. Two of those were extremely lucky, as the Raiders stalled on the 1-yard line in the waning seconds, and the Browns threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute.
Both teams are off a bye, but one thing that could change this game is what Indy DC Gus Bradley does defensively.
He often plays cover-three zone, and Denver rookie Bo Nix has shredded zones all season. He has not fared as well against man. With the extra week off, did the Colts install some man defensive schemes to confuse Nix? One would hope.
Meanwhile, Denver has a huge issue defensively opposite CB Patrick Surtain, who has graded out as the top at his position. The injury to Riley Moss has forced Levi Wallace onto the field, and he has been targeted and shredded the last two weeks.
The Colts love a good deep shot from Anthony Richardson to Alec Pierce, and if Wallace doesn’t have help over the top, expect a couple big splash plays.
And if the Broncos give Wallace help, that softens the run defense for Jonathan Taylor and Richardson. The Colts could be live to win this, and teasing them up above a two-score game gives you coverage for an awful, late Richardson turnover — should he be in comeback mode.
Tease Colts +4.5 to +11.5
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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