We’re going to learn a lot in college football Week 15.
Fans and bettors are about to find out if Georgia can win back-to-back games against Texas, if Ashton Jeanty can rack up even more yards in his already ridiculous season and if my Ducks have what it takes to remain undefeated.
And boy, what fun we’ll have sweating it out until the very end.
But first, let’s dive into my best bets for conference championship weekend.
(All times ET)
FRIDAY, DEC. 6
No. 19 UNLV @ No. 10 Boise State (8 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
I’m going to make a wager on the game play for the Mountain West Conference championship game.
This is a rematch of a previous game where Boise State won 29-24 in Las Vegas. This contest is being played on the blue turf of Albertson Stadium in the cold night air. I have a wagering system where I automatically fade teams from Southern California (like UCLA and USC) when they travel to the Pacific Northwest or the Mountains in November.
It’s cold and bitter and these warm weather teams are not ready for it. The same can be said for UNLV in this matchup.
The Rebels are heading north from the warmth to the cold, and they could have the same fate. The reason I’m not wagering on Boise State is because I don’t like how the Broncos have been playing recently. They’ve had close wins, and they don’t cover against bad teams. Their all-world running back Ashton Jeanty is beat up but still getting a ton of carries. He’s had fewer than 30 carries only once in the last seven games. He will get the ball on Friday night and UNLV knows it.
Jeanty may get his because he’s an incredible talent, but UNLV will be ready for it.
The Rebels will sell out to stop him, which will open up the passing game for Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen to hit some play-action passes. UNLV ranks 110th in the country in allowing pass plays over 10 yards. The Rebels are tied for 93rd in pass plays allowed over 20 yards and 57th in pass plays allowed over 30 yards. You get the picture. They allow a ton of explosive passing plays.
So I’m taking Boise State’s quarterback to throw for more than 219 passing yards. UNLV tries to stop the run, which will allow for more passing game opportunities.
PICK: Maddux Madsen Over 219 passing yards
Alabama & Texas in Joel Klatt’s final CFP bracket
SATURDAY, DEC. 7
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (4 p.m., ABC)
This will be an exciting SEC conference title game between two foes who met earlier in the season.
Georgia won the game 30-15 at Texas, displaying an ability to attack the Longhorn offensive line to blunt the Texas game plan. The Dawgs went up 23-0 and Texas closed it to 23-15 before Georgia took back control again.
Will the game unfold in the same way on Saturday afternoon?
I do not always believe previous matchups should guide the opinion of a current one. Teams are rarely the same as before. And this is more true of Texas than of Georgia.
After the Georgia game, Texas committed to running the football as a core principle of its offense. Quintrevion Wisner, the Longhorns’ primary back in the second half of the season, has rushed at least 17 times in four of five games since the Georgia loss, with 26 carries and 33 carries in his last two games.
The Longhorns also have a Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line, and even without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr, they should be able to avenge their earlier performance against the Bulldogs and rush the ball better. Being able to rush the ball also keeps the offense away from Quinn Ewers — which is what Texas prefers.
Georgia’s offense wants to run the football for the same reasons as Texas and that’s to establish the line of scrimmage and keep the offense from being the Carson Beck show. The more Beck has to throw, the worse the offense can be.
So both teams want to be run heavy against good defenses. They both want to avoid their quarterbacks making mistakes. I believe both squads will start the game with conservative game plans to feel each other out in a rematch.
I like the first half under of 23.5.
PICK: Under 23.5 1st half points scored by both teams combined
CFB Week 15 Best Bets: Georgia vs. Texas, Clemson vs. SMU
No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (8 p.m., CBS)
Instead of taking a side for or against my alma mater, Oregon, I will look toward a total. The team total for Penn State, to be exact.
I just do not believe the Nittany Lions will score more than three touchdowns in this game.
For starters, this offense has struggled to score points in the last three games against Ohio State (twice) and Michigan, both of which Oregon closely profiles. Penn State, despite having good offensive efficiency numbers, does not generate enough explosive plays in these games. The Nittany Lions are not able to block well enough, which should be a huge advantage for a talented and deep Oregon defensive line.
Oregon’s defense ranks second in havoc rate and the defense just sacked the Washington quarterback 10 times on Saturday.
Penn State’s offense revolves around running the football well and getting tight end Tyler Warren open. When the Nittany Lions do not succeed on first down, they get themselves into positions they don’t want to be in and that’s passing the football in must-throw situations.
Oregon’s pass defense is fantastic. When it comes to pass defense, the Ducks rank first in percentage of targets contested, second in percentage of targets wide open, fifth in passing rate and second in adjusted completions. If they are able to limit the rush and limit wide receiver production, plus assume tight end Tyler Warren can get his, it’s unlikely Penn State scores 22.5 points.
I like Penn State Under 22.5 points.
PICK: Penn State Under 22.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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