Thanksgiving has come and gone, as has the college football regular season.
As we wait to find out which teams will participate in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, let’s turn our attention to the NFL.
Thursday Night Football presents a fun matchup and a pivotal game in the NFC playoff race, as the Packers visit Detroit looking to hand the Lions their second loss of the season. The Lions have not lost since Week 3 vs. the Buccaneers, while the Packers sit at an impressive 9-3.
However, Green Bay’s record is currently only good enough for third place in a loaded NFC North.
Both teams played and won on Thanksgiving, so there’s no rest advantage for either. So while I don’t have a strong opinion on this game, after scanning through the options at various sportsbooks, there is one Lions-related bet that got my attention.
At one book, the Lions are -190 favorites (you have to bet $19 to win $10) to be the top seed in the NFC. It’s not surprising that they’re favored with how dominant they’ve been this season, but are they worth a bet? Or is there another team that has better value?
I think there is.
Minnesota Vikings NFC No. 1 Seed (+1100) at FanDuel
The Vikings are a very quiet 10-2.
They were the story of the league in the first month of the season, starting 5-0 with convincing wins over the 49ers, Texans and at Green Bay. They then lost back-to-back games, dropped behind the Lions in the division standings, and have been flying under the radar ever since.
They have incredible weapons on offense, a solid defense and an elite coaching staff. They are one game behind the Lions. However, they would lose the tiebreaker based on the one head-to-head matchup earlier in the season. That tiebreaker, though, can perhaps be wrestled away over the final weeks.
The Lions are the rightful favorite at -190, and the ultra-impressive Eagles deserve to be next on the board, which they are at +190.
But let’s look at the Lions’ schedule for the rest of the season.
How close are the Packers to the Lions?
Following a tough Thursday night game with the Packers, the Lions finish the season with games against the Bills, the 49ers, an outdoor game against a Bears team that typically plays the Lions tough, and then the Vikings in Week 18.
Meanwhile, the Vikings play three of their next four games at home, where they’ll be favorites in each game. Wedged in between is a road game against the Seahawks, which will be a relative coin flip. They’ll be clear underdogs in the Week 18 game against the Lions, but at 11-1 odds, if it comes down to just one game, that’s a pretty solid bet.
Of course, the Eagles can’t be undersold here either, with just two losses heading into this weekend, but I just don’t see any value at the +190 number.
Philly is a heavy favorite this week against the Panthers, but still has relatively challenging games remaining against the Steelers and on the road against the Commanders.
Lions, Eagles, then Vikings is clearly the correct order in terms of likelihood, but the Lions being such a heavy favorite considering their challenging schedule is enough for me to bite on the Vikings at +1100.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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