If one were to look at 2024 through the lens of electoral politics, one certainty emerged: the mind-boggling uncertainty of each electoral verdict! The voters of India truly delivered a diversity dividend in the elections. The year began with the BJP feeling upbeat after securing a hat-trick of victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh by the end of 2023. Confident (some might say over-confident) of maintaining this momentum, they moved forward with optimism. However, the year ended on a more sombre note, with the NDA alliance notching some important victories, while the INDIA coalition found solace in retaining Jharkhand but lost momentum in other electoral contests.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were a high-stakes battle, with an energetic campaign launched by all key players. The BJP-led NDA was aiming for a third term, with an enhanced majority for the BJP on its own. Meanwhile, the Congress played a key role in stitching together a fragile INDIA coalition, which faced numerous setbacks, critical desertions, and many uncertainties.
The BJP’s electoral game plan was carefully crafted. They positioned themselves as the key player within the NDA coalition, setting a tactical target of 370 plus seats for themselves and 400+ for the alliance. These targets reflected the changing power dynamics within the alliance.
2019 vs 2024
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s partners in the NDA had won 50 seats. The BJP (and the NDA) heavily relied on the charisma and leadership of Prime Minister Modi, who was central to their campaign. The 370+ slogan for the BJP and the 400+ target for the NDA were attempts to build a perception of invincibility. The number 370 also evoked memories of one of their first major actions after the 2019 elections—the scrapping of Article 370. Going beyond 400 was clearly aimed at setting a record, surpassing the 1984 performance of the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress.
Within the INDIA coalition, the Congress was a key player but not the dominant force. After setbacks in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, the party found itself on the back foot, with few bargaining chips in discussions with its allies. The coalition itself experienced several reversals, with the JD(U) moving to the NDA and the Trinamool Congress playing a game of selective engagement and disengagement. There was very little joint campaign effort or common strategy; opposing the BJP was the only glue that held them together. They failed to reach an understanding in key states like West Bengal and Punjab, where they contested against each other.
The Discerning Indian Voter
The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections served as further proof of the Indian voter’s innate wisdom and sagacity. After a decade, we were back to a situation where no party achieved a clear majority on its own. The INDIA coalition saw an increase in its numbers, and once again, after a decade, we had an official opposition party in the form of Congress, with its leader being appointed as the Leader of the Opposition. The BJP’s decline from 303 to 240 seats was largely due to losses in five states—Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra. Uttar Pradesh alone accounted for a loss of 29 seats, which made the difference between the majority mark and the final seat count. However, a further decline below 240 was prevented by strong performances in Odisha, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
The 2024 Lok Sabha verdict is often viewed as a “diversity dividend” offered by the voter. Within a region, the results on different states were distinctly different. The five states of South India, each gave a different verdict. This underscores the fact that states have become the centre of Indian politics.
State Battles
What happened in the Lok Sabha polls was carried forward into the Assembly elections. The Congress’s overconfidence cost them a victory that seemed clearly within their grasp in Haryana. An overemphasis on consolidating the Jat vote backfired, leading to a countervailing non-Jat consolidation in favour of the BJP on one hand, and a limited Jat coalition in favour of Congress on the other. Furthermore, the Congress had to pay the price for internal infighting, while the BJP benefitted from a quiet, ground-level campaign.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference, in alliance with Congress, won the elections. However, there was a clear divide between the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. The BJP performed well in Jammu, while the Congress struggled to assert its presence there. The National Conference, on the other hand, fared better in the Kashmir Valley. Once the new National Conference government was formed, the ruling party attempted to reach out to the Centre to advance the demand for statehood for Jammu and Kashmir. There also seems to be an unease (or unease?) in the relationship between the National Conference and Congress, with the latter choosing not to join the government.
Curtain Down With Maharashtra And Jharkhand
The year ended with the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. In Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti swept to power, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi was decisively defeated. All three partners of the Aghadi—the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP—performed poorly, paving the way for a landslide majority for the BJP-led alliance. In Jharkhand, the battle was primarily between the support bases in the tribal and non-tribal belts. The INDIA coalition did well by consolidating its presence in the tribal areas and expanding its reach in the non-tribal areas. The JMM alliance with Congress, RJD, and Communist parties contributed to this success. The BJP maintained a stronghold in non-tribal areas but failed to significantly dent the JMM’s support in tribal areas. Additionally, the welfare schemes of the JMM-led government worked in their favour.
All in all, it was a year marked by many unexpected shifts and unanticipated turns. Each electoral outcome was shaped by a unique set of contextual factors, including critical social, economic, and political specificities. The multiverse of Indian democracy was truly on display in the year we are soon bidding farewell to.
(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
