Now that the 2024 college football regular season has come to an end and conference championship weekend has arrived, it’s important to point out a lesson we’ve all learned this year:
The unexpected turnaround will be expected in the future.
Indiana won 11 games this season after winning just nine in the previous three years. Arizona State won 10 games after going 3-9 last season. Colorado finished 9-3 after going 4-8 in 2023.
We have learned that any team can be beaten — except Oregon. The Ducks are the only team in the entire country with a chance to become the sixth team in the CFP era to run the table, and the second team west of the Mississippi River.
We learned that joining a new conference won’t prevent you from playing in the conference title game. SMU, Oregon and Texas all made their respective conference title games in Year 1 as new members, and each has a clear path to winning the national title. This isn’t parity. It’s volatility, and it’s the new normal.
Welcome to the new world where the 12-team CFP gets inked for the first time on Sunday.
With that said, here are my updated CFP projections:
1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 12-0
2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 11-1
3. SMU
Conference: ACC
Record: 11-1
4. Arizona State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 10-2
5. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
Record: 11-1
6. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 11-1
7. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 11-1
8. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 10-2
9. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-2
10. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 10-2
11. Alabama
Conference: SEC
Record: 9-3
12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 11-1
QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS
1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Georgia vs. 9. Ohio State)
2. Texas: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Indiana vs. 10. Tennessee)
3. SMU: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Penn State vs. 11. Alabama)
4. Arizona State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Notre Dame vs. 12. Boise State)
FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS
5. Notre Dame vs. 12. Boise State
Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos would head to South Bend in the first-ever home playoff game in FBS history. Jeanty is in the midst of one of the best seasons by a running back ever, chasing Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record. Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times for 2,288 yards in 2024. Sanders carried the ball 344 times for 2,628 yards in 1988. He won the Heisman. Derrick Henry carried the ball 395 times for 2,219 yards in 2015. He won the Heisman.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times for 2,288 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. (Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images)
6. Penn State vs. 11. Alabama
The last time Alabama played a Big Ten team, it put up 42 against Wisconsin and allowed just 10 points. While this Penn State team is a better opponent, Alabama has beaten a top-five team this year and the Nittany Lions have done that just once in their last 13 opportunities. They will have another chance to add to that total this weekend against undefeated Oregon.
Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Crimson Tide finished 9-3 in the regular season, including a 5-3 mark in the SEC. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
7. Indiana vs. 10. Tennessee
The Hoosiers are in the midst of the best season in school history with 11 wins and nine by double digits. The Vols would arrive in Bloomington with the best tailback in the SEC in Dylan Sampson, who has rushed for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns this season.
Indiana has 11 wins this season, which marks the most in program history in a single season. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
8. Georgia vs. 9. Ohio State
A rematch of the 2022 Peach Bowl, which came down to a missed field goal that allowed Georgia to punch its ticket to the national title game and collect its second national championship in as many years.
Georgia features a front seven that could cause OSU the same problems Michigan’s did. But the Buckeyes are the most talented team in the country at hideout, with freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith looking to lead them to their first national title since 2014.
Ryan Day is the first Ohio State coach to lose four straight games to Michigan since John Cooper from 1988-91. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.
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