The analysts said that a high base will weigh on November wholesales with earlier timing of the festive season also impacting volume for the month. However, it must be noted that VAHAN retail registration data remains strong for two-wheelers.
For the two-wheelers segment, the analysts pointed out that surveys indicate slowing demand trends. Positive rural sentiment is supporting overall growth for the sector. On the retail side, VAHAN registration data indicate a growth of 19% year-on-year.
Among two-wheeler makers, Bajaj Auto wholesales likely to increase 2% annually in November while it is likely to fall 14% month-on-month to 4.11 lakh units, the analysts polled by CNBC-TV18 suggested.
Hero Moto sales at 4.78 lakh units are expected to be down 3% YoY and 30% compared to October 2024.
TVS Motor Company shall see the highest growth on a year-on-year basis at 6%, however, the fall is expected to be 21% on a month-on-month basis at 3.87 lakh units.
Royal Enfield’s sales shall go up 2% YoY to 82,000 units, which implies a decline of 26% on a month-on-month basis.
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Analysts were of the view that weak demand conditions continue for cars or the passenger vehicles segment. They noted that high discounts persisted in November as well even after the high festive season sales and inventory reduction.
As per registration data, PV industry sales will likely decline 14% YoY in November. This will be impacted by the higher base of Diwali in November 2023, they said.
India’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki is estimated to witness an uptick of 8% year-on-year to 1.77 lakh units, though it means a decline of 14% on a MoM basis.
Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) Auto’s sales are likely to rise 12% YoY to 79,000 units, a fall of 7% when compared with wholesales in October 2024.
Hyundai sales shall be down 1% YoY and 7% MoM at 65,000 units while Tata Motors’ sales are expected to be flat compared to November 2023 and down 10% MoM at 74,200 units.
Ashok Leyland’s sales are expected to go up 3% YoY and fall 5% MoM to 14,500 units in November, analysts have suggested.
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The wholesales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) will be supported by a low base, and a gradual recovery is seen as an expected increase in government spending, analysts said. They added that pricing discipline and low base should further underpin growth prospects.
Tractors’ demand, on the other hand, is likely to have been supported this month on the back of good rainfall, good reservoir levels, crop prices and improved rural sentiment.
M&M Tractor sales are expected to go up 5% YoY while it could witness a decline of 49% to 33,600 units in November when compared to the previous month.
