Historically, there is no clear trend as to how the December series has panned out for the Nifty. Over the last four years, the index has seen two positive and two negative series.
| December Series In | Nifty Movement Points | Change |
| 2020 | 995 | 7.7% |
| 2021 | -332 | -1.9% |
| 2022 | -293 | -1.6% |
| 2023 | 1,646 | 8.2% |
The Nifty had declined 2,000 points in the October series, which had followed a 1,064 point surge in September and a 746 point gain in October.
Rollovers at the end of the November series were on the higher side, at 79.3%, compared to a three-month average of 70%.
| Nifty Series | Rollovers |
| December | 79% |
| November | 68% |
| October | 65% |
| September | 77.5% |
At the start of the December series, the Open Interest for the Nifty stood at 1.18 crore shares, higher than that at the start of the November series at 1.06 crore shares.
| Nifty Series | Open Interest (Shares) |
| December | 1.18 Crore |
| November | 1.06 Crore |
| October | 1.14 Crore |
| September | 1.32 Crore |
The long position ratio for foreign institutions at the start of the December series stood at 33% net long, compared to 22% in November, but well below the 80% figure seen in October.
| Nifty Series | FII Long Exposure |
| December | 33% |
| November | 22% |
| October | 80% |
| September | 70% |
Here are some of the key stocks you need to watch at the start of the December series:
- 45 new stocks including Avenue Supermarts, BSE, Zomato, CDSL get added to the F&O segment
- Focus will also be on the RBI policy outcome on December 6. More than the rate action, commentary on future actions and GDP, inflation forecasts would be the key factors to watch
- The market will always have one eye on geopolitics and global news
- One needs to keep in mind that global liquidity will remain low during this month as most foreign institutions embark on holidays towards the end of the year.
- and lastly, will there be a much awaited and needed Santa-Claus rally, which usually takes place in the month of December? That will also be something that will be monitored.
(Edited by : Hormaz Fatakia)
