The 120th edition of The Game is here, as No. 2 Ohio State gets set to host rival Michigan at Noon ET Saturday on FOX (watch on FOX and the FOX Sports App).
While this year’s game might not be another top-five showdown, it does feature plenty of intriguing storylines, none bigger than Ryan Day attempting to snap a three-game losing streak to the Wolverines. Day is 43-4 against all other teams since 2001, but hasn’t been able to crack the Buckeyes’ biggest rival.
Not only would an Ohio State win snap that losing streak against the Wolverines, but it would also secure the Buckeyes a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against Big Ten newcomer Oregon. Ohio State could also clinch a spot in the conference title game if Penn State and Indiana both lost this weekend.
For the Wolverines, a win on Saturday would add to the program’s impressive streak over their bitter rival, and would also position the Wolverines for a better bowl game in Sherrone Moore’s first year at the helm. Moore coached the Wolverines to a win in last year’s matchup after Jim Harbaugh was suspended as punishment for Michigan’s scouting and sign-stealing scandal. Moore now has the chance to become just the fifth coach in program history to start 2-0 against Ohio State.
FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman and RJ Young are here to answer the biggest questions heading into this highly-anticipated Big Ten showdown.
What is the key for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes to get over the Michigan hump?
Laken Litman: As soon as quarterback Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State back in January, he understood the significance of beating Michigan. He quickly started referring to the Wolverines as the “Team Up North” and realized the pressure and significance of winning The Game.
This is the game that key veterans who could have left for the NFL in the spring came back for – to beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and win a national championship. Ohio State is primed to reach those goals, especially after an impressive November that included beating two top-five opponents (Penn State and Indiana). Howard is the most accurate passer in the country and has talent at every skill position. The offensive line is so deep that it’s been able to overcome two season-ending injuries without skipping a beat. Ryan Day has a championship-level defense, one that should not struggle vs. Michigan’s limited offense.
Now they just have to execute and beat their greatest rival.
RJ Young: Play and coach to your talent. In this edition of The Game, the Wolverines are once again overmatched by Ohio State’s roster. There are only three positions where Michigan should feel stronger: defensive tackle, cornerback and linebacker. Apart from those, Ohio State is the better team. And at some spots, it’s simply not close — like wide receiver, quarterback, running back and safety.
Act like it’s been 10 years since you, Ohio State, lost to an unranked opponent. Because it has been. OSU has won 54 in a row against unranked foes with its last loss coming against Virginia Tech on Sept. 6, 2014. And it’s been longer than that since the Buckeyes lost multiple games in Big Ten play in the same season — 2011.
Hold onto the ball. The team that has won the turnover battle has won this game eight of the last nine times it’s been played.
There is no margin for error. The Buckeyes have gone 43-4 against all other opponents since 2021. They’re 0-3 against the Team Up North.
Michael Cohen: Given the limitations that this year’s Michigan team has at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, linebacker and in the secondary, where the status of No. 1 cornerback Will Johnson (toe) remains unclear, the only area where the Wolverines seem to match up favorably with a highly talented Ohio State team is along the defensive line. Michigan’s defensive tackle tandem of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant is arguably the best in college football and has combined for 54 quarterback pressures, 6.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss this season. While the edge rusher trio of Josaiah Stewart, Derrick Moore and TJ Guy has chipped in with 80 quarterback pressures, 16 sacks and 23 tackles for loss.
All of which is to say that the Buckeyes’ cleanest path toward victory is neutralizing Michigan’s defensive front to protect quarterback Will Howard (nation-best 74% completion rate) and clear holes for tailbacks Quinshon Judkins (759 yards, 8 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (730 yards, 6 TDs). It’s a task that’s easier said than done considering the two season-ending injuries Ohio State has absorbed along its offensive line to left tackle Josh Simmons (knee) and center Seth McLaughlin (achilles). The former has been replaced by left guard Donovan Jackson, who has allowed eight quarterback pressures in four games since kicking outside, and the latter has been replaced by Carson Hinzmann, last year’s starter at center. The newcomer at guard is Austin Siereveld, a part-time starter earlier this season.
How well Ohio State’s offensive line handles the most talented defensive front it’s faced all year will go a long way toward determining how close this weekend’s game really is.
Conversely, what’s the formula for Michigan to pull off an upset in this game?
RJ: The Wolverines will need the kind of performance Donovan Edwards has shown himself capable of in each of the last two meetings between these two. He’s got a career stat line of 255 rushing yards (7.7 yards per carry) on 33 rushes with two touchdowns against the Buckeyes, but has yet to find that form this season.
Sherrone Moore needs this win, too. In his Year 1, at 6-5, he could end this season with twice as many losses in 2024 as the Wolverines had total from 2021-2023 (40-3). He either performs a feat not even Bo Schembechler or his mentor, Jim Harbaugh, did with a win, joining Lloyd Carr, Gary Moeller, Fritz Crisler and Fielding Yost as the only Michigan coaches in history to begin their career 2-0 against Ohio State. Or, he joins Rich Rodriguez and Bump Elliott as posting one of the three worst winning percentages by a first-year head coach at Michigan in the last 100 years.
Michael: For Michigan to win a fourth consecutive game against Ohio State, the Wolverines will need to put forth their finest rushing performance of the season. The lack of an established option at quarterback following the departure of J.J. McCarthy to the NFL always meant that the 2024 team was likely to shape its identity around running the football, just as Michigan had done during its three-year renaissance under former coach Jim Harbaugh. The return of former five-star tailback Donovan Edwards and an offensive line that had maturity, if not experience, were expected to carry the Wolverines as first-year head coach Sherrone Moore experimented with Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle at quarterback.
But Michigan’s rushing offense has taken significant steps back this season without Moore serving as offensive coordinator and with ex-tight ends coach Grant Newsome now overseeing the offensive line. Prior to Saturday’s offensive explosion against Northwestern, the Wolverines hadn’t exceeded 174 rushing yards in a game since rumbling for 290 yards against USC on Sept. 21. Edwards, the enigmatic senior with a history of big performances against the Buckeyes, still hasn’t topped 100 yards in a game this season. And the distribution of playing time between him and fellow tailback Kalel Mullings, who has been far and away the more consistent runner and averages a team-high 5.4 yards per carry, remains quite puzzling.
All of the pieces must come together this weekend against an Ohio State run defense that is limiting opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry, third-best in the country behind only Ole Miss (2.4) and Indiana (2.6).
Laken: Michigan’s running game, ranked 70th in the country, would have to dominate an Ohio State front that is holding opponents to 90 rushing yards per game (third-best nationally). They’d have to win the turnover battle and also make explosive plays, which seems like a long shot considering the Wolverines are ranked near the bottom of all FBS teams in pass plays that go beyond 10, 20 and 30 yards or more.
Additionally, Michigan could be without its biggest stars. Cornerback Will Johnson has missed five games with a turf toe injury, while tight end Colston Loveland left last week’s game vs. Northwestern with an undisclosed injury. Not having either of those players will make beating Ohio State even more challenging.
Will Michigan be able to contain Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka?
Michael: The biggest dropoff between Michigan’s championship-winning defense a season ago under former coordinator Jesse Minter and its 2024 defense under new coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale is the unit’s significant regression against the pass. The Wolverines had the second-best passing defense in the nation last year (157 yards per game) as Minter relied on heavy doses of zone coverage that allowed his secondary to play with its eyes facing the quarterback, a strategy that helped breed confidence among the players. The cornerback duo of Will Johnson and Josh Wallace, an experienced UMass transfer, was excellent. The nickelback, Mike Sainristil, was arguably the best in the country at his position and an eventual second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The safety grouping of Rod Moore, Keon Sabb and Makari Paige was well above average — especially Moore, who handled most of the communication responsibilities.
Personnel-wise, things have looked far different for Michigan this season, and the on-field results have suffered because of it. The toe injury for Johnson, a first-team All-America selection in 2023, has sidelined him since the Week 8 loss to Illinois. Wallace’s exhaustion of his eligibility forced the Wolverines to dip into the portal for another experienced corner, but this year’s addition — Aamir Hall from Albany — never surpassed struggling sophomore Jyaire Hill to claim the starting job. And the torn ACL suffered by Moore during spring practice left Martindale without a reliable leader at safety, with Paige struggling mightily to fill the void. The loss of co-defensive coordinator/secondary coach Steve Clinkscale, who followed Jim Harbaugh and Minter to the NFL, is another important factor.
All told, Michigan’s pass defense has sunk to 72nd in the nation at 222.3 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup with the most talented wide receiver group in the country. Especially if Johnson is unable to play.
Laken: That is going to be difficult if Will Johnson is not available. Even if he were playing, not many teams have had luck containing Smith and Egbuka all year. Against Oregon, the best defense the Buckeyes have faced, Smith and Egbuka still got their touches and made plays, combining for 19 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns in the one-point loss.
On the season, they’re considered to be the most lethal receiver duo in the country and have combined for 1,591 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns.
RJ: Probably not. Egbuka and Smith are as legitimately great a duo as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave; Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And as problematic as that duo is, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss are just as dangerous.
Do the Buckeyes deserve to be considered the national title front-runner right now?
Laken: They deserve to be one of the national title front-runners right now, but not the lone favorite. Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame and Georgia are all worthy contenders at the moment. If Ohio State beats Michigan and then gets revenge on the top-ranked Ducks to win the Big Ten championship, then that statement might be more of a fair one.
RJ: No. They lost to the national title front-runner last month. Oregon maintains that spot for now.
Michael: In a strange way, Ohio State’s one-point road loss to Oregon in mid-November has become one of the biggest reasons why the Buckeyes probably are the national title front-runners at this point in the season. The Ducks exposed some of the schematic flaws in Ohio State’s defense while racking up 496 total yards, including 341 through the air, and all but extinguishing the threat from edge rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, a pair of former five-star recruits. Within days, head coach Ryan Day told reporters that the result prompted him and his coaching staff to “reengineer” the defense for the back half of the season. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles spoke rather openly about the degree of soul-searching that goes on following such a backbreaking outcome.
Since then, Ohio State’s defense has leaned far more heavily into creative pass rushing than at any point since Knowles arrived from Oklahoma State ahead of the 2022 season. The percentage of traditional four-man rushes has been reduced in favor of stunts, twists and blitzes that demolished Indiana’s offensive line in a top-five matchup last week. Tuimoloau has 10 quarterback pressures in his last three games. Sawyer has 11 quarterback pressures in his last two games. And inside linebacker Cody Simon, who has developed into a prolific blitzer, had 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble against the Hoosiers last weekend. The Buckeyes now lead the country in both total defense (241.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (10.7 points per game) ahead of the showdown with Michigan on Saturday.
And that is why Ohio State should be considered the team to beat in college football.
Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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