Q3 2024 second estimate, jobless claims, and inflation data updates

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the second estimate of Q3 2024 GDP growth today at 7:00 PM IST. This revised estimate follows the advance GDP data reported last month, which indicated the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. This growth was primarily driven by the strongest consumer spending in 1.5 years and a slowdown in inflation.

The initial figure, while robust, came slightly below the 3.0% growth forecasted by economists, reflecting continued economic resilience despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes totalling 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023.

In addition to the GDP revision, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, a key indicator of labour market health. Markets are also watching the Core PCE Price Index, an inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, for signals about future interest rate decisions.

Investors are factoring in a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed confidence in easing inflation and a strong labour market, which could allow for gradual rate adjustments.

Investors and policymakers are closely monitoring these data releases against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the recent presidential election.