When a big favorite makes a big mess in the early window of Sunday games, good outcomes the rest of the day often aren’t enough to save the public betting masses.
Such was the case with NFL Week 12 odds. The Washington Commanders were 10.5-point home favorites against a reeling Dallas Cowboys outfit. But the Commanders lost outright 34-26.
Add to that, the Houston Texans — an 8-point home favorite — losing to the Tennessee Titans 32-27, and a good day for bookmakers was almost unavoidable.
“Dallas and Tennessee winning outright saved us from what could have been a really ugly early window,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
How ‘Bout Them Cowboys?
Dallas entered Sunday on a five-game losing streak, failing to cover the point spread in all five games. The Cowboys had no Dak Prescott, who’s season ended in Week 9. They were double-digit road underdogs.
This was supposed to be a gimme for Washington, and perhaps a gimme for bettors.
Instead, it was a wild contest in which Dallas led just 10-9 after three quarters. The two teams then combined for 42 fourth-quarter points, including eye-popping plays from both teams:
- KaVontae Turpin’s 99-yard kickoff return touchdown to put Dallas up 27-17.
- Jayden Daniels connecting with Terry McLaurin for an 86-yard TD that pulled Washington within one with 21 seconds left. But the Commanders missed the extra point.
- Juanyeh Thomas returning the ensuing onside kick 43 yards for Dallas to make it 34-26.
Crazy stuff all.
That upset win for Dallas blew up countless parlays and, more so, moneyline parlays from the recreational bettors.
Add in the Tennessee upset, and the Kansas City Chiefs — 11-point road favorites — needing a final-second field goal to beat Carolina 30-27, and the public wasn’t going to fully recover Sunday.
“All those things helped. With about 10 minutes to go in each of those games, it was looking dicey for us,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said. “But Dallas winning, the Panthers covering and the Texans getting beat made it a good early slate for us.”
Cowboys vs. Commanders: Greg Olsen, Dave Helman, and Joe Davis break down wild finish
Give-And-Take
That’s not to say the public didn’t have a couple bright spots. One of those, of course, was the freight train that is the Detroit Lions. Since the middle of the 2022 season, Detroit is a ridiculous 32-9 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), including 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS this season.
On Sunday, the Lions shut down Indianapolis 24-6, easily covering as 7-point road favorites. At BetMGM, Detroit took more point-spread bets and more point-spread dollars than any other team in NFL Week 12 odds.
“The Lions and the Bucs were bad for us,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.
Tampa Bay was a popular public play, thanks to all the turmoil surrounding the New York Giants, who last week benched QB Daniel Jones, then granted his request to be released. The Buccaneers were 6-point road favorites and breezed to a 30-7 victory.
And with the San Francisco 49ers banged up — no Brock Purdy, no Nick Bosa — bettors piled on the Green Bay Packers, who were 6-point home favorites. Green Bay rumbled to a 38-10 win.
“The Niners game was terrible,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, echoing the sentiments of bookmakers across the country.
More terrible for Andrews, though, was Minnesota’s 30-27 overtime win at Chicago.
“That game killed us. We closed at Vikings -3, and we had a ton of business. They were laying 3 with the Vikings or taking 3.5 with the Bears,” Andrews said.
So, with a 3-point Vikings win, all the Minnesota -3 bettors got a refund, while all the Bears +3.5 bettors got paid.
“That game ruined our early window,” Andrews said. “We did decent, but we’d have had a huge early window if the Vikings game came up anything but Vikings by exactly 3.”
Bettors also did well with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night. BetMGM’s Davis said the book needed the Los Angeles Rams to win outright as 3-point home underdogs.
But Saquon Barkley had other ideas, rushing for 255 yards — including TD runs of 70 and 72 yards — while leading the Eagles to a 37-20 victory.
Saquon Barkley makes history in Eagles’ victory over Rams
On Campus
Saturday’s SEC chaos surely helped make up for that Sunday Vikings-Bears outcome at South Point. The key results in college football Week 13 odds:
- Alabama, a 14-point favorite, got blown out at Oklahoma 24-3.
- Ole Miss, a 13.5-point favorite at Florida, lost 24-17.
- Texas A&M, a 2.5-point favorite, lost to Auburn 43-41 in quadruple overtime.
“That was great. ‘Bama losing, Mississippi losing, A&M losing. And then Georgia didn’t cover and Arkansas didn’t cover. We had a lot of Arkansas money,” Andrews said. “And Texas didn’t cover. Saturday was a really good day.”
Georgia was a massive 42.5-point favorite vs. UMass and coasted to a 59-21 win but didn’t cover. Arkansas beat Louisiana Tech 35-14 but failed to cover the 23.5-point spread. Texas topped Kentucky 31-14, short of covering as an 18.5-point favorite.
Indiana was a public underdog at Ohio State on Saturday, so that fell in Andrews’ favor, too. The Buckeyes rolled to a 38-15 victory as 10.5-point favorites.
“That was a really good result. Public and sharp money was on Indiana,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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