
Political analyst Dr. Piyush Joshi expects a “decent majority” for AAP despite anti-incumbency, while analyst and lawyer Desh Ratan Nigam believes BJP holds the edge, citing governance concerns and the party’s 27-year wait for power. Senior journalist Sanjeev Srivastava sees Congress as a potential kingmaker, with its performance likely to determine the final outcome. The results are expected to have broader national implications, shaping future electoral strategies.
Dr. Joshi, underscored the challenges faced by all political parties. “No fight in the current scenario is easy at all. Any political party thinking the election will be easy is frankly mistaken,” he said.
Joshi emphasised the seriousness with which AAP approached the election, especially given their track record of over a decade in Delhi. However, he acknowledged that there were issues of anti-incumbency against some AAP MLAs, which led to the last-minute change of candidates. Despite this, Joshi remained confident in AAP’s chances of securing a “decent majority” and forming the next government.
“There was a little bit of anti-incumbency against the MLAs. There is no doubt about that, which led to the changing of tickets just two months before the elections. And I think that is a cause of concern for the Aam Aadmi Party,” Joshi added. He suggested that AAP should focus on strengthening their bond with voters and ensure better management of voter lists in the future.
On the other hand, Desh Ratan Nigam, expressed concerns about AAP’s governance, citing issues with the city’s transport, roads, flooding, and education. “Delhi cannot be run like this,” Nigam said.
He believes that the BJP has an edge. “If they increase their vote percentage by at least 6%, BJP will form a government,” he said, stressing that Delhi’s national importance makes it crucial for the BJP to establish its presence. Nigam also pointed out that the BJP needs to project a leader who can take the party forward in the long run. “BJP has been out of power for 27 years in Delhi, and it’s time for them to regain control,” he concluded.
He went on to question Kejriwal’s ongoing confrontation with the central government, saying, “Why not have a party which is the same as that of the center so there will be smooth functioning?” He also emphasised that BJP must “focus on its core vote bank and ensure they come out and vote.”
Nigam further explained that issues such as poor road conditions, water supply problems, and the unfulfilled promises of cleaning the Yamuna River were likely to be scrutinised by voters. “People are very closely scrutinising. And yes, I’m not saying AAP doesn’t have a vote bank, but that also, there are certain elements of doubt,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, Sanjeev Srivastava believes that Congress party’s performance would significantly impact the election outcome. While AAP and BJP focus on their respective campaigns, Srivastava said, “Congress will never win elections on its own, but it may very well decide this time who the winner can be.” He pointed out that Kejriwal’s positioning as the challenger to the BJP and his consistent defiance against the central government has kept him relevant in the race.
When asked about the broader impact of this election on national politics, Joshi highlighted that a victory for Kejriwal could elevate him as a prominent national leader. “If Arvind Kejriwal wins, then definitely he will emerge as a very strong national leader,” Joshi said, emphasising that the Delhi election outcome would send a strong message to the central government.
He responded by defending AAP’s leadership under Arvind Kejriwal, noting that despite shortcomings, the people still trusted Kejriwal’s honest attempts at governance.
Joshi also expressed his view on the ongoing tension between state and central governments. “It is actually the Union government which is at loggerheads with all the opposition governments,” Joshi argued, contending that Kejriwal’s rebellious stance against the BJP could be a strategic move to strengthen his position.