JPMorgan strategist projects 11-12% earnings growth for 2025, shares sectoral and budget outlook

JPMorgan strategist projects 11-12% earnings growth for 2025, shares sectoral and budget outlook

Sanjay Mookim, Strategist and Head of India Equity Research at JPMorgan India, projects earnings growth for Indian equities at 11-12% for calendar year 2025.

Mookim lists real estate, power, and financials as his top picks, citing their valuation appeal and long-term growth potential.

Financials offer a combination of attractive valuations and strong domestic-facing dynamics, unlike IT, which faces external headwinds.

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He maintains an underweight stance on materials and selective consumer stocks.

Discussing Budget 2025 expectations, Mookim tempered hopes for major fiscal stimulus, pointing to revenue constraints and rising subsidies.

“You are looking at a situation where the government will have to be careful about its revenue projections, whereas subsidies on food or LPG are going to exceed estimates after many years.. So, we are getting into an environment where you have to make choices and there are constraints…. I don’t think we are in a situation which calls for a major dilution of the fiscal deficit target,” he noted.

Mookim is also cautious on monetary policy, noting that while a couple of rate cuts are still pencilled in for 2025, the external environment could influence the Reserve Bank of India’s decisions.

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Elevated crude oil prices and potential tariff-related volatility in emerging market currencies could impact the rupee and, in turn, constrain the RBI’s ability to ease rates further.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video.

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