Maharashtra — the state where complication was a given in the assembly election — has left pollsters befuddled, with three out of nine predicting a hung house, four leaning towards the ruling alliance and two hedging their bets. Jharkhand, where most expected a clear outcome, did not offer much clarity, with poll analysts being divided sharply down the middle. Three are of the opinion that the ruling alliance will retain the state, three others equally convinced that the NDA will wrest the state from the INDIA bloc.
The aggregate of nine exit polls, though, indicates an NDA victory in Maharashtra. Data also indicates a close fight in Jharkhand, where the end result could be a split verdict.
Numbers say Maharashtra’s Mahayuti — ruling alliance of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and the BJP — could win 150 seats and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the coalition of Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of Shiv Sena, NCP Sharadchandra Pawar and the Congress, may get 125. The majority mark in the 288-member assembly stands at 145.
In Jharkhand, currently ruled by the alliance of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Congress, the NDA could marginally fall short of the magic figure of 41, ending up with just 39 seats, shows the aggregate of eight exit polls. The INDIA alliance, though, will be close behind with 38 seats.
Exit polls, however, can get it completely wrong as became amply clear in case of Haryana election, the results of which came out last month and turned prediction on its head.
This time, the exit polls that predict an NDA victory include People’s Pulse, Matrize, Chanakya Strategies, and Times Now JVC. The naysayers are Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi Rudra and Electoral Edge. There are also a couple of fence-sitters also who covered all bases with very disparate margins, Poll Diary and P Marq – the former predicting that the ruling alliance may get anything between 122 and 186 seats and the MVA 69 to 121 seats.
Why The Confusion Galore
The political tumult of the last two years – a change of government sandwiched between splits in two parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party – made for a particularly complicated election in Maharashtra this time. Each faction of the two parties competed for the same votebank, making any prediction difficult.
While the results of the April-May Lok Sabha election indicated a clear public sympathy towards Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar — who faced rebellion, split and deprivation of power, party name and symbol — the ruling alliance on the eve of election appeared to have covered much ground with its welfare schemes.
Ground reports have indicated a possible change in the stance of women voters with schemes like “Ladli Behen” that put money in their purses in place of Opposition assurances.
Jharkhand
Of the eight Opinion Polls for Jharkhand, three have predicted a change of guard with NDA victory. Chanakya Strategies have given NDA 45-50 seats and People’s Pulse 44-53 seats. Times Now-JVC also expects an NDA win in Jharkhand with 40-44 seats and 30-40 for the INDIA bloc.
But Axis My India and Electoral Edge seem equally convinced about an INDIA Bloc victory.
Dainik Bhaskar and P Marq have predicted a hung house.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the contest was close, with the JMM winning 30 seats and the BJP securing 25, down from 37 in 2014. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance won a comfortable majority with 47 seats.
This time too, the INDIA bloc hopes to retain power, riding on its welfare schemes like the women-oriented Maiya Samman Yojana and the outrage among tribals over the arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren in a corruption case.
In 2019 too, the tribals had voted overwhelmingly against the NDA. In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP won eight of the state’s 14 seats, down from 11 in 2019.
The NDA is hoping to make a comeback, with the allegations of non-performance and corruption against the Soren government.
