According to Rajiv Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, India’s leadership in renewable energy and its ambitious targets offer a beacon of hope, particularly as uncertainties loom over the climate commitments of other major economies.
India has set an ambitious goal of achieving 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2030, a target that Shah describes as both “achievable” and transformative. With renewable energy costs in India now ranging between ₹2-3 per kilowatt-hour, solar and wind power are already more economical than many fossil fuel alternatives.
However, reaching this goal will require significant investment and innovation, particularly in modernising energy grids to manage the increased share of renewables. “The challenge is less about whether renewables can compete financially with fossil fuels and more about upgrading grids to integrate them effectively,” Shah said. Energy storage solutions and digital grid management systems are key to ensuring that renewable energy can meet industrial and base load requirements.
India’s renewable energy drive isn’t just about reducing carbon emissions; it’s also about transforming lives. Shah highlighted the impact of empowering farmers to become energy entrepreneurs. These initiatives not only double incomes but also uplift local communities. Shah observed that such changes inspire aspirations, with children moving from public to private schools and envisioning brighter futures in urban centers. “No place on earth has gotten this right yet, but India has a legitimate chance to make this energy transition about lives changed, not just gigawatts added,” he noted.
In a global landscape where, American climate leadership appears to be wavering, Shah underscored the critical role of nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa. He highlighted that if these economies fail to shift from a business-as-usual trajectory, they could account for 75% of global carbon emissions in the next two decades.
“The world depends on these countries getting the energy transition right,” Shah said, emphasising the importance of ensuring that the transition creates meaningful economic opportunities. India’s ability to scale renewable energy while improving livelihoods could serve as an exportable model for other developing nations, he said.
Below are the excerpts of the interview.
Q: There is a fair degree of nervousness about the uncertainty that we’re likely to go through come the 20th of January. But realistically speaking, from a climate perspective as well as an energy markets perspective, what could a Trump administration mean? What implications, what impact is it likely to have in light of what we saw happen in the first administration as well as the rhetoric that we’ve seen on the campaign trail?
Shah: Yeah. I think if you look at what happened in the American election, I think something like seven out of the last eight elections in the United States have been change elections. Most American households, if you take out those at the very bottom and certainly those at the very top, have felt negative about their economic prospects over time.
When my parents immigrated to the United States in 1970, it was statistically true that 95% of kids born in the United States would do better economically than their parents. Today, that’s probably closer to 40%. A while back, we dropped under the 50% threshold.
I think the message of this last election is that people need to believe their government will deliver real results for their economic livelihoods and their children’s future. And neither American political party has delivered that for quite a long time. I say that because the Biden administration has made historic investments in greening the American economy.
About $1.6 trillion in the two big bills, one is called the Inflation Reduction Act, and the other is the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, are fundamentally about green energy investing. But if households don’t feel like those dollars are creating more opportunities for their kids, they’re not going to support a climate transition program. I think that’s true anywhere in the world, and I think that’s true for every energy transition we work on across this planet. So, with that said, which is why it’s so important that this alliance is about people and the planet, and that we listen to the mothers we listened to yesterday say, I’m all for this solar project, but only if it creates opportunities for me and my kids. So that’s the first thing I want to say.
The second is the more direct answer to your question. I think it’s going to be bad. To put it mildly, we’re going to pull out of the Paris Agreement. I don’t think any new administration will unwind too much of the existing past legislation in the IRA and the infrastructure bill, but there’s an American farm bill that’s still outstanding where a lot of incentives for sustainability and agriculture can be unwound. And I think in general, American leadership is unlikely to be a prominent source of climate leadership in the near future, and I think that’s probably an understatement.
Q: If we are going to see this vacuum as far as American leadership is concerned, what will that result in specifically as far as financing needs are concerned and the green gap that we foresee is only going to get wider, what happens there?
Shah: In the US we’re making the investments right now to green our economy, and we’re ahead of schedule relative to where we were a few years ago. Europe is in the same category. They’re making significant green investments in the trillions of dollars. And China, of course, is not just making those investments for the domestic economy but has effectively captured a large part of the world’s supply chain for critical minerals and for products like energy storage that are mission-critical to this task globally.
So where will leadership come from? I think leadership has to come from India, Brazil, South Africa. That’s where the action is. We know that if the 70-some countries that are not considered the most developed economies in the world don’t change their trajectory, if the business-as-usual scenarios go forward, in about 20 years, 75% of total global carbon emissions come from just those economies. So, to some extent, the world depends on those few places getting the energy transition right. And those places can only get the energy transition right if it serves everybody and creates meaningful human opportunity.
Q: Let’s talk about India then, because you said that in a couple of weeks from now you’re going to have 30 heads of state meet to take stock of where things stand as far as the energy transition map is concerned and a lot will be in focus on what’s happened here in India and how India could potentially lead the way. What gives you the confidence, what gives you the optimism of what is working in India, what India is doing right, and what could perhaps be an exportable template?
Shah: The first thing that’s working is, India has had a strong policy of leadership on this domestically. So, 500 gigawatts is a very clear and significant goal and whether or not India is going to meet the 500 gigawatts on the current trajectory is open to debate, but it’s an achievable goal if people come together and are very serious about meeting it. Second, now that solar in India and other sources of renewables are at ₹2-3 a kilowatt hour, you are at a price point where you are better than the next best fossil fuel alternative.
The challenge is less about will renewables compete financially with fossil fuels and more about whether can we upgrade grids to operate them in a way where we can use renewables at a high share of total energy and still meet all the industrial and base load requirements, which is going to be fundamentally about energy storage and the technology of the grid system itself. So, I’m hugely optimistic.
I think the thing I’m personally most optimistic about is what I saw yesterday, which is you give a farmer a chance to become an energy entrepreneur, double their incomes and transform their local communities, all of a sudden their kids, as we saw yesterday, are switching from public schools to private schools. Their dreams and aspirations are changing from staying in their community to going to the urban areas and leading more expansive lives economically. That’s what success is going to look like. And I don’t think any place on earth has gotten this right yet, but I think India has a legitimate chance to say as we make this energy transition, it’s not just about the total number of gigawatts, it’s actually about the number of lives changed.
Q: Let’s talk about this achievable target of 500 gigawatts as well. We’re a little over 200 gigawatts cumulatively today. We added about 30 gigawatts in 2024, and the expectation is that that’s the kind of run rate that we’re going to be doing. What will it take to expedite the current trajectory to be able to get to the 500-gigawatt number?
Shah: I think a few things. One is more of the mega projects and more of the pathway to scale on that. I’ve heard it both ways. I’ve heard people say, especially from my team, that’s exactly what you just said, and we’re going to be maybe 200 gigawatts short. I’ve heard others in the industry say, it’ll go from 30 gigawatts to 40 or 50 gigawatts a year, and we might be a year behind, but we’ll get to the target. I don’t know what the answer is. I do know that you have to have much more investment in this space. You don’t get there until you make sure the grids can take on more renewables and a much higher share of renewables. I think that’s going to come down to energy storage, to this digitised grid management information system approach. And ultimately, and this is probably not in the same time horizon, but the adoption of new technologies like nuclear fusion and things like that when they become available.
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