Trade Setup for November 21: Will volatile global cues dampen any Nifty recovery prospects?

Trade Setup for November 21: Will volatile global cues dampen any Nifty recovery prospects?
The Indian equity market witnessed a roller-coaster session as the benchmark index began on a buoyant note, soaring over 300 points intraday. However, in the latter half, the bulls lost momentum, and the market once again came under the tight grip of bears, erasing most of the day’s gains. Eventually, the Nifty50 retreated from its intraday highs to close near the 23,500 zone, still managing a modest 0.28% gain for the day.

On November 19, the Nifty50 broke its seven-day losing streak—the longest in over 20 months. Despite a strong opening and a positive first half, a sharp sell-off in the latter half wiped out the day’s earlier gains, reportedly triggered by news of Ukraine’s strike inside Russia.

Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS missiles into Russia’s Bryansk region. This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 19 signed a revised nuclear doctrine declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. Europe’s main stock index erased earlier gains post the development on Ukraine Russia front on Tuesday.

Thursday’s trading session will also see whether the Nifty 50 bulls are able to defend the 23,500 mark on the downside, particularly on the Nifty expiry day.

On the stock-specific front, PSP Projects Ltd. rallied up to 15%, the most in a single day since January 2022, to ₹734.95. The uptick in the stock price followed repots of Billionaire Gautam Adani’s Adani Infrastructure looking to acquire a majority stake in the construction company. The deal includes an open offer at ₹642.06 per share, and involves purchasing a stake from one of PSP Projects’ founders.

Foreign institutions continued to remain net sellers in the cash market on Tuesday, while domestic institutions were net buyers.

Technically, there have been merely any alterations to the price action on a closing basis, but the sell-off before the mid-week holiday reiterates a cautious stance in markets, according to Osho Krishnan of Angel One.

According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, the Nifty remained volatile throughout the session due to a sudden spike in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, causing the index to fall below its 200-day moving average (DMA) once again.

“On the technical front, the Nifty managed to hold above its recent low, indicating a potential bullish reversal as long as it does not breach the 23,350 level. Conversely, if the index sustains above the 23,500 level, it could move toward the 23,700–23,800 zone,” he said.

Deepak Jasani of HDFC Securities expects Nifty to form a higher low before embarking on a sustainable bounce. 23350-23815 could be the band for the Nifty over the near term, he said.

Religare Broking’s Ajit Mishra said the Nifty’s movement reflects that bears are firmly in control, using every rebound as an opportunity to short.

“For benchmark Nifty 50, despite the rebound, market gave up the gains and eventually closed below the crucial 200-DMA at 23,574, which signals further weakness in the near term, with next immediate support at 23,333 followed by 23,213,” said Gaurav Garg, of Lemonn Markets.

The Nifty Bank index opened on a positive tone, maintained bullish momentum, and concluded the day on a positive note at 50,627 levels.

Technically, the index on a daily scale has formed a doji candle, indicating uncertainty, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. The index has close just above the 50,600 hurdle, holding above 50,600 could lead to further strength in Bank Nifty.

On the downside, 200-Days exponential moving average (DEMA), is placed near 49,920. If index manages to respect 49,900-49,920 levels, then it could witness pullback move towards 51,000-51,500 levels.

These are the stocks to watch ahead of Thursday’s trading session:

UPL | UPL Ltd. has informed the exchanges that it has signed definitive agreements with Alpha Wave Global, under which the latter will invest $350 million to acquire approximately a 12.5% stake in its seeds business, Advanta Enterprises.

Dr Reddy’s | USFDA has issued form 483 with seven observations for API manufacturing facility (CTO-2) in Bollaram, Hyderabad. The USFDA had conducted a GMP inspection of the API facility from November 13 to November 19, 2024.

Tata Power |  Tata Power collaborates with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power Corp to develop 5,000 mw of clean energy projects in Bhutan.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Enginers | Garden Reach had signed a contract for project worth ₹226.2 crore with the West Bengal government.

Aditya Birla Capital | Aditya Birla Capital had invested ₹100 crore in arm Aditya Birla Capital Digital on rights basis.

JSW Steel | JSW Steel has been declared as preferred bidder for Codli Mineral Block-XII, Dharbandora, Goa. The projected Iron Ore resources in Codli Mineral Block-XII is 48.5 mt in addition to 2.7 mt of ore in dumps.

NLC India | NLC India will invest up to ₹3,720 crore for various renewable projects, to acquire stakes of NIRL for transferring of renewable assets to NIRL under asset monetisation plan.

Aegis Logistics |  Aegis Logistics arm Aegis Vopak Terminals has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) for an IPO. Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO shall comprise a fresh issue of up to ₹3,500 crore.

Adani Infra | Adani Infra announced an open offer to acquire additional 26% stake in PSP Projects. The open offer is priced at 642.06 per share.

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