Political tensions escalate in Bihar: Speculations over RJD’s offer to Nitish Kumar and NDA equation

Political tensions escalate in Bihar: Speculations over RJD’s offer to Nitish Kumar and NDA equation

Political tensions have escalated in Bihar over the past few weeks amidst speculation and mixed signals. Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav made headlines by stating that the doors of his party remain open for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

But his son and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav downplayed the offer.

Despite this, the speculation persists, as Lalu has called an RJD executive meeting on January 18.

Meanwhile, Nitish has reaffirmed his commitment to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Speaking in Gopalganj on January 4, he dismissed the possibility of returning to INDIA bloc, saying, “I will not make the previous mistake now.”

A turning point on December 16

The speculation began following Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement during a televised event on December 16, 2024.

When asked about the NDA’s plans for the upcoming Bihar elections and whether Nitish would lead the coalition, Shah emphasised party unity but deferred decisions to future meetings.

His measured response left room for interpretation, leading many to question the solidity of the BJP-JDU alliance.

Nitish’s silence fuels speculation

Nitish’s conspicuous silence following Shah’s remarks added to the political uncertainty. For two days, he refrained from public appearances, citing health issues.

Though unofficial, media sources confirmed his ill-health during the Bihar Connect event. When Nitish resumed his Pragati Yatra, his health seemed to have improved, but his trip to Delhi shortly afterward reignited speculation.

Reports suggested he might meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi or BJP President JP Nadda, but he only visited the family of the late former PM Manmohan Singh.

Lalu’s “open door” remark raises eyebrows

Lalu’s statement about keeping RJD’s doors open for Nitish Kumar stirred further debate. Political observers connected it to Nitish’s past political decisions, including his switch between alliances.

Some linked the comment to the BJP’s internal maneuvers, such as appointing Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar as Bihar’s in-charge and the selection of Arif Mohammad Khan as the state governor.

JDU’s demand for assembly seats

A key point of contention between the JDU and BJP appears to be the seat-sharing formula for the upcoming elections. Sources within JDU suggest the party is keen on contesting 122 seats in the state assembly, leaving 121 for the BJP.

This arrangement would position the JDU as the senior partner, reversing the outcome of the last Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP took the lead. While Nitish accepted a secondary role to retain the chief ministership, insiders say he’s now determined to reclaim the “elder brother” status in Bihar politics.

What lies ahead?

As January 18 approaches, all eyes will be on Lalu’s executive meeting, which could provide more clarity on the RJD’s political strategy. Meanwhile, the BJP and JDU must navigate their alliance carefully to maintain cohesion ahead of the elections. Whether Nitish’s political path will remain aligned with the NDA or take an unexpected turn remains a question of intense debate.

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