The Patriots lost big for winning, and what else we’re learning in Week 18

FOX Sports’ NFL experts provide the biggest takeaways from every Sunday game in Week 18 and what they mean for each team going forward.

Commanders: Dan Quinn didn’t care much about playoff seeding, as the Commanders mailed in this season-ending win over Dallas and QB Jayden Daniels was pulled in the third quarter. It was the smart decision because Daniels has been banged up a few times this season and without him, the Commanders would have no chance of winning their first playoff game in 19 years, no matter who they play. Daniels, of course, has had a spectacular rookie season that will likely see him named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. They still managed to clinch the sixth seed and avoid a first-round trip to Philadelphia, thanks to the Green Bay Packers‘ loss to the Bears. The playoffs still won’t be easy for a team with a rookie QB, but don’t count out a team that has a top-five offense, a top-10 defense and a candidate for NFL Coach of the Year.

Cowboys: The biggest decision of the offseason figures to be the fate of Mike McCarthy, who can become a free agent if he’s not re-signed by Jan. 14. But that’s not the only big decision facing the Cowboys. Micah Parsons is heading into the final year of his contract and is due to make a guaranteed $21.3 million next season, which means the smart move would be to sign him to a long-term contract now. The Cowboys want to do it and he clearly deserves it. He had 2½ more sacks on Sunday and finished with 12 for the year, despite missing four games with injuries. The Cowboys like to wait on these things, but they’d be crazy not to get this deal done sooner than later. A big contract would lower his cap number for 2025 and give the Cowboys potentially another $10-15 million to spend in free agency. It’s a no-brainer move. — Ralph Vacchiano

Jaguars: Owner Shad Khan was not too far off when he said ahead of this season that this was the most talented Jaguars team ever assembled. It’s easy to poke fun at those remarks now, given how Jacksonville’s 2024 season went. But the reality is that the team has a lot of talented players, enough to make the expected new leadership excited about the future. Brian Thomas Jr. is on track to be a superstar. Jacksonville also has two great edge rushers (Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker), two good running backs (Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby), two good cornerbacks (Tyson Campbell, Jarrian Jones) and bookend tackles (Anton Harrison, Walker Little). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, when healthy, has proven he can play well with the right situation around him. The Jags have pieces to work with at all of the most valuable positions.

Colts: We have learned nothing new about Anthony Richardson through two seasons. He’s a young quarterback with Superman-like physical traits and upside, but is still far from being a consistent, every-down passer in the NFL. It doesn’t help that he’s missed 17 of 32 possible games (15 due to injury). Development is the one thing he has needed more than anything else, but he hasn’t been consistently available. That complicates a Colts path to contention in the near future. The former No. 4 overall pick should at least begin 2025 as QB1, but if he doesn’t show growth then, Indy will be back at square one at the quarterback position — a place the franchise has been stuck in for years. — Ben Arthur

Saints: That this depleted Saints team, missing so many key players, put up a fight and gave the Bucs a scare with the NFC South title on the line is little consolation in what still lines up as a disappointing 5-12 season for New Orleans. Spencer Rattler had a solid first half, but the Saints remain unsure what their quarterback is — whether it’s paying Derek Carr $40 million for another season or starting anew with a fresh face. This is a team still in salary-cap trouble as it tries to shed bad contracts that have been reworked again and again. The Saints will have a new coach and potentially a new general manager in what will be a busy offseason of change ahead.

Bucs: Tampa Bay was down 10, down six in the fourth quarter, and the defense stepped up in the second half as it has throughout the past month. Give credit to Baker Mayfield for huge passes and runs to pull off the comeback, but the defense made it possible. It had allowed just six total points in the second half of the past four games, and it held the Saints to just three points in the second half on Sunday to set the offense up for a comeback. The Bucs eked out the win they had to have to clinch the NFC South, and did it without the offense doing much until the fourth quarter. They did it without a takeaway — they’ve struggled to find those all year — and with only two sacks, though Vita Vea’s sack of Spencer Rattler in the fourth quarter was a huge play. — Greg Auman

Bears: At least they broke the losing streak? The Bears were supposed to be good this year. They spent in free agency. They picked atop the draft. They reloaded at crucial positions. And most importantly, they had a QB: Caleb Williams. But everything has been a disappointment in Chicago. Even Williams has not been the QB they had hoped. Now, there’s context, because the Bears clearly stunted his development. And when they realized they were doing that, they fired their head coach, which didn’t exactly help. But since Chicago fired Matt Eberflus, it has been a ticking clock for the season to end, for Williams to get a new coach (perhaps Lions OC Ben Johnson) and for that coach to help him realize his potential. So let’s get that process started. Because I’m rooting for Williams as much as anyone to be a truly elite QB. It wouldn’t hurt if the Bears used all three of their draft picks in the top 40 on offensive linemen. Just saying.

Packers: Around the league, Week 18 games weren’t the most beautiful or digestible product. But Green Bay unfortunately reminded everyone why many teams rested their starters out of an abundance of caution. Quarterback Jordan Love left the game in the second quarter with a right elbow injury. Receiver Christian Watson left the field on a cart after a knee injury. The Packers have struggled against playoff contenders in recent weeks, so it was easy to doubt their playoff chances. And that was with Love and Watson in the starting lineup. Now, the Packers have to worry about the health of their QB and one of their top receivers. It’s a tough blow to the team — and at the worst possible time. — Henry McKenna

Panthers: What an emphatic finish to 2024 for Bryce Young, who’d lost the starting job early on and rallied back to guide Carolina to four wins in its last nine games. Sunday was easily his best yet — three touchdown passes, two touchdown runs and a huge overtime win. He went head-to-head with another top young quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. and never flinched. The job is now Young’s again for 2025, something that would have been difficult to imagine in October. For Dave Canales, a 4-5 finish gives the team a positive trajectory for the offseason, something the franchise hasn’t had in years. — Greg Auman

Falcons: Head coach Raheem Morris’ Falcons completed an embarrassing second-half collapse and fell to the Panthers at home in overtime in the final game of the year to be eliminated from the postseason. Morris is a defensive head coach, yet Atlanta’s defense allowed the Bryce Young-led Panthers to score a season-high 44 points. The Falcons lost six of their last eight games to finish the season 8-9 after a 6-3 start, and their fall off a cliff included benching quarterback Kirk Cousins after signing him to a free-agent contract that included $100 million in guaranteed money. The only saving grace for Morris is that Cousins’ replacement, first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr., played reasonably well in his three starts, finishing with 775 passing yards and three touchdowns. Penix didn’t look overwhelmed by the moment as a starting quarterback in the NFL, which gives Atlanta some hope for 2025. — Eric D. Williams

Bills: Might this game hurt Josh Allen’s MVP case? I get that he didn’t play, because the Bills have won so many games. And Buffalo has won most of its games because of Allen. That’s why he’s so deserving of the MVP. But when you look at the numbers, Lamar Jackson is ahead of Allen in just about every category. Jackson built his statistical lead this week by playing against the Browns. You can put an asterisk on Allen’s numbers and say: But he only played 16 games! But the numbers will be what they are. Jackson will be the obvious leader there. Allen’s film, in my opinion, is more impressive. That’s the divide that’ll likely determine this MVP race.

Patriots: What was the point of this win? New England will not pick first overall, despite starting Sunday in pole position. With a Patriots victory over the Bills, the Titans took the No. 1 spot. The old cliché is that this sort of win builds culture in New England. Wins cure all ills, they say. I say: This win won’t do that. The 4-13 Patriots aren’t walking away from this win with their heads held high. And shortly after the game, New England fired head coach Jerod Mayo after one year on the job. So what did this win accomplish? Nothing. The Patriots clearly wanted to tank. They removed Drake Maye after one series and put in rookie quarterback Joe Milton, their third-stringer, for the remainder of the game. But for a team that has done so many things wrong, it makes sense that they won when they were supposed to lose. — Henry McKenna

Giants: The final game of the season was basically what the past two years have been for New York: a game with very little offense. Against mostly Eagles backups, the Giants managed just 238 yards of offense and meekly fell to 3-14. Now they have a huge decision to make in the coming days about whether Brian Daboll — hired in large part for his offensive mind and track record — is the guy to get the Giants out of this mess next year. But their biggest issue is the quarterback position. They are going to draft third, which might be high enough to get one of the top two QBs in the draft (Shadeur Sanders, Cam Ward). The Giants have to figure out if they’re worth it (assuming one of them falls to 3), or if a veteran (Sam Darnold, Justin Fields) is a better option. They need to rebuild their offensive line too (and again), but if they don’t solve the quarterback position, nothing else is going to matter.

Eagles: There was really nothing to learn about the Eagles from this game, considering they declared 11 of their starters inactive for the game and rested several others. They knew that nothing mattered more than making sure they were as healthy as possible for what they hope will be a long playoff run. There is a bit of a mystery with quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was last seen two weeks ago when he suffered a concussion in Washington. He’s also dealing with a broken finger on his left (non-throwing) hand. All indications have been that he’ll be OK for the first round. If he is, that could be the first of many playoff games for the Eagles over the next month. — Ralph Vacchiano

Texans: Houston looks like a one-and-done team for the playoffs. Not that Sunday’s result had anything to do with that — the Texans cruised to a 23-14 victory over the Titans in the regular season finale, with second- and third-stringers playing most of the game — but it’s what the entirety of this season has shown us about them. Against teams with a winning record, they’re 1-5 entering the playoffs. Their issues on offense, between the line play and execution struggles and C.J. Stroud’s regression, make Houston a tough team to bank on, despite having an elite defense. Of their two possible wild-card round opponents, the Chargers and the Steelers, the latter is the more favorable matchup. But even Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt-led defense should give Houston fits — enough to send it home.

Titans: The Titans have secured the No. 1 overall pick — a result of their loss and the Patriots beating the Bills — putting them in position to take Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. But I’m not entirely convinced that the Titans are going to draft a quarterback. If coach Brian Callahan and general manager Ran Carthon are retained, they could be leaning toward self-preservation. In other words, doing what it takes to win in 2025 — and not necessarily what’s best for the franchise in the long term. That could mean pursuing a veteran quarterback (someone like Sam Darnold or Russell Wilson) and using the No. 1 pick on Colorado‘s Travis Hunter or Penn State’s Abdul Carter or trading back, acquiring the draft capital needed to build up a young core that is underwhelming. — Ben Arthur

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).