Trade Setup for January 6: Is the Nifty bracing for another disappointing earnings season?

Trade Setup for January 6: Is the Nifty bracing for another disappointing earnings season?
The market ended its two-day gaining streak as bears took control, halting the New Year rally on Friday (January 3). After a flat opening, the Nifty traded within a narrow range throughout the session, eventually closing near the day’s low at 24,005. Despite the decline, sentiment remained positive as the index managed to close above the 24,000 mark.

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For the week, the Nifty and Sensex rose 1% each. The Midcap Index outperformed, gaining nearly 2%, while the Nifty Bank ended in the red. As many as 39 out of 50 Nifty stocks ended higher, with ONGC, Maruti, Eicher Motors, and Bajaj Finserv being the top gainers.

On the other hand, Wipro, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories were the top losers. A majority of midcap stocks delivered positive returns, with IREDA, Oil India, and IGL being the top gainers.

When markets resume trading on Monday, several key events are likely to influence market sentiment. The earnings season begins with IT major TCS, a key trigger as any signs of improvement in Q3 numbers could reverse the ongoing trend of FII outflows.

Additionally, a host of economic data like HSBC Composite PMI, HSBC Services PMI, Fiscal Year GDP Growth, and IIP will be closely monitored for further cues.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal expects markets to witness stock or sector specific action on the back of pre-quarterly business updates released by the companies, ahead of their third quarter results.

Carrying the momentum of 2024, the IPO market is set to start on a strong note in 2025 with three mainboard issues lined up this week. Apart from these new IPO openings, the Street will also witness one listing.

On Friday, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers at 4,227.25 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at 820.60 crore.


What do the Nifty50 charts indicate?

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities believes the near-term uptrend remains intact for the Nifty. A decisive move above the Thursday’s high of 24,226 could open renewed buying participation towards 24400-24500 levels. Immediate support is around 23930-23840 levels.

LKP Securities’ Rupak De said the Nifty was unable to break above the 50 EMA on the daily timeframe, resulting in a market correction. However, sentiment remains positive as the index closed above 24,000. The RSI shows a bullish crossover. On the upside, the index may rise towards 24,200–24,220, with a break above 24,220 potentially pushing it to 24,500. Conversely, a decisive move below 24,000 could lead the index towards 23,700.

“During the week, the market not only cleared the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but also comfortably closed above it, which is largely positive. Technically, it has formed a reversal formation on both daily and weekly charts, supporting a further uptrend from the current levels. We are of the view that the short-term texture of the market is bullish; however, before any fresh breakout, we could see range-bound activity,” said Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities.

“For traders now, the 200-day SMA, or the 23,900-23,750 / 78600-78100 level, would be key support zones, while the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, or the 24,150-24,200/79600-79800 levels, could represent crucial resistance areas. If the market rises above 24,200/79800, the chances of reaching 24,400-24,500/80200-80500 would turn bright. Conversely, if it falls below 23,750/78100, sentiment could change. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions,” Athawale said.

“From a technical perspective, the recent price action indicates that bulls are striving to defend the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA). A successful breach of the 100-day DEMA, currently at 24,250, could provide further momentum, targeting the 24,400–24,800 range. Conversely, a decisive break below 23,700 could weaken bullish sentiment, with the next significant support at 23,250, the November 2024 low,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking.

What do the Nifty Bank charts indicate?

The Nifty Bank index fell 617 points to settle at 50,989. For Bank Nifty, the 200-day SMA, or the 50,500-50,600 range, would act as a critical support zone. On the upside, the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, or the 51,800-52,200 range, could be crucial resistance areas for the bulls, according to Athawale of Kotak Securities.

Here are the stocks to watch ahead of Monday’s trading session:

HDFC Bank saw quarter-on-quarter deposit growth outpace loan growth in the three months to December 31. Deposits rose 4.2% to Rs 24.53 lakh crore, slowing from 5.1% rise in July-September quarter. Its low-cost current and savings account deposits rose 1.1%.

Bandhan Bank said its loans and advances grew by 15% year-on-year (YoY) to 133,285 crore as of the quarter ended December 2024, compared to 115,940 crore at the end of the same quarter last fiscal. Quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), loans and advances rose 2% from 130,649 crore as of the quarter ended September 2024.

ICICI Bank gets GST demand and penalty order of ₹100.76 crore.

NTPC Green Energy: Arm Wins 1000 MW in Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited’s (UPPCL’s) Solar PV Power Project Auction.

Tata Elxsi to work with Qualcomm Tech to develop and leverage virtual models of Snapdragon Digital Chassis Solutions For Cloud-native Application Development.

Quess Corp gets income tax refund including interest of ₹124.80 crore for FY24.

HG Infra Engineering gets LoI from Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam for setting up a 250 MW/ 500 MWH standalone battery energy system in Gujarat.

Indian Bank: Total business up 8.3% YoY at ₹12.61 lakh crore in Q3. Total deposits were also up 7.3% YoY at ₹7.02 lakh crore. Gross advances rose 9.6% at ₹5.59 lakh crore.

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