In the realm of film and television awards and honours, does it truly come down to the numbers? The answer is “rarely”. Look at this year’s Golden Globes: Emilia Pérez leads the film nominations with 10, and The Bear dominates the television categories with five. What does that add up to? Neither is likely to walk away a winner.
In fact, Emilia Pérez must contend with much stronger awards-season buzz around The Brutalist, while The Bear has a unique existential dilemma: it delivered an awful season the same year Hacks delivered its series best. And that’s without factoring in the risk that sentiment will win the day and Only Murders in the Building will steal the award from both of them.
Nicole Kidman attends a screening of Babygirl at the 81st Venice International Film Festival.Credit: Dave Benett/WireImage
Historically, the Golden Globe Awards, the much-storied forerunner to the Oscars, have bathed themselves in a lot of flattering pre-Oscar light. It’s mostly smoke and mirrors when you consider they aren’t the strongest predictor of an Oscar win. (That honour belongs to the Producers Guild Awards, held in February.)
But a bunch of scandals and an internal restructure changed the Globes’ voting body from fewer than 100 to more than 330, and the mathematical heft of pulling in film industry leaders and film festival directors from around the world has tilted the Globes’ form guide from conventional with a quirky twist to something hewing a little closer to the Oscars.
Will that push the numbers in anyone’s favour? It’s difficult to say, though there are some very tight categories at the Globes that will test the voting body’s sensibilities. Actress in a motion picture, drama – perhaps the toughest category of the night – has two Globes favourites in its sights: Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl).
The X-factor? Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), an actor who might not have historically held her own against a couple of heavyweights such as Jolie and Kidman but, in The Last Showgirl, delivers one of those actor/character-blurred performances that easily delights the sensibilities of anyone who loves a runner-up-to-winner story.
Guy Pearce, Felicity Jones and Adrien Brody arrive at the premiere of The Brutalist last month.Credit: AP
Australians, too, have made a formidable showing. Kidman for Babygirl (actress in a motion picture, drama), Guy Pearce for The Brutalist (supporting actor in a motion picture, drama), Cate Blanchett for Disclaimer and Naomi Watts for Feud: Capote vs The Swans (both actress in a limited series or anthology series), plus writer/director/producer Adam Elliot and producer Liz Kearney for Memoir of a Snail (animated film).
Perhaps the most complex thing for the audience to unpick on the night will be understanding that Wicked, which is raking in cash at the box office, and has seemingly become the critical and commercial darling of the film biz in the past month, is unlikely to scoop the pool either.
