Folks, we finally made it to the very last week of the 2024 NFL regular season. And it’s been a fun one so far.
As is always the case, the final week features a few games that don’t hold a lot of weight because several teams already know their playoff fates. However, I’ve found one that does have some gravity and another one with a huge spread that I think will be interesting.
Let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 18.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, JAN. 4
Browns @ Ravens (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
Yes, it’s a divisional matchup. And yes, the spread is massive. But goodness gracious is Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggling!?
He has three interceptions and no touchdowns in the last two weeks, starting for Jameis Winston, who was also awful.
DTR attempted 47 passes against Miami, and only one of those was attempted more than 20 yards down the field. He’s limited, and defenses know it.
This has to be Ravens or pass.
A Baltimore win here locks up the division; a loss opens the door for Pittsburgh to steal it with a win over the Bengals.
The Ravens defense has been shredded at times earlier this season (401 yards, 6.1 YPP in the earlier meeting with Cleveland). But it has adjusted to having Kyle Hamilton in his more natural spot on the back end of the defense.
Expect payback to be swift and aggressive. This might look a lot like last week’s Ravens game against the Texans that ended with Baltimore winning 31-2.
You won’t win long-term backing double-digit favorites, but I’m OK doing it in this spot.
PICK: Ravens (-18) to win by more than 18 points
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Bengals @ Steelers (8 p.m., ESPN)
It’s a tricky game to handicap because we know the Bengals’ motivation. They need to win to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs. But what about Pittsburgh?
The reeling Steelers, who have lost three in a row and four of six, are going to the playoffs. But if the Ravens win, the best Pittsburgh can do is the fifth seed. However, if Pittsburgh loses and the Chargers win, the Steelers would drop to sixth.
Surely Mike Tomlin would rather face the wobbly Texans than the Ravens for a third round, right?
The Bengals offense is cooking with Joe Burrow, but the injury to RB Chase Brown is concerning because he’s such a dual threat on the ground and as a pass catcher. But the defense remains horrendous, unable to get stops even when facing lower-tier QBs like Cooper Rush, Will Levis and even Bo Nix.
This could be one of those “get right” spots for the Steelers after losses to elite teams in Philly, Baltimore and Kansas City.
Early money has come in on Pittsburgh and Tomlin as a home underdog. If you worry about the Bengals defense — and you should — then consider wagering Over 48.5 total because we know Cincy can’t get stops, and Burrow & Co. are going to score.
PICK: Over 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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