1 / 6Assembly election in Bihar is likely in late 2025, while Delhi may go to polls as early as February. The Aam Aadmi Party is eyeing a fourth term in the national capital, one of the wealthiest provinces, against the challenge by a bigger rival in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which hasn’t ruled the Delhi assembly since 1998. The BJP and its coalition partner Janata Dal (United), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, would like to retain power in Bihar, one of the poorest states in the country. In the era of competitive populism, electoral compulsions may lead to policies that may have a bearing on the fisc as well as the market sentiment.
2 / 6A series of allegations against India’s richest man, Gautam Adani, which started in early 2023, has yet to die out fully. While the conglomerate is constantly defended against the charges of bribery and stock manipulation, to name a few, the controversies assume a political significance due to the billionaire’s image as a close ally of the ruling dispensation under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The opposition parties stalled the latest Winter session of the Parliament, demanding a discussion on the charges against the Adani Group, and it may not be a surprise if Modi’s rivals wield the same weapon again in 2025. Depending on the source and severity of the charges, the Adani Group stocks may react, too.
3 / 6The election for India’s richest civic body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), is expected in 2025. This would be the first poll for the municipal corporation in India’s financial capital since 2017. Following the state elections, the Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, would feel confident, but the stakes are too high for complacency. The BJP’s coalition partner, Shiv Sena (UBT), is already in election mode in a bid to retain the BMC. Whether there will be a separate quota for ‘other backward classes’ in civic bodies is one of the critical questions to be answered by the Supreme Court before the polls. The verdict could lead to unrest in some sections of society.
4 / 675 years of Constitution: In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, The Opposition led by Congress gained from accusing the BJP of wanting to change the fundamental nature of India’s constitution. While the BJP refuted the charge, some significant policy promises, like the Uniform Civil Code, would need constitutional changes. Modi doesn’t have the brute majority required to push through a policy change that would affect the country’s religious minorities, and his coalition partner, Nitish Kumar, has taken an ambiguous position on the issue by seeking wider consultations. The UCC may have to wait till the Bihar polls unless Prime Minister Modi decides that the 75th anniversary of the Indian constitution is the appropriate moment to bring in the landmark change that would make personal laws identical for all communities in the country.
5 / 6Bill on simultaneous polls: The One Nation, One Election policy proposes a unified electoral process where all elections, including Lok Sabha and State Assemblies, are held simultaneously. And achieving an agreement amongst political parties remains a significant hurdle in implementing this major move. The Bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha in the Winter Session. The bill have been referred to a joint committee of the two Houses for in depth examination and wider consultations.
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