| Company | Value | Change | %Change |
|---|
Until 12:30 on Monday afternoon, the Nifty appeared to be staging a recovery, with the banking heavyweights contributing to the index moving past 23,900. But as soon as the index reached that congestion zone of 23,900 – 24,000, a similar script followed. The index not only fell from the highs of the day, but fell sharply at that.
23,900, 23,800, 23,700, none of the levels were spared as the same banking heavyweights, which were contributing to the Nifty recovery until noon, turned adverse and began to pull the index down, eventually ending 270 points off the highs of the day. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were ably assisted by Reliance Industries and M&M, SBI, Infosys and TCS in contributions to the downside.
Pharma as a sector stood tall though, as has been the case through the last few weeks. Select IT stocks also staged a recovery from the lows of the day, particularly Midcap IT names like Persistent Systems, Coforge and Mphasis. Adani Group names like Adani Enterprises and Adani Wilmar were also in the news on Monday, the former ending nearly 8% higher, while Wilmar closed in the red.
Of course, all of this price action must be considered with the fact that volumes and participation continue to remain low as the year draws to a close and the real test of the market will only begin next week when participation is back in full force.
Going into the final trading day of the year, the Nifty has closed marginally below its immediate support of 23,700. With Call writing seen at the 23,900 and 24,100 strikes ahead of Monday’s session, that was always going to be a barrier for the index to cross. Ahead of New Year’s Eve, the Nifty is up 8.7% so far for the year and it will be the ninth straight positive returns in a calendar year for the benchmark index.
Important macro cues also emerge as the week goes by. Starting Wednesday, companies will begin presenting business updates for the quarter gone by, Auto companies will release sales figures for December and for 2024 and for the full year along with Manufacturing and Services PMI for the month of December as well.
Foreign institutions continued to remain net sellers in the cash market, while domestic institutions were net buyers.
The crucial support of the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average has been violated again at 23,700 and the opening downside gap of December 19 remains unfilled. Such an opening down gap which is unfilled, is considered a bearish run-away gap and which is normally formed in the middle of the downtrend, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, who expects further downside for the index. He sees support between 23,500 – 23,400 levels, with immediate resistance at 23,800.
Osho Krishnan of Angel One said that the 23,600 – 23,500 level is very important for the Nifty, and that is where buying interest could potentially emerge. On the other hand, the 23,800 – 23,850 zone remains a barrier and closing above this is key for the uptrend to sustain. Until a decisive break happens on either side, Krishnan advises proceeding with caution and remain vigilant in trading.
“23,800 to 23,900 Nifty has been finding resistance around those levels. And until we get a meaningful or a convincing close above those levels, I think the overall trend for the market would be sideways to negative. In fact, on the lower side, there is a chance that Nifty might go and test the levels of 23,300, at least in January series. The volatility is likely to expand in this month because we have a couple of events,” Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities said.
The Nifty Bank was a major culprit for the Nifty’s decline on Monday. The index screen would show a 360-point drop, but the index fell over 1,000 points from the highs of the day, which stands close to levels of 52,000. The index has not closed above the mark of 52,000 since December 18 and that level has become a barrier for the index in recent times. For Tuesday, the December 20 low of 50,609 will be key to watch out for on the banking index.
Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates said that the Nifty Bank has formed a red candle on its daily chart but has defended its 200-Day Moving Average at 50,600 levels. The 50-DEMA will now act as a resistance, which is close to Monday’s high of 51,960. He expects the index to consolidate within the 50,500 – 52,000 range for the short-term and a breakout in either direction is needed for future direction.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks on Monday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Adani Total Gas | 2.92% | 39.94% |
| Indian Hotels | 1.25% | 20.78% |
| Kalyan Jewellers | 0.62% | 20.42% |
| Zomato | 0.97% | 15.19% |
| JSW Energy | 1.23% | 11.76% |
Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Tuesday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Jindal Stainless | -6.85% | 36.02% |
| Supreme Industries | -1.58% | 25.50% |
| Prestige Estates | -3.25% | 14.89% |
| Macrotech | -2.18% | 14.86% |
| Avenue Supermarts | -1.31% | 14.26% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Tuesday’s trading session:
- Banking Stocks: Macro stress tests demonstrate that most banks have adequate capital buffers even under adverse stress scenarios. NBFCs remain healthy with sizeable capital buffers, robust interest margins and earnings along with improving asset quality. Banks’ asset quality down to 12-year low. Net NPA at 0.6% as of September.
- ITC: ITC Hotels to be listed within 60 days of receipt of NCLT order, which is December 16, 2024. ITC and ITC Hotels will execute a trademark agreement. ITC Hotels will receive ₹1,500 crore from parent ITC post the demerger.
- Easy Trip Planners: Promoter Nishant Pitti likely to sell up to 14.21% stake via block deals. Floor price fixed at ₹15.6 per share, taking the total deal value to ₹780 crore.
- Lupin: Acquires anti-diabetic medicine Huminsulin in India from Eli Lilly. Huminsulin used to treat Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes to improve blood sugar control. The acquisition will help expand Lupin’s diabetes portfolio.
- Mazagon Dock: Gets contract worth ₹1,990 crore from the Ministry of Defence for the construction of an AIP (Air Independent Propulsion) Plug.
- Hindalco: Government allocates Meenakshi Coal Mine in Odisha to the company. It is a fully explored block with a peak rated capacity of 12 MTPA. Meenakshi Coal Mine has geological reserves of up to 285.23 MT.
- Adani Green Energy: Amit Singh to step down as CEO from March 31, 2025 to transition into a different role within the group. Ashish Khanna to takeover as CEO from April 1, 2025.
- Prataap Snacks: Fire at Jammu facility but no casualties. There has been damage to furniture, inventory, plant and machinery. Third party manufacturing units in Hisar and Karnal will cater to North Indian demand till Jammu unit resumes normal operations.
