Coaches always think they’ll have plenty of time when they’re first hired. They believe their bosses will show patience. They’re convinced the wins will come fast.
And at some point, in most cases, they quickly find out that they’re wrong.
That day is coming soon for several current NFL head coaches, with the NFL’s “Black Monday” now just a few days away. Three coaches have already been fired during the regular season. By Monday there will be more — possibly many more — that will follow them out the door.
So with just one game to go to try and change their fates, and probably one week left in several head coaching careers, here is the final FOX Sports ranking of the NFL coaches sitting on the hottest seats in the league:
1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Previous ranking: 1st): The former Super Bowl-winning coach has held the top spot for months, and there are some in the NFL still shocked that he wasn’t fired at the bye week in late November.
The Jaguars (4-12) have actually played better since then, going 2-2 over the last four weeks. Of course, both those wins came against the Tennessee Titans (3-13), so it’s hard to imagine that has changed Pederson’s fate.
Owner Shahid Khan is still likely to fire his coach after just three seasons almost as soon as they wrap up their season in Indianapolis on Sunday. The only two real questions are: 1. With Bill Belichick off the market (mostly), is there a big swing Khan can take with his next coach? And 2. Is this it for Pederson, or will he be the rare head coach who gets a shot with a third NFL team?
2. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (Previous ranking: 3rd): Pierce’s strength has always been in the way he connects with and motivates his players. That’s how he earned the job after rallying them as an interim coach last season. And he’s done it again, getting this undermanned team to play a lot better after calling them “the worst team in football” heading into their game in Kansas City in Week 13.
“Better” is relative, though. His Raiders (4-12) have won two straight, snapping a season-killing, 10-game losing streak, but their wins are against the Jaguars (4-12) and Saints (5-11). Pierce’s motivational talents haven’t overcome the limitations of his staff and some of his coaching decisions, nor has it made up for the disastrous roster he helped build.
Especially with new part-owner Tom Brady on board and expected to have a large role in fixing this mess, it’s feeling more and more like the Raiders will clean house. Pierce probably was in a no-win situation when he took this job. But he still didn’t win enough to keep it.
3. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (Previous ranking: 2nd): The Giants are telling everyone who will listen that Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen are not “a package deal”, which sure makes it sound like they’re planning to keep one and not the other. And their history certainly suggests the GM isn’t going anywhere just yet.
So despite a strong belief in the Giants organization that co-owner John Mara doesn’t want to fire yet another coach, it’s starting to look like he will. The Giants are 3-13, including 1-8 at home, and outside of their 45-point anomaly against the Colts on Sunday, Daboll’s offense simply can’t consistently score.
The one thing in Daboll’s favor might be this: The one year he got good quarterback play (2022) he took the team to the playoffs and was the NFL’s Coach of the Year. But if the Giants decide to let him develop whatever young quarterback they draft in April, they know it can’t just be for one year. They need to make a longer-term commitment to the next coach-QB partnership.
And with an 18-31-1 overall record, Daboll hasn’t made a convincing argument that he should be the long-term guy.
4. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots (Previous ranking: N/R): The Man Who Replaced Bill Belichick in New England is a late addition (and riser) on this list because generally, teams don’t fire coaches after just one season. And many think owner Robert Kraft isn’t bold enough to do that.
But this has been an ugly season in New England. The Patriots clearly found their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, but everything else about the 3-13 team has been terrible — including the defense, which figured to be Mayo’s specialty. They don’t exactly have great personnel, but too many of their games just haven’t been very competitive.
They will likely finish the season on a seven-game losing streak, and multiple league sources believe Kraft will at least look around at his options. With Maye and the likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, he could turn to someone who could build a better future offense.
5. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (Previous ranking: 4th): Right up until their blowout loss in Philadelphia on Sunday, the Cowboys (7-9) were playing hard and well for McCarthy. They had won four of five games despite losing starting quarterback Dak Prescott and a bunch of other key players to injuries.
And the fact that they didn’t quit seemed to mean a lot to Jerry Jones, who has been effusive in his praise of McCarthy and the coaching job he’s done in recent weeks. He’s said so many nice things, in fact, that it’s really impossible to envision him taking it all back next week.
Still, McCarthy’s contract expires in early January and there’s been no indication that any new deal has been discussed. In fact, at this point, some people in the league wonder if McCarthy would even want to come back. He could end up drawing interest from the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, or maybe even the Patriots. None of those are better situations, but if some owner shows him the (financial) love that Jones isn’t willing to show him, you never know.
6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (Previous ranking: 5th): He has probably saved his job with the Bengals’ sprint to the finish line. They’ve won four straight games to get back to .500 (8-8) and get close enough to the playoff race that their fate will come down to the final week. All of that is good and will likely earn him another year.
But he certainly hasn’t helped himself this season with a series of head-scratching coaching decisions and the bizarre clock management that nearly cost the Bengals their overtime win over the Broncos on Saturday. It also says something that the Bengals are 0-7 against playoff teams this year (1-7 if the Broncos make it). Sure, all but one of those losses was by a touchdown or less, but that’s exactly where good coaching makes a difference.
This is a good team with a dynamic quarterback and receivers. No one will want to face them if they make the playoffs. But if they don’t, they have to at least consider that Taylor is a big reason why.
7. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (Previous ranking: N/R): Another surprising addition to this list comes because there is increasing chatter around the NFL that Colts general manager Chris Ballard might be in some trouble after eight seasons in Indianapolis. And while a GM firing doesn’t necessarily mean the coach is gone too, it usually does.
It’s also not like Steichen has done a great job in Indy. He inherited a mess, to be sure, but he’s had some questionable handling of young quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has shown little progress as a passer. The Colts (7-9) have also won just three of their last eight games. And while their schedule was pretty tough, there was no excuse for giving up 45 points on Sunday to a Giants team averaging 14 points per game.
If Ballard isn’t fired, Steichen will probably get a third year. But if owner Jim Irsay switches GMs, the new GM will probably want to hire a new coach, too.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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