Among the casualties were 62 passengers and five crew members, with 29 survivors, including two young girls aged 11 and 16. Survivors seated in the tail section reported hearing loud explosions outside the aircraft shortly after its request to land at Grozny airport was denied.
New onboard video shows a woman injured in the leg (Azerbaijani source Caliber says “by shrapnel”) inside the cabin of crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane.
“Many questions remain, and the investigation will provide answers.” pic.twitter.com/IFtuTCTgJv— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024
Possible missile strike
Reports from foreign media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, cited aviation experts who pointed to damage consistent with missile shrapnel. Photographs and video footage of the wreckage revealed multiple holes in the fuselage, with some resembling pinpricks and others several inches wide.
A video shared on X (formerly Twitter) by Clash Report, a military conflict news platform, highlighted the extent of the damage.
Very interesting: Shrapnel marks on the fuselage of Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan today. pic.twitter.com/3X5PTIR66E
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024
Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at aviation risk management firm Osprey Flight Solutions, told The Journal: “The wreckage and circumstances around airspace security in southwest Russia indicate… the aircraft was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire.”
Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka echoed this sentiment, stating the holes observed in the wreckage resembled damage caused by an anti-aircraft missile system. He noted that such incidents could result from air-defence systems mistakenly targeting the plane.
Kazakhstan’s Meduza and The Kyiv Independent also reported on the possibility of a surface-to-air missile impact, citing similarities with prior incidents involving civilian and military aircraft.
Context of the flight path
The ill-fated flight was travelling through an area where Ukrainian drone activity has been reported. Grozny, the capital of Chechnya and a strategic target amid ongoing tensions, is heavily defended by Russian anti-aircraft systems. Speculation suggests that the plane might have been mistaken for a drone by these defences.
Adding to the conjecture, reports indicate that Grozny had been attacked by Ukrainian drones weeks earlier, possibly heightening the alertness of air defence units. However, these claims remain unverified.
Emergency manoeuvres and crash
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane reportedly faced additional technical issues during its return journey. After turning back across the Caspian Sea, possibly aiming for Kazakhstan, a second emergency — potentially a hydraulics failure — necessitated a request to land at Aqtau airport. The aircraft crashed into a field approximately 3 km from the runway.
This video shows what happened in the minutes before the plane crash in Kazakhstan. The plane repeatedly went up and down before crashing. pic.twitter.com/dQ0H1c9R0R
— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) December 25, 2024
Frightening visuals circulating online showed the plane struggling to maintain altitude before descending into a nosedive and breaking apart on impact. Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the crash to a bird strike but later retracted this statement.
Investigation underway
The plane’s black box has been recovered, and investigators are analysing flight data and voice recordings. Should it be confirmed that a Russian missile caused the crash, it would mark the second such incident involving a commercial airliner — the first being Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-17 in 2014, which was downed over Ukraine by Russian-backed forces.
Russian officials have dismissed premature conclusions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasised the need to await the results of the investigation.
Meanwhile, Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev stated, “Real experts are looking… they will make their conclusions. Neither Kazakhstan nor Russia nor Azerbaijan, of course, are interested in hiding information.”
A national tragedy
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared a national day of mourning and cancelled his scheduled visit to a Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Russia. In a statement, he cited “worsening weather conditions” as a potential factor while also promising a thorough investigation into the incident.
“I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash and wish a speedy recovery to the injured,” President Aliyev said. Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva expressed her grief, stating she was “deeply saddened by the tragic loss of lives.”
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