College Football Playoff odds for the first round have been percolating for the better part of two weeks. No doubt, the favorites are getting a lot of attention from the public betting masses.
But there’s an underdog getting some notice, too.
“There’s a lot of action on Tennessee, both on the spread and on the moneyline,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
So perhaps Ohio State, a 7.5-point home favorite, is on upset alert for the last game of the first round.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on College Football Playoff first-round odds.
For Starters
The CFP opens with an 8 p.m. ET Friday night kickoff between No. 10 Indiana and No. 7 Notre Dame. And it’s the matchup with the closest point spread.
The Fighting Irish are -7 (-115) at Caesars Sports, after opening -8 (-105) and spending a lot of time at -7.5. But most of the action is running counter to the line movement.
“We saw some sharp action on Tennessee +7.5. But the money we’ve seen so far has been mostly Notre Dame, coupled with the Under,” Feazel said.
Still, the total is actually up a tick from the Dec. 8 opening number of 51.5, sitting at 52 late Wednesday night. But it’s been as low as 50.5.
Limited Interest
No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas seems like an intriguing matchup. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are 10-3 straight up (SU) and 6-6 against the spread (ATS), eking into the 12-team field by winning the ACC title. But Clemson has now reached the College Football Playoff seven times, winning the 2016-17 and 2018-19 national titles.
And the Longhorns (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) have a massive following that’s thirsty for a National Championship, as they haven’t won it all since the 2005-06 season.
A lot could change — and probably will — between now and Saturday’s 4 p.m. ET kickoff in Austin. But bettors aren’t that enthused by this game as the weekend approaches.
“Right now, we’re seeing more Clemson money come in. But this is the least popular playoff game thus far,” Feazel said.
That’s due in part to the point spread. Texas is the biggest first-round favorite in College Football Playoff odds. The Longhorns opened -11 and are up to -12 at Caesars.
Feazel noted last week that the likely need will be what he termed the “Super Bowl middle.”
“If they like the ‘dog, they’ll play the moneyline for that value. If they like the favorite, they’ll play the point spread,” he said. “So we need that Super Bowl middle.”
Meaning Texas wins the game but Clemson covers the big spread.
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On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is looking at the first CFP game and liking what he sees with the favorite Notre Dame.
In one of the season’s biggest upsets, Notre Dame stumbled badly back on Sept. 7, losing at home 16-14 to four-touchdown underdog Northern Illinois. But since then, the Fighting Irish have won 10 in a row by an average margin of 30.8 points. Only one of Notre Dame’s wins in that stretch was by less than 14.
In the first-ever game under the 12-team format, Notre Dame enters at 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS, while visiting Indiana is 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS. That puts both teams among the top five in the nation at covering the spread.
The Irish are 7-point favorites over the Hoosiers, who reached double-digit wins for the first time in school history.
While Indiana’s rise to prominence has been one of the season’s feel-good stories, Stone likes Notre Dame’s current trajectory and believes it will prevail over the Hoosiers by double digits.
“Indiana flopped in its first shot on the big stage, at Ohio State,” Stone said, alluding to a 38-15 Hoosiers loss on Nov. 23. “And I believe it’s punching up in class once again against Notre Dame.”
The Irish allow 13.6 points and 296.8 yards per game defensively, and they are plus-16 this season in net turnover margin.
“Notre Dame’s defense is certainly playing at a high level, and it typically wins the all-important turnover battle,” Stone said. “Plus, the Irish have a healthy and talented Riley Leonard at quarterback. I like Notre Dame -7 and look for the Irish to pull away in the second half.”
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Saturday Start and Finish
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State kicks off the CFP Saturday triple header, at noon ET. The Mustangs are 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS, while the Nittany Lions are 11-2 SU/6-7 ATS.
Not surprisingly, action favors the Big Ten runner-up playing on its home field.
“We’re seeing some favorite money come in. Not as much as on Notre Dame, but it’s trending toward Penn State,” Feazel said. “But this line hasn’t moved since opening.”
The Nittany Lions have been stable 8.5-point favorites since Dec. 8.
The finishing kick on Saturday is the aforementioned matchup of No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State, at 8 p.m. ET. As noted above, Caesars has the Buckeyes (10-2 SU/6-6 ATS) as 7.5-point home favorites vs. the Vols (10-2 SU/7-5 ATS).
Along with underdog Tennessee seeing the bulk of the action — both as a 7.5-point road ‘dog and on the moneyline to pull the upset at +235 — the total is getting some notable action. It opened at 47, dipped to 46.5/46 on Wednesday morning, and it was at 46.5 late Wednesday night.
“We saw some sharper action come in on the Under at 47,” Feazel said.
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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As mentioned in this space last week, the biggest reported bet on College Football Playoff championship futures landed on Texas. A Louisiana customer of Caesars Sports dropped $1.5 million on the Longhorns at +390 to win the national title.
So, if Texas makes a four-game run over the next month, then the bettor will reap a huge windfall of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.
But some of the more interesting wagers out there are on the longer shots in the 12-team field.
For example, this week, a Caesars customer in Nevada put $2,000 on Arizona State +4000 to win it all. Should the Sun Devils do the unexpected, the bettor will profit $80,000.
Better still are these two small bets with big potential — unlikely as it may be — at Caesars:
- $100 on Arizona State +100000 — in a little easier-to-read format, that’s 1000/1 — to lift the trophy in Atlanta on Jan. 20. If the Sun Devils run the table, then the bettor turns that hundred bucks into $100,000. The bet was made July 18.
- $400 on Boise State +25000 (250/1) to win the CFP, on a bet made July 16. If the Broncos take the title, then the bettor profits $100,000.
Those are two very nice tickets to be sitting on right now, and both will live at least another week, since ASU and Boise State earned first-round byes. We’ll see what bettors think of both those teams next week, when the second-round matchups are set.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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