US initial jobless claims fall more than expected, signalling a stronger labour market

US initial jobless claims fall more than expected, signalling a stronger labour market

The United States has reported a decline in initial jobless claims, a key indicator of labour market health. For the week ending December 14, claims fell by 22,000 to 220,000, well below the forecasted 229,000. This drop suggests fewer individuals sought unemployment benefits for the first time, indicating a resilient labour market.

The drop from the previous figure of 242,000 claims is seen as a sign that the job market is strengthening, potentially boosting consumer spending, a crucial driver of the US economy. Economists consider initial jobless claims as a real-time gauge of economic conditions, with lower claims often reflecting economic growth and stability.

A decrease in jobless claims is typically viewed as a positive for the US dollar (USD), as a stronger labour market could lead to increased spending and potentially higher inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to attract investors seeking higher yields, further supporting the USD.

Despite the positive reading, economists caution against drawing conclusions from a single data point, recommending that the four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, provides a clearer picture of the labour market’s health.

Continuing claims also showed a decline, dropping by 5,000 to 1.874 million for the week ending December 7. The four-week moving average of continuing claims decreased by 6,000 to 1.880 million, reinforcing the overall strength of the labour market.

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