Will the US central bank opt for a 25 or 50 bps rate cut?

Will the US central bank opt for a 25 or 50 bps rate cut?

US Fed Meeting LIVE Updates: The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on December 18. This would mark the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% from the current 4.5%-4.75%.

US Fed Meeting LIVE Updates: The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on December 18. This would mark the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% from the current 4.5%-4.75%.

The decision comes as markets remain confident in a rate reduction, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicating a 99% probability. December’s robust employment data and last week’s inflation readings have supported expectations for further easing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to release the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday (December 18) or 12.30 am IST on Thursday (December 19), followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (1 am IST).

Analysts will scrutinise Powell’s remarks and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) updated economic projections for signals on the 2025 monetary policy trajectory.

While a 25-basis-point cut is almost certain, the likelihood of another rate reduction in January appears slim, with markets pricing in only a 15% chance. The upcoming policy shift is expected to be the final adjustment under Powell’s leadership before the new Trump administration takes office in January 2025.

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