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India became the second biggest buyer of Russian crude oil since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, with purchases rising from less than one per cent of the total oil imported to almost 40 per cent of the country’s total oil purchases.
The rise was primarily because Russian crude oil was available at a discount to other internationally traded oil due to the price cap and the European nations shunning purchases from Moscow.
“India’s imports of Russian crude oil dropped by a massive 55% in November – the lowest figure since June 2022,” the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said its latest report.
Russia remained India’s top oil supplier, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
“China has bought 47% of Russia’s crude exports, followed by India (37%), the EU (6%), and Turkey (6%),” CREA said without giving absolute numbers.
In November, there was a 17% month-on-month increase in the discount on Russia’s Urals grade crude oil to an average of $6.01 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil. The discount on the ESPO grade narrowed by a massive 15% and was traded at an average discount of $3.88 per barrel while that on the Sokol blend narrowed by 2% to $6.65 per barrel, it said.
Russia predominantly sells ESPO and Sokol grades of crude oil to India.
Besides crude oil, India bought smaller quantities of coal from Russia.
“From December 5, 2022 until the end of November 2024, China purchased 46 per cent of all Russia’s coal exports – India (17%), Turkey (11%), South Korea (10%), and Taiwan (5%) round off the top five buyers list,” according to CREA.
All fossil fuels taken together, “India dropped to third in the list of largest buyers of Russian fossil fuels in November, contributing 17% (EUR 2.1 billion) to Russia’s monthly export earnings from its top five importers. There was a significant 22% drop in Russian revenues from crude oil exports to India in November,” it said.
While there was an 11% month-on-month decline in the total volume of India’s imports of crude oil in November, Russian volumes suffered the most, dropping by a massive 55%.
India imports more than 85% of its crude oil, which is refined into fuels like petrol and diesel refineries.
In an attempt to restrict funds for Russia’s war machine, The Group of Seven (G7) rich nations, the European Union and Australia put an embargo on Russian crude and introduced a $60 per barrel price cap in December 2022. Over the next 12 months, the price cap and embargo had a significant impact on revenues, and forced Russia to find new markets and ways to transport its oil.
Russia did this by offering deep discounts on its Urals grade crude.
“It has been two years since the imposition of the price cap. CREA estimates that in this period, the sanctions have forced Russia to drop the price of Urals by an estimated 15%. Since the sanctions, Russia has lost an estimated EUR 14.6 billion in revenues from Urals grade crude exports,” the report said.
In the second year of the sanctions, CREA estimates that sanctions impacted Russian Urals crude revenues by 10% resulting in losses of EUR 4 billion.
This impact was felt heavily for the first half of 2024 when Russian revenues were hit by EUR 2.5 billion.
“The price cap has had an impact but has failed to live up to its potential. A lack of enforcement and desire to lower the price cap has meant Russia has found a way to circumvent the cap and find new markets as time has gone by, especially in the second year of the sanctions,” it said.
In the first year of the sanctions Russia was losing, on an average, 23% of its Urals crude export revenues every month due to the price cap and embargo. This figure has fallen sharply to a mere monthly average of 9% in the second year of the cap. The impact has reduced steadily through 2024 – the effect on revenues in October was 63% lower than that in January.
“As Russia has built a network of ‘shadow’ tankers, it can trade its oil above the cap to new markets in non-sanctioning countries,” CREA added.
