The United Nations reports that over 1 million people have been displaced since Syrian rebels launched their offensive that ultimately ousted former President Assad. While UN Secretary General António Guterres called for a de-escalation following Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, Israel has defended its actions, citing security concerns, and confirmed its forces will remain in the areas they have seized. The US has backed Israel’s stance, emphasising its right to self-defence.
Amid these developments, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, focusing on Syria’s political transition. Blinken urged Turkey to safeguard civilian lives following the fall of Assad’s government to Ankara-supported rebels.
CNBC-TV18 spoke with Daniel Levy, President of the US Middle East Project, to analyse the evolving dynamics in Syria and their broader implications.
Excerpt:
Q: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been saying that this is a plan that Israel and the US made together to topple the Assad regime. How would you view the statements that are coming in from Iran right now and the US role in what has transpired over the last seven or eight days in Syria?
Levy: Many parts of the world lend themselves to theories of what has gone on, which are often disconnected from reality. The sense that I have, and I think many people watching this, is that several external actors have significant roles they seek to play in Syria. That isn’t limited to Israel or the US; you’ve already mentioned Turkey, Russia and Iran themselves are engaged in Syria, of course.
But the sense is that this was driven mainly domestically. Many people, myself included, have been surprised by the extent to which the regime was hollowed out over the years of running a repressive policy towards its people.
Once Russia and Iran decided that they were not going to double down on a losing bet with Assad, and Assad himself had been trying to hold the stick from both ends, if you like. Much as he had relied on Russia and Iran, he was establishing relations with countries less friendly to them. And once they decided to pull their support, once the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is the main rebel group that we’ve been looking a lot at, decided this was the time to make that advance, I think this was driven locally. And when the fear dissipated of the Assad regime, you see the result. This is a day of celebration for Syrians. They are uncovering more and more of what we knew, but we didn’t have the evidence of the horrendous crimes of the Assad regime. But as we’re seeing now, this is a day of celebration across Syria of people who are feeling that freedom, that liberation, and it warms the heart, to be honest.
Q: What we would also like to ask you is about the Israeli airstrikes. In the last few days, 480 airstrikes have happened on Syria from Israel. What do you think is Israel’s larger plan of action right now?
Levy: This is quite remarkable in its aggression, the Israeli military airstrike action in Syria. What Israeli military analysts are saying is that this is the largest Israeli airstrike conducted ever, anywhere. That’s the extent of this. What Israel has done is that it has said this is to make sure that harmful, threatening, especially chemical, weapons don’t fall into the hands of potentially threatening rebels. That does not go anywhere near explaining this extent of action, because what has been taken out is not just suspected chemical weapons sites, and of course you have an international organisation, the OPCW. This is their job. There is such a thing as international institutions, international law. Israel tends not to put too much stock in those things and tends to act outside of the framework of international law, but that’s how you deal with this.
What Israel has actually done, both in the airstrikes and in seizing Syrian territory, it has laid down a marker. It has destroyed what would have been, one assumes, part of a future successor Syrian state government’s ability to defend its territory, including against the likes of ISIS, Daesh. So it has done a great disservice to the prospects of a smooth transition in Syria. It has undercut the potential to defend itself from the successor state, and it has seized certain territory.
Now, you see America and other Western states lining up to embrace Israel’s narrative and endorse what Israel has done, but you see states in the region doing the opposite because they know that in a very fragile situation in Syria, this is going to undermine further the ability to move forward with a smooth transition, and this is going to sow the seeds of further chaos.
I think Israel may consider that it’s sending the signal to the region, we’re the new boss, we’re the policemen, we’re the hegemon in this region, but I think how a broad cross-section is interpreting it, I’m not just talking here about Iran and the Axis of Resistance, it’s even Israel’s neighbours, those it has peace-treaties with, those who would like to have treaties with, I think how they’re interpreting this is that this is an Israel that increasingly looks like it is out of control and acting like a rogue state in the region. And I think that is a cause of concern for everyone. And many people are linking this also, of course, to domestic politics, which can never be left out. People may know or not know that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in court this week, defending himself against very serious accusations. And he would rather the story be Israel’s strikes in Syria, rather than him in the dock facing those charges.
Watch the accompanying video for the entire conversation.
