2024-25 College Football Playoff: Comparing blind résumés of bubble teams

Entering conference championship weekend, the College Football Playoff committee has made it clear that there’s only one bubble spot remaining.

Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who also happens to be the chairman of the CFP committee, said that teams not playing this weekend won’t be able to surpass other teams that are following the most recent rankings unveiling.

Notre Dame (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 6), Tennessee (No. 7), Indiana (No. 9) and the losers of the Big Ten (Penn State vs. Oregon) and SEC (Georgia vs. Texas) title games currently hold six of the seven at-large bids in the CFP field.

With six of those spots seemingly locked in, Alabama currently holds the final at-large spot in the 12-team field. The committee ranked the Crimson Tide 11th in the most recent rankings, meaning Miami (Fla.) (No. 12), South Carolina (No. 13) and Ole Miss (No. 14) won’t be able to pass them for the final at-large spot.

But Alabama might not have the final at-large spot on lock. SMU, who was ranked eighth in the most recent poll, plays 17th-ranked Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. If the Mustangs win, they’ll receive an automatic berth into the CFP and likely a first-round bye. If they lose, they won’t have an automatic berth and risk being left out of the field in favor of Alabama.

Let’s take a look at whether the committee got it right by ranking Alabama ahead of the other teams battling for the final spot, with insight from FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd. You can vote on which team has the best blind résumé at the end.

Team A

Record: 10-2 (.833)
AP Rank: 14th
SOS: 55
Point Differential/game: 20.3 (8th)
Wins vs. current CFP top 25: 0-1 (.000)Lost by four points vs only CFP-ranked opponent (currently ranked 22nd)
Lost by four points vs only CFP-ranked opponent (currently ranked 22nd)
Best win (highest CFP-ranked win): zero CFP-ranked wins
Record vs. FBS teams with winning record: 3-2 (.600)
Record in FBS road/neutral games: 4-2 (.667)

Team A has the best overall record of the teams on the bubble, and it was dominant in the majority of its wins this season. However, it lacked any true high-quality wins in the regular season and is the only team on the bubble without a ranked win. It’s just one of three teams in the top 15 without a win against a team currently ranked in the CFP poll.

Team A also ended its season on a relatively low note. It lost two of its final three games after getting out to a 9-0 start to the season. It arguably did enough in those games offensively — as it arguably has the best offense in college football this season, ranking first in yards and points per game. It’s closer to the middle of the pack defensively, though, ranking 60th in points allowed per game.

Alabama ranked over Miami, Ole Miss & South Carolina in CFP rankings

Team B

Record: 9-3 (.750)
AP Rank: 13th
SOS: 15
Point Differential/game: 13.8 (17th)
Wins vs. current CFP top 25: 2-2 (.500)-4.8 average point differential in those games
-4.8 average point differential in those games
Best win (highest CFP-ranked win): at team currently ranked 17th
Record vs. FBS teams with winning record: 3-3 (.500)
Record in FBS road/neutral games: 4-1 (.800)

Team B has been the hottest team of the four teams on the bubble. It’s won its last six games, winning four of them by at least three scores. It’s also picked up two ranked wins over that stretch, winning both games by one score.

Team B’s path gets a little tough when you consider its losses to CFP-ranked teams. Both losses are against teams that are also on the bubble, losing the head-to-head argument. In addition to being the hottest team on the bubble, Team B can claim to have beaten teams that other teams on the bubble failed to defeat. Team B beat two teams that Team C lost to, winning both games by at least 21 points. Team B also beat a team by 26 that Team D lost to.

In terms of team makeup, Team B isn’t spectacular offensively. It ranks 48th in yards, 52nd in yards per play and 42nd in scoring. However, it has one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking 16th in yards allowed and 14th in points allowed.

Team C

Record: 9-3 (.750)
AP Rank: 11th
SOS: 17
Point Differential/game: 18.3 (12th)
Wins vs. current CFP top 25: 3-1 (.750)+9.0 average point differential in those games
+9.0 average point differential in those games
Best win (highest CFP-ranked win): vs. team currently ranked fifth
Record vs. FBS teams with winning record: 5-1 (.833)
Record in FBS road/neutral games: 2-3 (.400)

Team C’s best argument is that the other bubble teams don’t have wins that are as strong. In addition to beating the team currently ranked fifth in the CFP poll, Team C also has ranked wins over Team B and the 19th-ranked team. Team C’s wins over the fifth-ranked team and Team B were only by a score, but it beat the 19th-ranked team by 34.

In addition to a head-to-head win over Team B, Team C also beat a team that both Teams B and D lost to by 29 points. Team C’s one loss against a ranked team was by seven points on the road. However, Team C’s other two losses came against teams that finished the season 6-6. One of those losses was by 21 points. It also lost three of its last four road games, which is something to consider, as it’ll almost certainly play on the road in the first round if it makes the CFP.

Team C’s offense was one of the game’s most electrifying offenses for most of the season before running into some problems later in the year. Still, it ranked 40th in the nation in yards, 22nd in yards per play and 17th in points. It played some better defense more recently, though. It ranks 33rd in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed.

Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd weigh in on CFP committee’s rankings

Team D

Record: 9-3 (.750)
AP Rank: 15th
SOS: 31
Point Differential/game: 23.6 (4th)
Wins vs. current CFP top 25: 2-0 (1.000)+21 average point differential in those games
+21 average point differential in those games
Best win (highest CFP-ranked win): vs. team currently ranked fifth
Record vs. FBS teams with winning record: 3-2 (.600)
Record in FBS road/neutral games: 3-2 (.600)

Team D has shown a high ceiling throughout the 2024 season. Unlike the other three bubble teams, it can claim that it has beaten every ranked team it has faced this season. It defeated the fifth-ranked team by 18 points and Team B on the road by 24. It also beat one of the teams that Team C lost to by 12 points.

On the flip side, arguably no one else on the bubble has losses worse than the ones Team D has. All three of the losses Team D has suffered are against teams that are currently unranked in the CFP poll. One of those losses was to a 7-5 squad and the other was to a 4-8 team who only had one win against a power conference foe this season.

Similar to Team A, Team D has one of the nation’s best offenses. It ranks second in yards, second in yards per play and ninth in scoring. Unlike Team A, though, Team D’s defense has been strong this season. It ranks 18th in yards allowed and fourth in points against.

The verdict from Klatt and Cowherd: Team C

Now, for the reveal: Team A is Miami, Team B is South Carolina, Team C is Alabama and Team D is Ole Miss.

As there has been some uproar over Alabama’s placement in the CFP rankings due to its Week 13 loss to Oklahoma, 24-3, both Klatt and Cowherd were in agreement that its résumé was the strongest of the four.

“Miami, you play in a lousy conference, you have two losses and you don’t have a good win,” Cowherd said. “Alabama has three losses. Ideally, I don’t like that. I don’t think you should have two mulligans. But they beat Georgia. Losing to Oklahoma is not the worst thing in the world. They were also 3-1 against ranked teams. I don’t like them having an extra mulligan … but I’m taking Alabama over Miami and the other options.”

Alabama & Texas in Joel Klatt’s final CFP bracket

Klatt believed that Alabama’s résumé would beat any of the other three bubble teams head-to-head.

“I think based on the strength of schedule [and] based on what Miami did within their ACC play, they had a very favorable ACC schedule where they didn’t have to plan many of the top teams,” Klatt said. “Bama’s résumé is not great. To me, the bubble was those teams from 11-14 — Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Miami. If you put Alabama head-to-head, résumé-to-résumé with all of those bubble teams, they win the argument.”

Klatt wanted to emphasize that while he doesn’t necessarily think Alabama is a true title contender, it has the strongest playoff case of the bubble teams left.

“I know people don’t like it and I understand that,” Klatt added. “I’m not saying this is a great option. I’m just saying that in an argument, Bama wins those arguments. Miami doesn’t have a ranked win. You could also say they’re losing at the wrong time, losing two of their last three games.

“This is not a great option, and I don’t think Alabama is a great team. I don’t think that they have a chance to win the national championship. But in a résumé argument with Miami, they win that argument.”

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