The 2023 quarterback draft class has now had nearly two full NFL seasons.
The group still brings more intrigue than certainty as to who they’ll become in the league.
There’s the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, who put together arguably the best rookie quarterback season ever. This season, however, all the talk has been about regression. Then there’s the Panthers’ Bryce Young and Colts’ Anthony Richardson, both of whom were benched earlier this season. But they have shown steady improvement since being reinserted as QB1. The same could be said about the Titans’ Will Levis, who has been one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks since returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for three games.
As the varying experiences of the top four quarterbacks in the 2023 draft show, the development of young passers can be non-linear.
“Looking for guys to be consistent in the approach,” Titans coach Brian Callahan said Wednesday of what’s important for a young quarterback. “Their week-to-week routine, how they practice, that’s a big part of what it looks like. The consistency in practice. And then, you’re going to look at when we’re making mistakes, are we learning from them? Are there repeated mistakes or are we repeating things that we’ve talked about multiple times?
“[Corrections are] generally what you’re looking for, and a very overarching theme is that it may not necessarily show up exactly on Sunday or your performance … because a lot of factors go into that,” Callahan continued. “But the repeating of mistakes, as limited as you can make that, that’s when you see growth. And then take some coaching.”
So why has Stroud struggled? Why have Young, Richardson and Levis all made strides?
Here’s a snapshot of where each quarterback stands with five weeks left in the regular season:
C.J. STROUD
Last season (15 games): 63.9% completion rate for 4,108 yards (8.2 yards per attempt) and 23 touchdowns against five interceptions with a 100.8 passer rating and a 46.7% passing success rate
This season (13 games): 63.3% completion rate for 3,117 yards (7.2 yards per attempt) and 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions with an 87.9 passer rating and 42.9% passing success rate
Why the dip:
Defenses are playing him differently, for one.
An example: 19.2% of his dropbacks this season have been against Cover 2 (two deep safeties), compared to just 10.6% last year, according to Next Gen Stats, making it more difficult to hit on the deep in-breaking routes and crossers he had so much success with last season. Additionally, he’s seeing less base defense (four defensive backs) in 2024. Opponents were in it 26% of the time when he dropped back as a rookie, compared to 20.7% this season. Armed with a season’s worth of film on Stroud, defenses are respecting his ability to throw the ball.
Injuries to key Texans haven’t helped either. Veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL, while leading wideout Nico Collins missed five games with a hamstring injury before returning in mid-November. Playcalling and undisciplined play have been factors, too. But there has maybe been no bigger culprit in Stroud’s regression than the offensive line, which has been one of the worst in the NFL this season. Houston was 18th in pressure rate allowed and tied for 22nd in sacks allowed last season. This season, the O-line ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and 28th in sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Reference.
Surrounding cast aside, Stroud has seemed to miss more open throws than he did last year and there’s been an uptick in his interception rate (from a league-leading 1.0% as a rookie to 2.1% this year). But his turnover-worth play rate is actually marginally better in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus — 2.6% this season compared to 2.8 as a rookie.
Stroud’s step back may be better described as a sophomore slump and coming closer to his mean as a player than the start of a downward trajectory. He remains the top quarterback in this class.
BRYCE YOUNG
First two games of the season (pre-benching): 55.5% completion rate for 245 yards (4.3 yards per pass attempt) for no touchdowns against three interceptions with a 44.1 passer rating
Past five games (post-benching): 60.3% completion rate for 1,082 yards (6.4 yards per pass attempt) with six touchdowns against three interceptions with an 83.5 passer rating
Why the improvement:
Young has said he’s more comfortable in Dave Canales’ system. Where that’s shown up, according to the first-year coach, is in his decisiveness and his play in critical situations.
The numbers back that up.
Since being reinserted as the Panthers’ QB1, Young has a 58% completion rate on seven yards per attempt, a 3:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, plus-2.3 pass EPA and a 99.8 passer rating on third down — up from a 33.3% completion rate, 1.7 yards per attempt, a 0:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, minus-16.2 pass EPA and a 14.6 passer rating on third down through two weeks this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
The former Heisman Trophy winner’s numbers have also improved dramatically in the red zone — a 53.1% completion rate for 3.1 yards per attempt, a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, minus-3.4 pass EPA and an 86.2 passer rating inside the 20-yard line in the past five games, compared to a 0% completion rate (five attempts), minus-8.4 pass EPA and a 39.6 passer rating through two games.
The Panthers have yet to fully recommit to Young being their franchise quarterback, but he appears to be playing his way into another season as Carolina’s QB1.
ANTHONY RICHARDSON
First six games this season (pre-benching): 44.3% completion rate for 958 yards (7.2 yards per pass attempt) and four touchdowns against seven interceptions with a 57.2 passer rating; 41 carries for 242 yards (5.9 yards per rushing attempt) and a touchdown; two lost fumbles
Past three games (post-benching): 52.4% completion rate for 553 yards and three touchdowns against two interceptions with a 75.9 passer rating; 29 carries for 141 yards (4.8 yards per rush attempt) and three touchdowns; one lost fumble
Why the improvement:
Richardson is still struggling to find consistency as a passer, but the Colts have been willing to lean into his rushing ability.
He’s averaging 7.3 designed quarterback runs in three starts after his benching, compared to just 3.3 in the six starts before his benching, according to Next Gen Stats. He had one rushing touchdown in his first six games this season, but has three rushing scores in his past three appearances, all of which have come in the red zone.
Richardson has said running the ball helps him get in the flow of the game, and coach Shane Steichen seems to have finally taken the guardrails off for last year’s No. 4 overall pick, who has led two game-winning drives in the past three weeks. There appeared to be some hesitancy on Indianapolis’ part initially, given his injury history.
Indianapolis has recommitted to Richardson being its quarterback of the future, but significant strides must continue for him to be Colts’ QB1 beyond 2025.
WILL LEVIS
First five games this season (pre-shoulder injury): 66.4% completion rate for 699 yards (5.5 yards per pass attempt) for five touchdowns against seven interceptions with a 70.7 passer rating; three lost fumbles
Past four games (post-shoulder injury): 61.7% completion rate for 960 yards (8.3 yards per pass attempt) and seven touchdowns against two interceptions with a 101.4 passer rating; one lost fumble
Why the improvement:
Levis has a renewed confidence in throwing the deep ball, which had been a strength of his in college and last year, but had disappeared to start this season.
He’s averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt in four starts since returning from his shoulder injury, up from 5.5 the first five games of the season. It’s seemingly a byproduct of his growing comfort in Brian Callahan’s offense. The former Kentucky star said he’s no longer trying to do as much.
Levis’ improved decision-making is reflected in his 101.4 passer rating over the past four games, a drastic jump from 70.8 over his first five appearances in 2024. He’s averaging 0.75 turnovers per game in the last four games, as opposed to two in his first five games.
Navigating the pocket is something he’ll need to work on, though. While the Titans offensive line has had its issues, there have been several occasions when Levis has either held the ball too long or moved into a sack. He’s been sacked 5.5 times per game since Week 10, a slight uptick from his first five games of the year (5).
Like Young, Levis may have earned his way into QB1 status for at least one more season.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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