On the NFL Week 14 oddsboard, there are bigger matchups than the Chicago Bears vs. the San Francisco 49ers. But at some point, we have to address the Niners’ fallout.
San Fran has gone from defending NFC champion — within a whisker of winning the Super Bowl — to an injury-decimated team that is now a significant underdog to just make the playoffs.
The public betting masses have already made that transition.
“The sentiment is that the 49ers are done. They’re not the same team, and that’s being reflected in the market,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Bears vs. 49ers, as well as the more marquee matchups, as we dive into NFL Week 14 betting nuggets.
NFL Rocks On FOX
Bears vs. 49ers is an interesting contest in Week 14 NFL odds, not for where the action is, but for where it isn’t.
The 49ers opened as 6-point favorites and tumbled to -3.5 by late Monday morning. San Fran has since been steady at -4 for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
“We’re seeing Bears money on the spread and the moneyline. Caleb Williams is looking better the past couple weeks,” Feazel said of the Bears rookie quarterback.
San Francisco’s injury-plagued season — now with Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve and fellow running back Jordan Mason out at least this week — has bettors leaping off the Niners bandwagon in droves.
Even at home, against a Bears team that’s just 4-8 straight up (SU). Though it’s worth noting that Chicago is a money-making 7-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
The 49ers (5-7 SU/4-8 ATS) are only two games behind Seattle in the surprisingly mediocre NFC West. Yet on Caesars’ prop bet of whether San Fran makes the playoffs, No is a massive -1600 favorite, while Yes is a +800 underdog.
San Fran has the longest odds to make the playoffs of any NFC West team.
“We’ll see if the Niners have any more fight left in them,” Feazel said.
How close are the Packers to the Lions?
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is looking at three matchups this week, backing underdogs in all three. That starts with the first game on the NFL Week 14 oddsboard: the Green Bay Packers vs. the Detroit Lions.
McKay likes Green Bay +3.5 on the road in the Thursday night game.
“These teams both played on Thanksgiving,” McKay said. “The game earlier this year in Green Bay ended up 24-14 Lions, when Green Bay was banged up. This time, Detroit is banged up on defense, and it will be a close one.”
McKay also likes the biggest underdog on the board in Week 14. He’s on the Carolina Panthers +13.5 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.
“Philly has won eight straight games. But the Eagles are coming off a physical game vs. Baltimore and have a questionable injury report,” McKay said.
Midweek, that injury report includes wideout DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and tight end Dallas Goedert (knee).
“Carolina is a young and improving team,” McKay said.
Finally, McKay is on the Los Angeles Rams +4.5 vs. the visiting Buffalo Bills.
“Buffalo has a tough turnaround after Sunday Night Football vs. the 49ers,” McKay said. “The Rams should have success running the ball vs. the Bills, who play bend-but-don’t-break defense.
“The Rams’ young defense is improving and hopefully will slow down Josh Allen & Co. enough to cover the +4.5.”
And speaking of Bills vs. Rams …
Does Josh Allen dethrone Patrick off Mahomes Mountain heading into Week 14?
NFL Rocks on FOX, PART II
The Buffalo-L.A. clash is also at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX. Buffalo (10-2 SU/8-4 ATS) has won seven in a row, while covering the spread in six of those games. Los Angeles is in the thick of the NFC West chase, despite being just 6-6 SU (5-7 ATS).
“No surprise, we’re seeing Bills money, as Josh Allen separates himself from the field in the MVP race, too,” Feazel said.
The public trend of playing road favorites this season isn’t slowing down for Bills-Rams.
“It’s one-sided action right now. People aren’t deterred,” Feazel said. “Road favorites have been over-performing compared with previous years.”
Sunday Night Showdown
After Packers vs. Lions, Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff is arguably the second-best matchup of the week: the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City (11-1 SU/5-7 ATS) continues to play the role of Houdini, getting wins when perhaps it shouldn’t. Los Angeles (8-4 SU and ATS) has won and covered in five of its last six games.
“The Chiefs got away with what could’ve been a loss to the Raiders on Black Friday,” Feazel said, alluding to K.C.’s 19-17 home victory. “We’re seeing mostly Chargers money at this point. In everybody’s mind, the Chiefs keep getting away with wins.
“And even though the Chiefs are Super Bowl champions, people don’t think they’re better than the Lions, Bills or Eagles at this point.”
Can the Chiefs fix their offense?
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There aren’t too many big wagers yet in NFL Week 14 odds. But a couple landed early at Caesars Sports:
- $67,500 Cardinals‘ moneyline -135 vs. Seahawks. If Arizona just wins the game — it doesn’t have to cover the spread as a 3-point favorite — then the bettor profits $50,000 (total payout $117,500).
- $33,500 Buccaneers moneyline -335 vs. Raiders. If Tampa beats Las Vegas, then the bettor pockets a $10,000 win (total payout $43,500).
Beyond that, how about recounting a little bet that won relatively big money in Week 13?
At DraftKings Sportsbook, a customer put $10 on a 16-team moneyline parlay.
Yep, every Week 13 game was on that ticket.
And all 16 teams came in.
The Lions had to hang on vs. the Bears on Thanksgiving. As noted above, the Chiefs probably should’ve lost to the Raiders. The Vikings and Colts squeaked out 1-point wins vs. the Cardinals and Patriots, respectively. The Buccaneers needed overtime to beat the Panthers.
It all came down to whether Denver could beat Cleveland on Monday night. And the Broncos defense seemed thoroughly disinterested in helping out, allowing Jameis Winston to throw for 497 yards and four touchdowns.
But Denver also got two pick-sixes, then ended the game with an INT in the end zone to seal a 41-32 victory.
So, at odds of +148753 — or nearly 1500/1 — that bettor’s ten bucks turned into $14,885.34.
Not a bad way to roll into the holidays. It definitely lends credence to this being the most wonderful time of the year.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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