Ticket sales at the box office this weekend will be flowing as freely as spice on the desert planet of Arrakis.
Director Denis Villeneuve‘s big-budget sequel “Dune: Part Two,” where “spice” is an all-powerful commodity, is targeting $70 million to $80 million in its opening weekend. Warner Bros., the studio behind the sci-fi epic, is conservatively projecting a $65 million start, though most box office prognosticators believe that revenues could near the $90 million mark. At the international box office, the follow-up to 2021’s “Dune” is projected to collect $80 million to $90 million from roughly 70 markets.
No matter where the initial tally ends up, “Dune: Part Two” will deliver a massive, necessary jolt for movie theaters. It was originally slated to hit the big screen last fall, but it was delayed to spring because the actors strike prevented Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and their co-stars from being able to promote the movie. Now, it’s arriving at a dire time for the industry, with revenues down roughly 18% from 2023. Based on current estimates, the sequel should score the biggest opening weekend since last October’s Blumhouse thriller “Five Nights at Freddy’s” ($80 million).
Ticket sales are expected to exceed its predecessor, which opened during the pandemic to $41 million while landing simultaneously on HBO Max. “Dune: Part One” ended its run with $402 million worldwide, one of the only financial wins from the studio’s COVID-era hybrid release strategy. Still, analysts felt the original would have been bigger with an exclusive theatrical release. The sequel, co-produced and co-financed by Legendary Entertainment, cost $190 million, not including the many millions on marketing and other global promotional efforts.
“Part Two” is this weekend’s only new release, so it’ll command the lion’s share of Imax and Dolby screens. For “Part One,” 50% of domestic revenue came from premium large formats. “Dune” also looks to benefit from pent-up demand (there hasn’t been a blockbuster in weeks) and goodwill toward the original. But will the second chapter be able to expand its fanbase of sci-fi buffs?
Based on the second half of Frank Herbert’s massive book, “Dune 2” continues the mythic quest of Chalamet’s Paul Atreides, who remains on the run and seeking safety in the desert after powerful royals betray his family. Austin Butler, Florence Pugh and Christopher Walken join the sprawling cast of Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin and Stellan Skarsgård.
Reception and word of mouth has been positive, with Variety’s chief film critc Peter Debruge praising the sequel as “a meaty, all-encompassing narrative.” Los Angeles Times critic Joshua Rothkopf called the film “an instant landmark of its genre.”
Reviews are nice, but movie theaters want to sell tickets. And “Dune 2” should help with that.
