Women’s basketball Bracket Watch: USC looks like a No. 1 seed

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Coming into this season, I was excited to watch a multitude of storylines play out, but none more so than wondering what USC’s season would look like. Last year, the plucky Trojans made their first NCAA Tournament in nearly a decade and put together a stifling defensive squad in coach Lindsay Gottlieb’s second season. But after top-ranked recruit JuJu Watkins committed in November 2022, all I could think about while watching USC was what it meant for 2024 when she’d be playing for them.

For anyone aware of Watkins’ game and potential, it was clear she would have a significant impact right away — and the proof is on display this season in Los Angeles.

Watkins has rightfully commanded the majority of storylines coming out of Galen Center, but it’s time to change the tune with respect to the Trojans. This isn’t just a program on the rise. USC has shown it has what it takes to make a Final Four run and is even one of a handful of teams that have what it takes to win the national championship.

Watkins leads the way, one of the brightest stars in the sport, a likely All-American and a candidate for national player of the year as a freshman. But the intentionality of how Gottlieb built the Trojans around her has elevated them. Secondary star McKenzie Forbes has come on strong in Pac-12 competition as a pick-and-roll playmaker and scorer, and she’s one of three Ivy League transfers making a significant impact.

Kayla Padilla has found her groove as the de facto point guard when Watkins doesn’t bring the ball up the court, chipping in with timely 3s and drives to the rim. Kaitlyn Davis is one of the most versatile players in the league, her impact superseding the box score as an elite screen setter and collective playmaker. Her ability to guard every kind of player in every area of the court at 6 foot 2 is rare. Taylor Bigby has played a big role as a versatile defender and shooter as the first player off the bench most nights. Clarice Akunwafo has produced in major matchups when called upon, particularly in USC’s win over Stanford at Maples Pavillion. The Trojans’ trio of deep bench guards — Kayla Williams, Malia Samuels and Dominique Darius — has brought energy at the point of attack and in pressing situations.

Every player has a purpose while pouring into the team philosophy built around USC’s star.

Defense is where the Trojans make a living. They’re active and aggressive, constantly changing and tinkering with principles to best muck up an offense. They have a combined 26.3 percent block and steal rate, the 12th highest in the country, per CBB Analytics.

Their positioning is strong, communication consistent and activity relentless.

Starting center Rayah Marshall is vital to that defense — and to the Trojans with her presence. Though her box score numbers are smaller this season, she’s made tremendous strides across the board. Her ability as a rim protector was unquestionable last season, but she’s become a more tactical defender, staying down more and using her positioning and refined strength to do work for her instead of rejecting every shot. She’s imposing in passing lanes, proves stalwart hedging out on ball screens and is capable of containing on switches against smaller players.

Marshall excels in every facet of defense, while also becoming increasingly efficient in her more condensed offensive role. The Trojans can’t appreciate her play enough.

Is the margin for error thinner for a team that relies so heavily on its star? Absolutely, but as the Trojans have shown through a gantlet of a schedule, punctuated with wins over two other projected No. 1 seeds, their “it” factor and verve make a difference. The Trojans have got next, but they’ve also proved they have a shot now at earning a No. 1 seed for the first time in Bracket Watch.

Multi-bid conferences

Why is Stanford still a No. 1 seed?

Despite a tough loss at home to Arizona (more on it later), Stanford still sports a No.1 seed, dropping from the second overall team to fourth. What keeps the Cardinal in that upper echelon?

Stanford’s resume is bolstered by a plethora of wins: Indiana, Duke and Florida State stand out in nonconference competition. The Cardinal are one of only four teams in Division I with 10 or more Quad 1 wins, highlighting how fantastic they’ve been. Though the selection committee doesn’t use quads, it’s a significant benchmark, as 10 of 16 teams that made it to the second weekend of the tournament had won 10 or more of these games, including each Final Four team.

Especially considering that the Pac-12 has been the strongest conference in the country all season, along with the added element of Cameron Brink missing time, the committee will potentially provide some leeway for the Cardinal’s losses.

Though nothing is guaranteed, beating Oregon State this weekend would go a long way in keeping the door open for two Pac-12 teams earning top seeds.

Is Oklahoma peaking at the right time?

The Sooners ended nonconference play at 6-5, experiencing a roller coaster of highs and lows by winning at Ole Miss to start the year, then losing to Southern in Norman days before Christmas.

The Oklahoma team we’re watching today is wildly different from the one we saw before it embarked on its 14-2 Big 12-leading run. The Sooners’ win at Texas is one of the best wins in the conference, part of their 12-1 stretch since they lost to Kansas State on Jan. 10.

Point guard Nevaeh Tot has sliced and diced every manor and scheme of defense, averaging 5.7 assists per game over that stretch and touching the paint at will. She’s vital to shifting the defense and opening up the Sooners’ secondary offense and flow game to help them lead the country in assist rate over the last 10 games (72.8 percent of all baskets assisted).

Leading scorer Skylar Vann has scored at least 20 points six times, averaging nearly 18 per game on remarkable efficiency. Payton Verhulst is putting up roughly 14 points, six boards and five assists per game while shooting 38 percent from deep on high volume. Freshman Sahara Williams just had arguably her best game of the season, setting a career high with 20 points in the Bedlam rivalry game with Oklahoma State.

The Sooners play fast, make smart offensive decisions, rebound at a high level and have improved greatly on defense over the course of the season. Oklahoma has climbed up to a No. 5 seed in this week’s Bracket Watch, a far cry from where it sat in December. Hosting Texas on Wednesday, the Sooners have a significant opportunity to make hosting in March a possibility.

Can Ole Miss move up the seed list?

Ole Miss has quietly rounded into form over the last few weeks, rising out of the bubble and into the field with consistent wins over the middle of the conference to rank third in the SEC standings behind South Carolina and LSU. The Rebels are enjoying an 8-2 span, including a win that avenged an earlier loss to rival Mississippi State.

Though Ole Miss’ defense has long been its backbone — and this season is no different — finding its offensive form has been key to rising up the seed list. Losing transfer point guard KK Deans to a season-ending injury was a major sting, which immediately set back its offensive execution. After a grueling SEC schedule, Ole Miss really found something with a point-guard-by-committee approach.

Madison Scott has been a bright spot at point forward, averaging over three assists over the last 10 games. Kennedy Todd-Williams has returned to form while showcasing her playmaking ability at an even higher level, leading Ole Miss in assists per game while also maintaining a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio and scoring efficiently.

Marquesha Davis is one of the most improved players in the SEC. Davis is an incredibly talented slasher. She’s taken on an even bigger scoring load in the SEC, leading the Rebels in scoring (14.2 ppg) with her physical yet acrobatic drives to the rim.

Ole Miss is adept at getting to the line, securing its own misses and winning the possession battle with its length and tenacity.

It secured marquee wins over Arizona and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament and added to its body of work in SEC play. Making a significant run in the conference tourney could go a long way in raising the Rebels’ status and getting off the No. 8 or No. 9 line, but winning out the regular season makes them close to a lock for an at-large bid.

This week’s toughest decisions …

Multiple decisions were difficult after a turbulent week of games. The ACC not having a No. 2 seed sits atop the rest as most difficult.

Virginia Tech has risen steadily as it keeps winning, and winning well. NC State has done the inverse. The tricky part is the head-to-head wins from Iowa and LSU over Virginia Tech in nonconference play. While that isn’t everything, with how close I view that trio, it was challenging to put Virginia Tech ahead of either as I considered all three teams’ total resumes and how close they are. If Tech keeps winning, it can certainly overtake, and there’s real room for the upper seeds to falter. The Hokies are the hottest team among them, but again, this is about the entirety of the season and building a strong entire resume, which coach Kenny Brooks’ squad keeps doing each week of ACC play.

The Atlantic-10 has largely been the best mid-major conference as multiple programs recorded historic seasons. However, late losses at the top severely hinder the A-10’s potential to send an at-large team alongside the automatic qualifier.

Saint Joseph’s is 25-3, tied for first in the conference but relegated to second due to Richmond holding the head-to-head edge. The Hawks’ loss to VCU took away their biggest strength on their resume — a lack of losses. A nonconference win over another bubble team in Villanova holds weight, as do wins over Temple and UAB, two of the American Athletics’ best. But missing a power conference win makes it tough considering Saint Joseph’s relatively poor strength of schedule.

The Hawks can still find their way into the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll need some luck.

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(Photo of McKenzie Forbes, left, and Rayah Marshall: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)