NFL salary cap much higher than expected, Chargers fans elated

Chargers fans were greeted with fantastic news this Friday morning, as the NFL officially announced the salary cap for 2024.

The announcement essentially pours water on the outpouring of pessimism in December, when reports came out suggesting the cap should actually be closer to $240,000,000. Jason Fitzgerald at OverTheCap.com had previously projected the cap to be $256,000,000, and this announcement from the NFL further supports the notion that Jason is one of the best in the business.

There are few teams more relieved at this news than the Chargers. The cap can be easily manipulated to add new pieces and extend core players, but one of the biggest challenges is getting cap compliant before the new year begins. Since trading is not allowed until the new league year, and teams have to be cap-compliant at the start of the new league year, teams that start the calendar year with a large cap deficit typically have to choose between cutting players with decent cap savings or take on cap “debt” by pushing salaries into future years via restructures.

Now that the Chargers have that extra cap space, the compliance equation has become much easier. If Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz decide they want to build their roster with Keenan Allen and Khalil Mack leading the way on either side of the ball, those two extensions alone would achieve immediate compliance.

Even though some may balk at the idea of extensions for both of these players, it’s important to remember that the cap compounds year-over-year. If Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen can be extended for APY’s slightly above Von Miller and Davante Adams, two players signed at similar ages with similar production over their careers, the effect of those numbers as a percentage of the cap will be considerably lower as the cap compounds against itself in 2025 and 2026.

For example, had the cap only jumped to $242 million as projected in December, that 7.8% growth as a trendline would compound to $261 million in 2025, and $281.4 million in 2026.

This more aggressive growth of 13.6% from 2023 would compound to $290.17 million in 2025, and $329.67 million in 2026.

This ramp-up in salary cap indicates the COVID debt is likely off the league’s books, allowing the adjusted TV deal money to finally start accelerating the cap as many have been predicting. This could be a year to consider heavy investments in longer-term deals.

What do you think, Bolts From the Blue? How does this make you feel about the upcoming roster moves?