ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — As far as the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs are concerned, time is a flat circle.
Following their 27-24 divisional-round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs — their third consecutive exit in this round and a fifth straight postseason without a Super Bowl appearance — the Bills locker room was so quiet, the only thing you could hear was the sound of ripping velcro across the room and the equipment staff working furiously to clear each stall of its individual bag.
Players all reacted differently. There were some quiet-talking huddles of players spread throughout the locker room. Some were emotional, kept to themselves and wore it on their faces.
Others buried themselves in their locker, like 6-foot-8 right tackle Spencer Brown, who, still in full game attire, somehow fit himself entirely in his stall with his back to the rest of the room as players headed home for the night. There was a forlorn feeling, with safety Micah Hyde and wide receiver Stefon Diggs sharing a moment without knowing what the future holds.
Many who have been in Buffalo through all, or at least some, of the postseason disappointments probably were thinking along the same lines.
*This* was supposed to be the year that was different. The year that the Bills were supposed to accomplish their goals. The year they finally got over the hump and made good on all the potential they’ve been building on since the moment Josh Allen walked in the door in 2018.
That’s what they truly believed once they returned from their Week 13 bye, just a little removed from a near-win in Philadelphia that left them at 6-6 and gasping for playoff air. They ripped off five regular-season wins to end the year, three over playoff teams, and watched as things around the league slowly but surely helped them move up the playoff ladder. The building seemed lighter. They were getting healthier. They were having fun again. Allen was having fun again.
They went from 11th in the AFC standings to second with their Week 18 win over the Miami Dolphins. Everything was coming up Bills. They found themselves with the easiest draw of the wild-card round against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were injured and starting a third-string quarterback, guaranteeing themselves a second home playoff game with a win.
“I think just the momentum we had coming into the playoffs,” tight end Dawson Knox said, “we just had all the confidence in the world. That wasn’t an issue at all. Having that home game, we were where we wanted to be.”
That home game is what they felt like could be the difference maker. After heading to Arrowhead Stadium and losing two straight postseason games to the Chiefs in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, at long last, they could finally get a playoff matchup against those Chiefs in Orchard Park.
Mahomes had never played in Buffalo in front of fans before. He’d never played on the road in the playoffs before. The Chiefs struggled to find their offensive footing all season.
Left tackle Dion Dawkins even poked the bear that is Mahomes on Thursday before the game.
“Pat has never been to the Bills stadium in full effect,” Dawkins said. “I’m excited. The environment will be different, and not to say it’s in our favor, but the stadium is our favor. The stadium is us. It helps us.”
The left tackle at one point even said “good luck,” with a grin. If ever there was an optimal chance to shed their little brother tag, beat the Chiefs and join the truly elite of the NFL, this was the one.
And then it all came undone. That supposedly struggling Chiefs offense came to life. It needed only 23 minutes of possession and 47 plays to average 3 more yards per play than the Bills. Mahomes and his broken passing attack averaged 9.4 yards per attempt. There was a late-game stop — the Bills’ only forced punt the entire game — and a gift of a fumble through the end zone by Mecole Hardman that bought the Bills new life after what looked to be certain death and a 34-24 Chiefs lead. Outside of that, Mahomes and the Chiefs played a perfect game.
Mahomes, who was acutely aware of this being his first road postseason game and had heard some of the noise, simply posted to his Instagram after the game, “Good luck,” under a photo of him scream celebrating in the Bills’ end zone. Don’t think that was a coincidence.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leaves the field at Highmark Stadium after a 27-24 win over the Buffalo Bills. (Mark Konezny / USA Today)
So it ends for the Bills, for the third time in four seasons, to their AFC overlords. And with it, after a wonderfully executed build from obscurity to AFC prominence, they squandered what might have been their best opportunity to win the world championship for the first time in franchise history. Some could argue it was 2021, but there was something special about the Cincinnati Bengals team that did the very thing the Bills couldn’t and have never been able to do — beat the Chiefs in the playoffs in Kansas City.
It’s been a different feeling every year the Bills have been eliminated from the playoffs. In 2019, with their wild-card loss to the Houston Texans, it was the beginning of something potentially special. In 2020, their blowout loss in the AFC Championship, they felt it was only a matter of time before it was their turn. In 2021, Allen’s performance in the “13 seconds” loss made people believe the Bills had arrived. In 2022, the preseason Super Bowl favorites were simply out of gas after a physically and mentally exhausting season, still with loads of talent and a stacked roster heading into 2023.
But this year, an entirely different feeling hangs over the organization. What was once burgeoning optimism is now a pestering pessimism for several fans. Four years of the same result, then building themselves back up each year thinking the next will be the breakthrough, wears on people — and rightfully so.
Now the Bills have reached a point in their build that may be the point of no return. They masterfully synced the prime of many of their top players to all hit at once. They navigated the salary cap, even with a humongous Allen contract on the books, to be able to retain almost everyone truly important to their operation. General manager Brandon Beane deserves credit for doing so. And they’ve backed it up to a certain degree with playoff appearances and wins almost each year of this five-year run.
But this offseason could feature more questions than they’ve ever had, with the players who previously were an integral piece of their identity. The Bills are facing a $47 million cap hit with Allen and are a projected $49 million in the red for 2024 cap space. Many of the questions they have to face involve their stars of the past five years.
- A 30-year-old Diggs, who accounts for a $27.9 million cap hit, didn’t have a 100-yard game in over three months and eclipsed 75 yards only twice in that span.
- Defensive end Von Miller turns 35 in March, had a sackless season and carries a nearly $24 million cap hit in 2024 that has a lot of dead cap.
- Hyde, one of the best safeties in franchise history, is 33 years old and out of contract.
- Jordan Poyer, who turns 33 in April, saw a downturn in production this season and is signed only through next year on a deal that they can easily move on from.
- Cornerback Tre’Davious White, 29, is coming off a torn Achilles injury and will account for a $16 million cap hit.
- Leonard Floyd, DaQuan Jones, Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph are all defensive line free agents who either are or will be in their 30s. A.J. Epenesa, Tim Settle and Poona Ford are free agents, too.
- Linebacker Matt Milano is coming off a significant leg injury and turns 30 in July.
- Center Mitch Morse turns 32 in April with one year left on his deal, though with his concussion history, it’s always a wonder if retirement is a consideration.
- Starting wide receiver Gabe Davis, whom they’ve always championed, is an unrestricted free agent.
With all of these independent situations, and with yet another premature playoff exit, there’s no telling how different this whole thing looks by the time training camp arrives in late July. The last time it felt somewhat stale and needed a change, Beane went to work with some big changes to individual positions. One year it was the defensive line, or the skill position players, or the offensive line.
But never have they faced this many questions with aging players and a mostly spoken-for cap sheet. It’s an entirely different point of the build, one that could yield a minor step back in 2024 due to all their complications.
The good news is they always have Allen to lean on for this next step of the build, whatever form it may take next season. As long as he is healthy, playing the brand of football he has, the Bills will have something to say about a playoff berth.
Allen returns, as does possibly his entire offensive line, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. On defense, they’ll get back Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, Milano, Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas. So it’s not as though the bottom is falling out. The Bills should remain competitive in 2024.
But this is an equally precarious time of their roster construction. It’s about potential outcomes and what is possible. Allen is not the upstart young quarterback who took Buffalo by storm anymore. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but also turns 28 in May. And the older he gets, the fewer prime years he has remaining — and certainly, his hard-knock playing style will need some adjustments the further he gets into his career, too.
These next two or three years can’t be taken for granted, so resting on laurels on the stars of yesteryear simply won’t cut it. Action is needed. Time isn’t running out, but it’s smart to begin acknowledging the clock of their franchise quarterback.
The 2024 offseason is a critical inflection point. If done correctly, they can extend this winning window for the next several years. But that will require turning over the roster in some key areas, and maybe even a slight step back next year.
A hard look in the mirror is mandatory.
Their Super Bowl hopes and dreams in the Allen era depend on it.
(Top photo of Josh Allen: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
