All across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone seemed to be planning for the recession they were convinced was coming. The biggest names at the biggest firms were predicting the S&P 50O Index was about to tumble and telling clients to prepare for a plunge in Treasury bond yields. Some strategists were talking up Chinese assets after Beijing’s sudden end to Covid-19 precautions. Together, these three calls—sell US stocks, buy Treasuries, buy Chinese stocks—formed the consensus view on Wall Street. Then came 2023. “I’ve never seen the consensus as wrong,” said Andrew Pease, the chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, which oversees around $290 billion in assets. “When I look at the sell side, everyone got burned.”
In the good call department, one retail stock that’s been a clear winner this year is Abercrombie & Fitch. The chain has gained 285%, its top annual showing since going public in 1996, which also made it the best in the S&P 1500 Index. It even managed to beat out artificial intelligence darling Nvidia. Here’s how they did it.
