2023 NFL MVP guide: Lamar Jackson and the challenger (almost) no one is talking about

Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Thursday, Mike Sando examines an emerging storyline around NFL quarterbacking.

There’s a reason NFL MVP odds keep shifting. It’s been a bad season for quarterbacks, with players at other positions failing to maintain record-setting paces. There has been no clear-cut favorite, pushing added importance onto the season’s final two weeks.

Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen took turns as favorites through the first five weeks.

Mahomes moved into the lead until Jalen Hurts eclipsed him in Week 12.

Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott took over in Week 14. Prescott pulled ahead a week later. Purdy retook the lead a week after that, then imploded with four interceptions during a Christmas night blowout defeat to Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens.

Jackson is now a solid betting favorite over Christian McCaffrey entering the final two weeks before voters cast ballots, even though his production does not approach the standard he set in 2019 as the most recent MVP to win the award unanimously.

This year, the cases against the leading MVP candidates seem stronger than the cases for them, but somebody is going to win. Here’s how I see the candidates, and why the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford could have an intriguing case, despite barely registering in the betting markets.

The ideal MVP candidate is a quarterback (the most important position) whose record-setting or otherwise elite production (which is easy to quantify) helps his team win with a highly-rated offense in spite of weak defense/special teams.

There is no greater way to demonstrate value in the NFL.

One of my first considerations when evaluating MVP candidates is to evaluate how their teams win the games.

For players on offense, specifically quarterbacks, I’ll separate team EPA into two buckets: one bucket for offense, the other for defense and special teams.

The QB Betrayal Index spawned from this, revealing the uphill fight players such as Drew Brees, Justin Herbert and Tony Romo faced trying to drive team success while the components beyond their control served as strong headwinds.

The chart below separates 2023 offensive EPA from combined defensive/special teams EPA for nine teams with MVP candidates. The teams are ordered from most to least offensive EPA. Hovering over or clicking on the bars reveals the candidates’ names.

Mahomes might be the best player in the game, but the Chiefs’ offense, with its minus-7.5 EPA for the season, is making it more difficult to win on the whole, a shocking reversal from previous form. Compared to 2022, Kansas City has lost 11.1 EPA per game on offense through the first 15 games, the second-largest drop behind the New York Giants (13.3).

The MVP is not the, “Look, I know we are just OK, but we would be way worse without this player” award. A quarterback should not win MVP unless his efforts translate to a certain level of production. That is difficult this season, when only nine offenses are producing positive EPA. The Seattle Seahawks actually rank 10th right now, one spot ahead of Kansas City. Does anyone think Seattle has a top-10 offense? No! But they do in the current environment.

Jackson’s Ravens stand out here as well. They have been good on offense, ranking eighth in EPA per play. Jackson has successfully transitioned to playing a new offensive style. He is arguably the most important player on the NFL’s best team. He should get credit for continuing to produce after losing multiple starting running backs and All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, his No. 1 target, to injuries.

It’s just impossible to look at the chart above or watch the games and conclude that the Ravens are winning primarily because of their offense. Jackson, with his 3,357 yards passing and 786 yards rushing, is a huge part of a smaller offensive pie.

What would the Ravens look like without him?

With their elite defense, they might look like the Cleveland Browns, who have cycled through four starting quarterbacks without getting even average production from any.

The Browns, like the Ravens, brought the 49ers’ offense to its knees. The Browns had to gut out a close victory over San Francisco because they did not have an upper-tier quarterback such as Jackson to lead their offense. The Browns have gone 10-5 despite ranking 28th in offensive EPA per play because their defense ranks No. 1 by a wide margin (the Ravens rank second).

Baltimore’s 33-19 victory over the 49ers was instructive. Jackson missed drive-sustaining throws early in the game and took a safety when a game official accidentally tripped him. This might have been disastrous for most teams facing the 49ers on the road, but Baltimore’s defense prevented San Francisco from jumping to a big lead. The 49ers had 12 points through three quarters. This allowed Jackson and the offense to bide their time without getting into must-pass situations, maintaining a stress-free environment for the offense.

As the game went along, Jackson contributed special plays to help Baltimore win big. When the game was finished, the Ravens’ defense (plus-10.1 EPA) and special teams (plus-0.8) accounted for about 11 of the 14 points separating the teams on the scoreboard. It was a great team victory.

Below we see the production for Jackson through 15 games in his 2019 MVP season and this season. He and the offense were much more responsible for Baltimore winning in that season. Since then, offense throughout the league has fallen off, which also should be taken into account.

If the MVP ideally would not go to a great quarterback who keeps an underperforming offense from being even worse (Mahomes), or to the good quarterback whose team wins primarily with defense (Jackson), it should not automatically go to the quarterback for the team with the most productive offense, either.

Purdy’s candidacy was always problematic because the 49ers’ scheme and weaponry do outsized work. Kyle Shanahan’s seven-season run as the 49ers’ coach makes this obvious.

From Shanahan’s 2017 hiring through last season, Mahomes and Drew Brees ranked 1-2 in EPA per pass play. Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers ranked 4-5.

The fact that Purdy’s predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, ranked third highlights team- and scheme-added value. Purdy has been better than Garoppolo, but he was going to need a nearly perfect season to win MVP. That is the type of season Purdy was enjoying until Monday. What happened against Baltimore might have killed his candidacy.

Tagovailoa’s candidacy is a bit similar in that his team’s scheme and weaponry siphon off outsized credit for his production, fairly or not. He ranks second to Purdy in EPA per pass play.

That is what makes Stafford an intriguing candidate if his Rams finish strong and reach the playoffs (a measure of team success should be required of the winner, in the absence of a historic season and mitigating circumstances).

Los Angeles’ low-budget defense is outperforming expectations with a No. 20 ranking in EPA per play, but the Rams’ special teams have been so bad that L.A. ranks 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The Rams are 8-6 when Stafford starts (he missed one game) and rank sixth in EPA per play on offense even with a disastrous performance at Green Bay in the one game Stafford missed (they would rank fourth if we excluded that performance).

The Rams took the Ravens to overtime at Baltimore, with Stafford passing for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Against Baltimore, the Rams gained more than 15 yards on 30 percent of passes when gaining that many yards was possible. No other Ravens opponent has hit even 20 percent.

What would the Rams look like without Stafford? We saw what they looked like without him during a 20-3 defeat at Green Bay: three points, 10 first downs, 187 yards.

These were not Vince Lombardi’s Packers on defense, either.

Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito registered their season-best marks for EPA per pass play against Green Bay. The since-benched Russell Wilson registered his second-best mark of the season against the Packers. Mayfield became the first visiting player in Lambeau Field’s 417-game history to post the highest possible passer rating (158.3).

But when the Rams visited Lambeau without Stafford, backup Brett Rypien completed 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards and an interception, plus a lost fumble. His 45.2 passer rating was 30 points lower than the ratings for any other Packers opponent this season.

Meanwhile, in games against the elite defenses of Cleveland and Baltimore, Stafford passed for 573 yards with six touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks and a 106.4 passer rating. The Rams amassed 20.8 EPA on offense in those games, beating Cleveland 36-19 and losing to Baltimore when the Ravens returned a punt for a touchdown during overtime.

If Stafford finishes the season with a playoff-clinching victory over the 49ers, his candidacy should come to life.

Quarterbacks have won the past 10 MVP awards. McCaffrey and Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill are the non-quarterbacks with the strongest cases among offensive players.

Hill’s candidacy is stalling after he suffered an ankle injury against Tennessee and missed a game. He’s playing through the injury now and, as the chart below reveals, would need 325 yards over the final two weeks to overtake Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. Hill was once on pace to break the record in 16 games. He had 99 yards against Dallas in Week 15.

McCaffrey is not on a record statistical pace for running backs, but he’s enjoying an outstanding season. His 128.8-yard average for scrimmage yards per game puts him within striking distance of the past four running backs to win MVP honors. LaDainian Tomlinson (149.5 in 2006), Marshall Faulk (148.3 in 2000) and Adrian Peterson (140.9 in 2012) were even more productive.

Cleveland’s ability to win 10 games (and counting) with such terrible production from its offense should bring the Browns’ best defensive player, Myles Garrett, into the discussion. Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win MVP, in 1986. Garrett is great, but is he ’86 L.T. great? Should that even be the standard in a season when defense has dominated?

The final two weeks could be critical for tipping the MVP discussion toward a single candidate.

The Cowboys’ Prescott and the Bills’ Allen should not be overlooked.

Prescott ranks third and Allen fourth in EPA per pass play. Over an eight-game stretch, Prescott had 23 touchdown passes with two interceptions, the type of run that helped put Cam Newton’s MVP candidacy over the top in 2015. Allen carried the Bills when the team was struggling to win consistently; the team has helped him out more recently, to the point where Allen joked after beating Dallas that he felt “like the kid that didn’t do anything in the class project but got an A” for his work anyway.

The chart below shows passing and rushing EPA by game for Prescott, Allen and the other leading quarterback MVP candidates. We also see averages for a composite of the past 10 actual MVPs, all quarterbacks. Team dynamics affect EPA differently for different quarterbacks, but it’s still useful to see overall production.

Jackson has a chance to cement his status as the favorite in finishing games against the Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Oddsmakers say the award is his to lose, but in this unusual season for quarterbacks, perceptions have shifted quickly.

(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Loren Elliott / Getty Images)

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