As the NBA season marches on we are in for a jolly Christmas Day slate with five games on the schedule. The 298th regular season meeting between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics is the game I’m most looking forward to.
These are two of the most storied franchises in the league, having won 17 championships each. Two of the past three Christmas games have been won by the Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics UNDER 234.0 points. This should be a low scoring affair. The Celtics rank third in points allowed per 100 possessions while the Lakers rank eighth. Boston also plays at a slower pace. The total has gone under in five of the Lakers last five home games.
LeBron James OVER 36.5 points and assists. On Christmas day, he should continue his habit of shining on the big stage, especially against a high-profile team like the Celtics. Over the last eight games, James has averaged 28.0 points and 9.5 assists per game. Over that time period, James has had a usage rate of 29.1%, so he is well positioned to surpass this number. In his last five Christmas Day games, he has averaged 28 points and 7.4 assists. In his Lakers’ career, James has averaged 28.0 points and 8.6 assists against the Celtics.
Jalen Brunson OVER 26.5 points. Over the last five games, he averaged 20.4 field goal attempts and 30.6 points. On the inside, the Bucks play well defensively, but on the perimeter, they can be exploited. Milwaukee gives up the fifth most points per game to point guards. Brunson scored 36 points against the Bucks on Saturday night.
Tyrese Maxey OVER 35.5 points, rebounds and assists. He’s surpassed this line in three consecutive games. Maxey’s averaged 26.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game this season. Based on the spread, this should be a close and competitive game. The Heat give up the fourth most assists per game to point guards. Also, Maxey’s usage rate should go through the roof with Joel Embiid ruled out with an ankle injury.
Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns OVER 236.5 points. This has the makings of a high scoring game with the plethora of offensive playmakers on the court such as Luka Doncic, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. The Mavericks rank 8th in points scored per 100 possessions while the Suns rank 14th. The total has gone over in 12 of Dallas’ last 17 road games. When these two teams played last season, they combined for 256 points. I expect history to repeat itself on Monday.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics; Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
12 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 22-7 (13-16-0)
Knicks: 16-12 (15-12-1)
Line: Bucks (-3.5) Total: 240.5
Money Line: Bucks (-155), Knicks (+135)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 1.4, straight up 55%, 244.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin)
Knicks: Jericho Sims, (OUT – Ankle); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle); DaQuan Jeffries, (GTD – Illness)
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
2:30 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 15-14 (13-15-1)
Nuggets: 21-10 (14-16-1)
Line: Nuggets (-6.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Warriors (+190), Nuggets (-250)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 5.9, straight up 70%, 234.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension); Andrew Wiggins, (GTD – Illness); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Calf)
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
5 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 22-6 (14-12-2)
Lakers: 16-14 (13-17-0)
Line: Celtics (-2.5) Total: 234.5
Money Line: Celtics (-140), Lakers (+115)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 5.4, straight up 69%, 232.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Ankle); Luke Kornet, (GTD – Thigh); Svi Mykhailiuk, (GTD – Heel)
Lakers: Gabe Vincent, (GTD – Knee)
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
8 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 20-8 (20-8-0)
Heat: 17-12 (13-16-0)
Line: 76ers (-1.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: 76ers (-125), Heat (+100)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 1.2, straight up 55%, 226.6 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: De’Anthony Melton, (GTD – Thigh); Joel Embiid, (GTD – Ankle); Mo Bamba, (GTD – Illness); Nicolas Batum, (GTD – Hamstring); Patrick Beverley, (GTD – Heel)
Heat: Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee); Jimmy Butler, (GTD – Calf)
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
10:30 p.m. Footprint Center, Phoenix
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 17-12 (15-14-0)
Suns: 14-14 (10-17-1)
Line: Suns (-5.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+155), Suns (-200)
BPI Projection: Suns by 1.7, straight up 56%, 236.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Dereck Lively II, (GTD – Ankle); Josh Green, (GTD – Elbow); Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Heel); Maxi Kleber, (GTD – Toe)
Suns: Bradley Beal, (OUT – Ankle); Josh Okogie, (GTD – Hip); Jusuf Nurkic, (GTD – Personal); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
