Best NFL Week 16 prop bets: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

We identify our favorite player prop bets to consider for the Detroit Lions Week 16 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.

• By
  
  Erik Schlitt
  
• on December 24, 2023 10:45 am

The Detroit Lions are on the road in Week 16, taking on the Minnesota Vikings with a chance to clinch the division. In what figures to be an exciting game, the folks over at DraftKings Sportsbook have provided us with some interesting play props and odds for the game.

Let’s take a look at some of our favorites.

Jared Goff, OVER 23.5 passing completions (-120)

Because of the Vikings’ approach to defense—focusing on stopping the run and running a confusing combination of coverage and blitzing concepts—teams throw the ball roughly 36 times a game against them. Additionally, because of this quick-passing approach, the Vikings are allowing a 69.9% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks—the highest rate in the NFL.

Over the last five games, four of the five quarterback combinations the Vikings have faced have thrown the ball at least 35 times, completing at least 26 passes:

• Bengals’ Jake Browning: 29 of 42
• Raiders’ Aidan O’Connell: 21 of 32
• Bears’ Justin Fields: 27 of 37
• Broncos’ Russell Wilson: 27 of 35
• Saints’ Carr/Winston: 26 of 43

On the season, Goff averages 24 completions on 35.6 passing attempts, which is almost exactly what he produced last week against the Broncos: 24 of 34, with a 70.6% completion rate.

With the division on the line, look for the Vikings to be very aggressive and the Lions to have easy checkdown outlets at the ready. If the game is close, those quick passes will add up.

Jaymyr Gibbs, OVER 74.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

Over the last month (Weeks 12-15), the Lions have really focused on turning Gibbs loose on the ground and he has rewarded them with 100, 66, 60, and 54 rushing yards performances—making Gibbs projected rushing line of 47.5 yards (-115) in this game very tempting.

But because of the Vikings’ aggressive approach, and Gibbs being such an impactful player as a quick passing outlet, I don’t believe the Lions will be married to the path in which they get him the ball, they’ll just want the ball in his hands. I anticipate this game to be closer to how the Lions approached Weeks 10 and 11 with Gibbs: the first game against the Bears (he had 36 yards rushing and 59 receiving) and the Chargers (77 rushing and 35 receiving).

Therefore, even though the rushing yards line is very tempting to grab, I’d rather take on the higher total yards output with multiple ways of producing—a number he has eclipsed five of the last six weeks.

Josh Reynolds, OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115)

Over the first two months of the season, Reynolds was a mainstay in this weekly article, producing well over expectations through Week 7, then in Week 8 went into a rut. But over the last two weeks, Reynolds has regained his rhythm with Goff and has produced 44 and 41 receiving yard outputs, including big plays of 21 and 27 yards.

As I discussed in my keys to the game preview, while the Vikings want to force opponents to take quicker passing options (typically short and over the middle), when opponents have taken shots on Minnesota’s defense, it’s been deep on the right sideline that has been open:

This is prime Josh Reynolds territory, who has the potential to exceed this receiving mark on a single reception.

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